CNOOC 0883

Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:59 pm

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Why CNOOC Has 25% Downside: Credit Suisse

By Shuli Ren

Credit Suisse today downgraded China upstream oil producer CNOOC (883.Hong Kong/CEO) to Sell.

The bank’s new price target of 7 Hong Kong dollars (previously HK$11.50) promises another 24% downside.

Why is Credit Suisse turning bearish?

First, oil prices have corrected around 20% since peaking in June, but CNOOC’s share prices barely budged. As the summer driving season draws to a close, Credit Suisse estimates U.S. gasoline demand will see a 500kb/d retreat.

“The extremely weak Asia refining margin (US$5.8/bbl, a five-year low) could also induce more refinery outages, dampening crude oil demand in Asia. A peak in oil prices typically marks a peak in CNOOC’s share price,” wrote analysts Horace Tse and Jessie Xu.

Second, CNOOC is hitting a glass ceiling in terms of cost-cutting. While “CNOOC has done a remarkable job in cost discipline over the downturn”, operating expenditure is now at $8.80 per barrel, close to the trough level in 2009. So there is hardly any room left for further cost cutting.

Third, CNOOC is not as cheap as it looks. While it trades at only 4 times enterprise value-to-earnings (EV/EBITDA), versus global average of 8 times, CNOOC is running out of oil to drill.

Its oil reserve life is only 5.6 years, versus the global average of 12 years. This is a point raised at this year’s Hong Kong Sohn Conference.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... it-suisse/

CNOOC fell 0.7% today, while the Hang Seng Index rose 1.2%. Brent crude gained 0.2% to $44.35 in Asia hours.
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:18 pm

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CNOOC 3Q Oil & Gas Sales Revenue Down 15.2% YoY to RMB30.75B

CNOOC (00883.HK) -0.220 (-2.056%) Short selling $202.26M; Ratio 33.815% announced the key operation data for the third quarter.

During the period, the unaudited oil and gas sales revenue of the company reached approximately RMB30.75 billion, down 15.2% yearly, mainly due to the decrease of average realized oil and gas prices and production decline.

During the period, the company’s average realized oil price decreased 13.5% yearly to US$42.26 per barrel, which is in line with lower international oil prices.

The company’s average realized gas price was US$5.22 per thousand cubic feet, representing a decrease of 18.6% yearly, mainly because the company adjusted its sales price to certain natural gas customers through negotiation following the decrease of onshore natural gas price in China.

For the third quarter of 2016, the company's capital expenditure reached approximately RMB11.67 billion (capitalized interests RMB0.38 billion not included), down 20.9% yearly, mainly because the company continued cost control and efficiency improvement efforts and decreased capital expenditures in response to the low oil price environment.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:02 pm

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<Research Report>M Stanley: CNOOC's Output Decline Minor Negative; Rising Capex Positive to CHINA OILFIELD

Morgan Stanley, in its report, said CNOOC (00883.HK) recorded an aggregate production decline of 7.7% yearly in 3Q16, below market expectation.

That is expected to bring a negative impact in the near term, and the broker expected this might imply a downward revision in CNOOC's production targets for 2017-19, which will be released in early 2017.

Due to the low margin, the broker said the oil price will play a more important role in earnings than volume.

Analysis suggested an oil price increase of US$10/boe could lift the company's EBIT by about RMB30 billion, while a 10% volume decline will hurt EBIT by about RMB5 billion.

As a result, CNOOC's cost cutting and gradual recovery of crude oil price could largely offset the negative impact from production declines. The broker rated CNOOC at Overweight with target price of $14.57.

During the 3Q16 results conference call, the management retained its full-year capex target and expected a surge in capex in 4Q16 compared to previous quarters.

If crude oil prices remain at current levels, the company is highly likely to raise its capex in 2017.

As CHINA OILFIELD (02883.HK) 's revenue and earnings are highly correlated with CNOOC's capex, these are also favourable to CHINA OILFIELD, thus the broker gave a target price of $10.06.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:17 pm

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3 Reasons To Buy CNOOC

By Shuli Ren

First, dividend. CNOOC announced a final dividend of 0.23 Hong Kong dollars a share, bringing the 2016 total dividend to HK$0.35. That translates to a 4% dividend yield.


Bernstein Research‘s Neil Beveridge thinks CNOOC has over 20 years of reserves given so-called 1P (proved) and 2P (proved and probable) reserves could be higher


Third, cost discipline. CNOOC lowered its break-even price again. All-in cost has fallen from $40 a barrel in 2015 to $35 per barrel, while its cash cost has declined from $15 to $12 per barrel.


Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... buy-cnooc/
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Fri Apr 28, 2017 7:38 am

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CNOOC revenue rises sharply despite drop in production

by Koey Yip

Oil giant CNOOC (0883) posted a 55.8 percent increase in oil and gas revenue in the first quarter of this year due mainly to the rise of crude oil prices in the international market.

Revenue from oil and gas amounted to 38.4 billion yuan (HK$43.34 billion) despite a 4.2 percent year-on-year fall in production of oil equivalent.

Meanwhile, Sinopec (0386) said it would pay US$1.68 billion (HK$13.1 billion) for a 50 percent stake of Shanghai SECCO Petrochemical.

CNOOC achieved an average oil price of US$51.64 per barrel, a 58.7 percent increase from a year ago in line with international price trends.

"It helped drive up the company's revenue," said CNOOC chief financial officer Zhong Hua.

He said capital expenditures in the first quarter were 8.67 billion yuan, down 10.6 percent from a year earlier. The fall was due to adjustments in CNOOC's work plan and schedule during the period.

CNOOC's capex target for this year will remain unchanged at 60 to 70 billion yuan.

Source: The Standard
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:11 pm

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<Post Result>Brokers' Latest Ratings & TPs on CNOOC (00883.HK) (Table)

CNOOC (00883.HK) went well this morning. The company yesterday (24 August) announced the result for the six months ended 30 June 2017.

During the period, the company swung into profit of RMB16.25 billion (higher than market expectation of RMB10.838-13.705 billion), as compared to a loss of RMB7.735 billion a year ago.

The EPS equaled RMB0.36; an interim dividend of HK$0.2 was declared.

During the period, the turnover rose 38.2% yearly to RMB92.362 billion, beating market expectation; sales revenue from oil and gas rose 36.1% yearly to RMB74.94 billion.

Brokers updated their ratings and target prices:

Brokers/ Ratings/ Target prices($)
Credit Suisse/ Outperform/ 13.2->14.5
Deutsche Bank/ Buy/ 11.56->12.35
Jefferies/ Buy/ 12.25
Goldman Sachs/ Buy (newly included in CL-Buy)/ 10.25->11.5
CICC/ Buy/ 10.8->11
BOC International/ Buy/ 10.14->10.89
BNP Paribas/ Hold->Buy/ 9->10.7
Citigroup/ Buy/ 9.7->10.6
JPMorgan/ Overweight/ 10.5
Huatai Financial/ Hold/ 10

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:13 pm

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<Research Report>Citi Raises CNOOC (00883.HK) Target to $10.6; Rated Buy

Citigroup, in its report, said CNOOC (00883.HK) 1H17 results came in a strong beat on
consensus, with EPS at 36 fen per share, and interim div HK20 cents, implying 47%
payout and 4.4% dividend yield on annualized basis.

The management guided to achieve operating cash positive on a project in Canada in FY17. Though still loss making on the bottom line, improving financials there lowers the risk of
further impairment.

The broker revised the earnings forecast (FY17 up 5%, FY18-19 down 6-7%), increasing the
target price to $10.6 (from $9.7) and maintaining Buy rating.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:15 pm

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<Research Report>Deutsche Lifts CNOOC (00883.HK) Target to $12.35; Interim Results Beat Estimates

Deutsche Bank, in its report, said CNOOC (00883.HK) reported 1H17 net profit of RMB16.25 billion, beating the broker's estimate.

CNOOC beat Deutsche's estimate on cost cuts yet again with its all-in-cost averaging only US$33.1/boe, down 10% yearly.

Production decline was also lower than expected at -1.5% yearly, achieving 52% of its full year target.

CNOOC also continued to reward shareholders and paid out a dividend of RMB0.2/sh, representing a 56% payout ratio or about 5% yield.

The broker reiterated Buy with new target price of HK$12.35 (from HK$11.56).

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:16 pm

<Research Report>G Sachs Includes CNOOC in CL Buy; Target Lifted by 12% to $11.5

Goldman Sachs maintained the investment rating of CNOOC (00883.HK) at Buy and included the company's H shares and ADR to the Conviction List.

The latest 12-month target price for H shares was lifted by 12% to $11.5, showing 26% upside than yesterday's closing price.

The research house said that CNOOC 1H results topped estimates in which EBIDA was 5% higher than expectation.

Production seemed to hit bottom in the first half of the year while operating costs saw a continuous decline.

In addition, the company has achieved a turnaround for Canada's Long Lake oil sands project. Hence, it is foresaw that CNOOC will report a substantial growth for reserve in year-end, which may boost dividend.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: CNOOC 0883

Postby winston » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:17 pm

<Research Report>C Suisse Lifts CNOOC (00883.HK) Target to $14.5; Rated Outperform

Credit Suisse, in its report, said CNOOC (00883.HK) reported robust 1H17 results, significantly ahead of expectations.

1H17 EPS was RMB0.36, 16% ahead of the Credit Suisse estimate and 44% ahead of consensus.

Dividend was also a positive, with 1H17 DPS of HK$0.2 up 67% yearly, implying 5% yield.

The broker raised its 2017-19 EPS estimate by 14-39% after factoring in a structurally lower-cost trend.

The target price was lifted to $14.5 (from $13.2) amid a lower cost base, reiterating Outperform.

The broker said cost efficiency again surprised on the upside, with all-in costs - 9% yearly to US$31.7/boe - it means CNOOC is able to generate US$19/boe EBIT per barrel at US$50 oil.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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