China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Fri Dec 16, 2016 7:49 am

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Trouble brews at dairy giants

by Carrie Chen

Shares of China Mengniu Dairy Company (2319) dived 2.78 percent to HK$15.4 yesterday after it issued a profit warning saying it expected "a substantial loss" for 2016.

The firm recorded a net profit of 2.37 billion yuan last year.

Mengniu blamed the situation mainly on the potential losses at its subsidiary, Yashili International Holdings (1230). Mengniu has also been striving to optimize its raw milk powder inventory level by selling excessive quantity at market price, which resulted in a loss. Whats more, an associated company of Mengniu is also expected to record a loss.

Yashili also issued a profit warning yesterday saying it is expected to record a significant loss for this year. The firm said an increase in imported international brand infant milk formula products and imported products through cross-border e-commerce channels had a huge impact on revenue and net profit.

Also, the internal consolidation and channel transformation of the firm is more time and cost consuming. But Yashili still remains positive on the market condition of the milk powder industry as the infant formula recipe registration regime is to implement in the mainland.

Shares of Yashili slid 3.23 percent to HK$1.5 yesterday.

Source: The Standard
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:17 pm

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<Research Report>Citi Lifts MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) Target to $17.8; Rated Buy

Citigroup, in its report, said that MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK)'s 2016 profit warning was mainly due to one-off and non-cash goodwill impairment loss at YASHILI INT'L (01230.HK).

The management focused more on profitability over sales growth and expected the top-line growth in 2017 will outperform the industry.

As revealed by the report, the company's new organizational structure put division into emphasis, having closer cooperation with Danone, Arla Foods and CH MODERN D (01117.HK).

The target price of MENGNIU DAIRY was raised to $17.8 from $17.02, with a rating of Buy.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:26 pm

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<Research Report>C Suisse Cuts MENGNIU DAIRY Target by 8% to $17.5; Rated Outperform

Credit Suisse, in its report, said upon the profit alert of MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK), the broker revised down the company's target price by 8% from $19 to $17.5, after cutting its 2016/17 earnings forecast by 104%/9%.

The broker kept Outperform because the company's reform is building a foundation for long-term growth despite a bumpy road in the near term.

Credit Suisse cut the 2016 earnings forecast of Mengniu from RMB2.4 billion to a net loss of RMB100 million, mainly on RMB2.3 billion impairment loss of Yashili goodwill; RMB300 million more COGS in 2H16 caused by selling excessive high cost raw milk powder; SG&A to sales lifting 110 bps for 2H16.

Credit Suisse also cut 2017 earnings forecast by 9% to RMB2.8 billion. However, the broker projected the gross profit margin to rise by 20 bps yearly, as lower milk powder cost offsets other cost increase; and projected SG&A to sales narrows 60 bps yearly.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:00 pm

MENGNIU DAIRY Hopes Sales in Coming Few Years to Reach High Single-digit Growth

After the shareholders' meeting, MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) CEO Jeffery Lu Minfang said the sales growth of the group's dairy products rose about 6% in 1H16 and reached double-digit in 2H16.

Therefore, Lu expected to reach a double-digit growth in 2016, outperforming peers.

He also expected to maintain high single-digit growth in the coming few years.

Lu also said the development of pasturized milk in China is slower than other developed markets, and the group will cooperate with Danone, YASHILI INT'L (01230.HK) and etc.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:53 pm

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China Mengniu Dairy posts 751 million yuan loss as milk powder unit Yashili dents profits

Chief executive Lu Minfang sees China’s dairy market growing 3 to 4 per cent this year

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/china-busi ... ilk-powder
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Fri Apr 07, 2017 1:02 pm

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<Research Report>Deutsche: China Dairy Industry Recovers; Buy for MENGNIU DAIRY, Yili

Deutsche Bank, in its report, said its channel check and NBS data indicated early signs of growth recovery for dairy products in China. This could be helped by improving demand and more balanced supply in 2017.

The broker kept Buy on both MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) and Yili (600887.SH), with target price of HK$18.20 and RMB22 respectively.

The broker expected Mengniu to deliver higher earnings growth, driven by margin recovery.

The broker forecasted 20% earnings CAGR for Mengniu in 2016-18, helped by recovering industry growth and recurring net margin expansion from 3.8% in 2016 to 4.6% in 2018 (estimate).

First, the broker expected Mengniu's subsidiary CH MODERN D (01117.HK) to turn profitable in 2018, helped by recovering milk prices.

Second, Deutsche Bank expected Mengniu's subsidiary YASHILI INT'L (01230.HK) to turn a profit in 2018, helped by implementation of the new regulation and streamlining operations.

Third, the broker expected Mengniu's liquid milk margin to improve, benefited by operating leverage and a mix upgrade.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Wed May 31, 2017 9:24 am

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China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK)
Share Price: HKD15.84
Target Price: HKD19.39
Recommendation: Buy

All looks good

Maintain BUY. Our latest discussion with Mengniu suggests it is on track to achieve its full-year guidance, premised on accelerating sales growth and stable profitability.

Our TP HKD19.39 is based on 25x 2017F PER, at the high end of the sector range, given structurally improving competitive strengths over peers.

Mengniu benefits from consumption upgrades and secular demand for dairy products. Mengniu is our top pick among F&B names given its structural story.

Source: Kim Eng
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:01 pm

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Mengniu 蒙牛乳业 (2319 HK)

Based on our channel checks, sales performance for Mengniu is on track.

This suggests its core business has been delivering healthy growth on a gradual recovery in end-demand and normalised competition.

We estimate sales to grow 19.9% and a 20.5% increase in net profit is attributed to gross profit margin improvements in 2017.

Although Mengniu’s earnings would still be dragged by its associates, China Modern Dairy and Yashili in the short term, it has been reducing China Modern Dairy stake from 61.3% in Apr 17 to 49.57% in Aug 17.

We maintain a BUY rating and raise our target price to HK$17.40 pegged at 22x PE, on par with its historical average.

http://www.mengniuir.com/html/
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:15 am

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Mengniu expects boost from e-commerce

by Joyce Chen

China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319) expects second-half gross profit to remain flat from the first half, while revenue from e-commerce is expected to grow 50 percent with a tight partnership with Alibaba.

Whole-year revenue is expected to record high single-digit growth, said chief executive Jeffrey Lu Minfang.

The price of raw milk will remain low in the second half compared with last year as supply exceeds demand, he added.

Subsidiary Yashili International Holdings (1230) saw sales lag behind the market average, but they are expected to stop falling in the second half, said Lu.

Mengniu sold 30 million shares in China Modern Dairy Holdings (1117) earlier this month to Cofco Dairy Investments for HK$41.4 million.

Lu said the sale was not due to China Modern's bad performance in the first half, but for a synergy effect between itself and the buyer.

The firm said on Wednesday its first- half net profit rose 4.7 percent.

Source: The Standard

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-n ... 0901&sid=2
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:55 am

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Accelerating 3Q17 Sales Growth Points To Upside Risk

Our recent channel checks suggest China Mengniu’s 3Q17 sales growth has accelerated to mid-teens level (from 8% yoy growth in 1H17), backing up our positive view on China’s dairy sector for 2H17 and 2018.

Mengniu remains as our top pick in the consumer staples space and we raise our target price to HK$25.00. Maintain BUY.

PE 28

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 00eae4e632
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