China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:25 pm

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<Research Report>BofAML Lifts MENGNIU DAIRY Target to $25.6 on Demand Recovery, Eased Competition


Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in its report, said that MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) and YASHILI INT'L (01230.HK) may see a turnaround next year given demand recovery for dairy products, less intensive competition and effective self-help measures. Hence, the research house maintained a positive view on MENGNIU DAIRY.

However, the research house cut 2017 EPS forecast of MENGNIU DAIRY by 4% owing to forex loss and rising option expenses, while maintaining that of 2018-2019 unchanged.

2017-2019 core EPS CAGR is expected to exceed 20%.

The target price was lifted to $25.6 from $23, factoring in 24x 2018E P/E and stronger free cash flow. The investment rating was reiterated at Buy.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:54 pm

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China Mengniu Dairy 蒙牛集团 (2319 HK)

The third quarter of 2017 sales growth has accelerated to mid-teens level, from 8% yoy growth in 1H17 based on our channel checks.

The distributors’ inventory level has also dropped to 8-10 days and retail discount has been narrowing.

The encouraging figures echo our view on structural recovery in China’s dairy industry in 2H17.

Undergoing product premiumisation and key products focus strategy, the sales and gross margin should be boosted.

Although the management guided a high single-digit sales growth in 2017, we see an upside risk on better than expected 2H17 sales. We recommend a BUY rating.

http://www.mengniuir.com/html/index.php

Source: UOBKH
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:10 pm

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Feb 5, 2018

Premiumisation to drive topline growth

We estimate Mengniu’s topline growth reached 10.6% in 2H17F and will reach 8.8% yoy in FY18F, driven by continuous premiumisation and rising dairy demand.

We expect raw milk price to increase 2% yoy in FY18F, but its product mix upgrade could help to offset the cost pressure and maintain stable GPM of 35.0% in FY18F.

We cut FY17F EPS by 12.5% to factor in larger-than-expected losses from CMD; but raise FY18-19F EPS by 2.3-4.2% as we expect stronger topline growth then.

We forecast strong EPS growth of 50.4% yoy for FY18F. Reiterate Add on Mengniu
with target price of HK$28.30.

Reiterate Add with a higher DCF-based TP of HK$28.30

We maintain our Add rating on Mengniu with strong EPS growth forecast of 50.4% yoy in FY18F, supported by strong sales growth momentum, operating margin (OPM) expansion and significant reduction in losses from CMD and Yashili.

Our TP is raised to HK$28.30 as we roll over to end-FY18F DCF valuation.

Potential positive catalysts are :
1) stronger sales growth in FY18F, and
2) potential selling price hikes.

Downside risks include :
1) higher raw milk price in 2018F, and
2) intensifying competition.

Source: CIMB

https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/AWdX5H9yvAQ ... 02RgA2.pdf
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:14 am

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Mar 27, 2018

<Blue Chip Results>MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) Swings into Annual Profit RMB2.048B; Final Div RMB0.12

MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) announced annual result ended December 2017.

The turnover rose 11.9% year on year to RMB60.156 billion.

The loss swung into profit of RMB2.048 billion.

EPS was RMB0.526.

A dividend of RMB0.12 was declared against a dividend of RMB0.089 in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:40 am

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<Result Ann>MENGNIU DAIRY Interim Net Profit Up 38.5% to RMB1.562B

MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) announced the interim results ended June 2018.

Revenue hiked 17% yearly to RMB34.474 billion.

Net profit of RMB1.562 billion was reported, up 38.5%.

EPS equaled 40 fen. No dividend was declared.

During the period, gross profit was RMB13.522 billion, up 28.8%.

Gross profit margin increased by 3.6 ppts to 39.2%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:00 am

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<Research Report>M Stanley Trims MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK) TP to $29; Kept Overweight

Morgan Stanley issued a research report covering MENGNIU DAIRY (02319.HK), pointing out that it holds its positive outook for the Mainland dairy industry mainly due to upgrade in product portfolio, sales growth and speeding up in integration.

MENGNIU DAIRY is maintained Overweight with target price cut to $29 from $32.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:11 pm

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MENGNIU DAIRY(2319)

Analysis:

Mengniu`s interim result is better than our expectations. revenue increasing by 17% y.o.y. to RMB34.474 billion.

Gross profit margin increased by 3.6 percentage points to 39.2%, of which 7% came from sales growth, the rest reflected the improvement of product portfolio and the decline in the discount rate, driving the increase in the average selling price.

Operating profit margin fell by 0.5 percentage points to 5.6%, reflecting the company`s strategy of placing gross profit returns into brand investment.

It sponsored the World Cup during the period. Net profit was driven by revenue and gross profit margin expansion, increasing by 38.5% to RMB1.562 billion.

During the interim result conference, the management team has raised the full-year growth target from low-double-digit growth to middle-double-digit growth, indicating its confidence in the growth prospects.

Facing the economic slowdown in second half of the year, the team emphasizes that it will respond price wars through innovation capabilities and brand investment.

Strategy:
Buy-in Price: $22.40, Target Price: $28.50, Cut Loss Price: $20.00

Source: Phillips
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:15 am

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Strong sales growth momentum continues

Mengniu remains confident of meeting its 2018 guidance of mid-teens sales growth and flattish EBIT margin.

Strong topline growth was catalysed by high-end products and new products.

We also forecast Mengniu’s OPM to expand 0.9% pt yoy in 2H18F.

We maintain our Add call with a DCF-based TP of HK$28.50 (WACC: 8.8%).

Source: CIMB

https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/69EUNwBw7nD ... kEcVg2.pdf
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:25 am

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MENGNIU DAIRY(2319)

Analysis:

China Mengniu Dairy (2319) continues to pursue the "Excellent Milk Source Operation and Management Model" and pushes forward with strengthening deployment of domestic and overseas milk sources.

Currently, the milk sources of Mengniu are primarily in Northwestern, Northeastern China and Northern China, areas ideal for rearing dairy cattle hence afford prime quality milk supply.

Additionally, the Group has milk sources now in such countries as Denmark, Australia and New Zealand, which are known for their rich milk supply.

During the first half of 2018, the percentage of milk sources of Mengniu from standardized ranches and scaled farms was maintained at 100%.

At the same time, the Group strives to promote new product launches and makes progress in developing new markets for fresh milk, cheese, plant-based nutrition productions. (I do not hold the above stock)

Strategy:
Buy-in Price: $25.00, Target Price: $27.00, Cut Loss Price: $23.50

Source: Phillips
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Re: China Mengniu Dairy 2319

Postby winston » Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:03 pm

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China Mengniu Dairy Company

Driven by demand for more nutritional products, the dairy industry has seen robust development in recent years.

Going forward, UOBKH expects the demand to remain sustainable.

Within the dairy industry, China Mengniu Dairy Company (Mengniu) continues to stand out on the back on its effective marketing strategies, innovative products pipeline and developed distribution channels.

Management has been sticking to its aggressive “wolf spirit” and this has led to the subsequent turnaround of its subsidiaries/associates.

It is no wonder why Mengniu’s share price surged in 2018 despite most of the market being down due to the weak economy.

BUY, TP HK$29.50

Source: UOBKH
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