InvestIdeas

I know that GS has reinstated Premium Travel a few months ago. Not sure about the other IBs.

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Cathay Pacific CEO sees recovery in premium travel

SINGAPORE, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's leading air carrier Cathay Pacific Airways <0293.HK> is seeing some recovery in its business and first-class travel, CEO Tony Tyler said on Friday.

"At the moment we are seeing some recovery in premium travel, that is largely seasonal," Tyler told a conference in Singapore.

Not vested. From Phillips:-


Risks
Impact by recessed global economy, bearish of aviation demand may go beyond expectation;
Hedging loss will further enlarge due to global crude oil price fluctuations;
Crisis such as terrorism, flu and wars;
Air fare war.


Valuation

As for valuation, based on its P/B trend in the past nine years, we think 0.9x-1.6x is its reasonable PB range for stable growth and 1.8x as the upward prospect.

Given the good reputation and strong competitiveness, the Company is reasonable to have some premium.

We give cautiously 1.6 x P/B. Based on 2011E BVPS, our 12m TP will be HK$ 23.2, 20% up from the present price, rating Buy.

Not vested. From Phillips:-

Risks

1) Impact by recessed global economy, bearish of aviation demand may go beyond expectation;
2) Hedging loss will further enlarge due to global crude oil price fluctuations
3) Crisis such as terrorism, flu and wars
4) Air fare war


Valuation

Considering the recent traffic data of Cathay, we upgrade our EPS forecast to HK$3.2 and HK$3.1 in 2010 and 2011.

We maintain our 12-month target price of HK$ 23.2, equating to 7.5x 2011P/E or 1.6x 2011P/B. BUY for 18.7% upside.

not vested. I'm surprized ...

DJ MARKET TALK: Cathay Pacific Likely Loss-Making In 1Q -Nomura

1257 [Dow Jones] Nomura says that while it has not been able to get any confirmation from Cathay Pacific (0293.HK), it notes that Air China's (0753.HK) 1Q12 results imply that CX may have incurred 1Q12 losses;

This would have likely been worse than market expectations given that market consensus is looking for the company to make a FY12 net profit of HK$4.16 billion (Nomura is looking at HK$4.54 billion).

Still, the house says that even if CX was slightly loss-making in 1Q12, "we would still believe that the group can still turn in profits for the full-year of 2012 as 1H has traditionally been the weaker half."

Nomura says Cathay Pacific is currently trading on an estimated forward P/B of 0.85X compared to its historical trough P/B of 0.7X and its mid-cycle P/B of 1.6X; it keeps the stock at Buy with HK$23.20 target.

Cathay flies 2.3% higher to HK$13.46 at midday. Both firms cross-hold each others' stakes.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

If it can happen to Cathay..I am sure it will hit SQ as well.

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Cathay Pacific Says Economy Fares Down as Much as 10% This Year

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-1 ... -year.html

not vested

Cathay flies high over holidays

Cathay Pacific Airways (0293) yesterday said passenger volumes last year rose 5.5 percent and capacity grew by 5.9 percent from 2013.

Cathay and subsidiary Dragonair saw passenger numbers jump 6.5 percent in December from a year back, to 2.77 million.

For all of 2014, the two airlines carried 31.57 million passengers, up 5.5 percent, as passenger load factor rose 1.1 percentage points to 83.5 percent, thanks to a strong Christmas and New Year peak season.

Cathay general manager revenue management Patricia Hwang Wai-tung said a number of uplift records over the holiday period were broken.

She said demand from Hong Kong to vacation destinations in North Asia and Southeast Asia was consistently strong.

"However, we saw a falloff in demand in the premium cabins, which put downward pressure on yield," Hwang said.

In December, the two airlines carried 156,603 tonnes of cargo, up 12.2 percent. Load factor rose 4.9 percentage points to 68.2 percent, while capacity grew 6.6 percent.

For 2014, tonnage rose 12 percent and capacity 10.4 percent.

Source: The Standard HK

not vested

CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK): No signs of recovery for yield

CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK) +0.240 (+1.415%) Short selling $16.23M; Ratio 26.578% 's corporate communications manager said that the Chinese New Year has long been the peak season for the industry and there will be additional flights for individual routes, including South Korea and Japan in order to cope with the demand.

The company released the statistics for passenger load and freight volume of 2014 yesterday (20 January). It is expected that there will be no sign for improvement for yield this year, despite better freight volume and constant passenger load.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

Fuel hedging holds Cathay

Cathay Pacific Airways (0293) said net profit rose 20 percent last year to HK$3.15 billion from 2013, falling short of expectations as losses from fuel hedging offset gains in passenger numbers.

Asia's largest international airline by passengers recorded a HK$911 million loss from hedging due to sharp reduction in fuel prices in the fourth quarter.

Including the hedging, net fuel cost rose 5.68 percent to HK$40.30 billion.

But chairman John Slosar believes the drop in fuel price can benefit the group.

"We've always said we would prefer to see some fuel hedging losses alongside sustained and larger savings from our fuel costs," said Slosar.

Cathay has extended fuel hedging contracts to 2018. The group's policy is to reduce exposure to fuel price risk by hedging a percentage of its expected fuel consumption. The airline recognized HK$12.47 billion of unrealized hedging losses in the cash flow hedge reserve in 2014.

Revenue rose 5.5 percent to HK$105.99 billion. A second interim dividend of 26 HK cents per share was proposed, taking the year total to 36 HK cents, up from 22 HK cents in 2013.

Passenger numbers rose 5.5 percent to 31.57 million as more flights were added to the US and more traveled from Northeast Asia. But passenger yields, or money earned from carrying travelers per kilometer, fell 1.8 percent to 67.3 HK cents.

Chief executive Ivan Chu Kwok-leung said competition was fierce - plus Cathay increased supply, pressuring yields.

Slosar said: "It was encouraging to see an overall improvement in our business in 2014."

Shares of Cathay fell 0.59 percent to HK$16.94 yesterday.

Source: The Standard HK

not vested

<Result Ann>CATHAY PAC AIR Annual Net Profit Up 90.5% to $6B; 2nd Interim Div. $0.27

CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK) announced that for the last year as of the end of December, the net profit rose 90.48% yearly to $6 billion.

EPS equaled 152.5 cents; a second interim dividend of $0.27 was declared. In 2015, a total dividend of $0.53 was declared, up 47.2%.

Meanwhile, the turnover fell 3.44% yearly to HK$102.34 billion. Its passenger revenue in 2015 was $73.047 billion, a decrease of 3.5% compared to 2014. The cargo revenue was $23.122 billion, down 9% yearly.

During the period, the passenger load factor was 85.7%, up 2.4 percentage points yearly. Cargo and mail load factor was 64.2%, down 0.1 percentage point yearly.

Fuel hedging losses amounted to $8.474 billion, surging by 8.3 times year. Total fuel costs (before the effect of fuel hedging) amounted to $24.494 billion, down 37.8% yearly. After taking hedging losses into account, fuel costs declined 18.2%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

Cathay Drops After CEO Says Performance ‘Below Expectations’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... s-ceo-says