Sea Ltd SE (former Garena)

[winston]

not vested

Could Sea Limited Stock Become the Next Amazon?

by Will Healy

The seven Southeast Asian countries that are the core of Shopee's market have a combined population of more than 600 million. While not as large as China at 1.4 billion, that is almost twice the population of the U.S.

It also operates in Brazil and maintains a limited operation in three other Latin American countries.

Garena's revenue dropped 43% yearly in the first nine months of 2023.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/could-se ... 00348.html

[winston]

not vested

Improved GMV growth momentum in 4Q23F

We believe Shopee’s reinvestment drive bore fruit in 4Q23F with improved GMV growth momentum (+28% yoy) while its rate of cash burn eased.

We see early signs of e-commerce competition in ASEAN normalizing but will continue to follow developments post the TikTok Shop-Tokopedia merger.

Reiterate Hold in view of Shopee’s FY24F earnings risks given the uncertainties in the Indonesia e-commerce space.

TP: US$46

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... be5e5f1d76

[winston]

not vested

1 Growth Stock Down 88% to Buy Right Now

by William Duberstein

Garena, spearheaded by hit game Free Fire, saw its revenue decline 33.7% year over year last quarter after flattening out in 2022.

Achieved its transition to profitability in large part by significantly reducing its sales and marketing spending, which has resulted in a slowdown in its e-commerce segment.

Active buyers grew 11% quarter over quarter in Q3, and gross orders grew 24% quarter over quarter.

Digital financial services division, which saw 37% growth.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-growth ... 00604.html

[winston]

not vested

Sea Shares Jump After Profit Beat Signals E-Commerce Resilience

Sales rose 4.8% to $3.6 billion, versus the average estimate of $3.5 billion, with e-commerce revenue gaining 23%.

Gaming division’s fourth-quarter revenue fell 46.2% to $510.8 million.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sea-earn ... 07474.html

[winston]

not vested

Sea books profit of US$162.7 million, expects e-commerce breakeven by second half of 2024

by Benjamin Cher

first-ever profitable year with earnings of US$162.7 million for 2023, reversing from a loss of US$1.7 billion in 2022. But this missed analysts’ estimates of US$301.7 million.

Revenue for the period rose 4.9 per cent to US$13.1 billion from US$12.4 billion a year prior, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of US$12.9 billion.

E-commerce revenue for 2023 rose 23.5 per cent to US$9 billion from US$7.3 billion in 2022. The business unit booked a loss of US$550.5 million for the year.

Sea’s cash position was US$8.5 billion as at Dec 31 last year.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/startu ... lf-of-2024

[winston]

not vested

SEA (SE US)
4Q23: Misses Expectations But Mid-term Prospects Intact

SEA’s 2023 net profit of US$163m was below our expectations, making up 81% of our
full-year estimate.

The 4Q23 net loss of US$91.4m was largely due to higher sales and marketing expenses (+132% yoy) for the e-commerce segment, offset by its revenue growth.

We expect all segments to record growth in 2024, particularly the e-commerce segment as competition stabilises.

Maintain BUY with a lower target price of US$63.35.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... cd432c6455

[winston]

not vested

Sea shares climb after spending to fight TikTok

Ecommerce gross merchandise volume (GMV), or the value of goods sold, climbed a better-than-expected 29%. Sea now predicts GMV will increase in the “high teens” this year,

In December, TikTok restarted its hit shopping app in Indonesia after signing a pact with GoTo Group’s eCommerce unit Tokopedia, creating a partnership that threatens Shopee’s dominance.

Stepping up efforts to build out its live-streaming arm, an offensive move that could erode margins and trigger a price war with TikTok and Alibaba.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ght-tiktok

[winston]

vested

E-commerce prospects improving

4Q23 was a beat on both revenue and EBITDA. Shopee’s reinvestment drive bore fruit with improved GMV momentum, while rate of cash burn eased.

SE guided for high-teens GMV growth for Shopee in FY24F and adj. EBITDA to swing positive in 2H24F, as it adopts a more nimble approach in FY24F.

Upgrade to Add from Hold on normalising competitive landscape for the ASEAN e-commerce industry, with a higher TP of US$74.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... A4CCF97A91

[winston]

not vested

Sea Ltd. - More E-Commerce Growth Ahead

Both 4Q23 revenue and PATMI were in line with expectations.

FY23 revenue was at 98% of our FY23e forecasts, while PATMI was ~US$0.7bn below.

Sea has hit its first profitable year since its IPO in 2017.

Shopee is gaining market share against its competitors, with both GMV and gross orders growing strong (29%/46% YoY), driven by increased investments in the business since 3Q23.

Garena is guided to increase by double digits after two years of decline.

We raised our FY24 revenue growth rate/PATMI by 2%/ driven by higher e-commerce and gaming growth.

We expect FY24 to be profitable given profitability contribution from Garena and Shopee.

We roll over an additional year of valuations and downgraded our recommendation from Buy to Accumulate due to a recent share price change.

Our DCF target price is raised to US$70 (prev. US$61), with an unchanged WACC/growth rate of 7.6%/3%.

Source: Phillips

https://www.poems.com.sg/stock-research/SE/

[winston]

not vested

A Stable Duopoly in Indonesia focusing on profits?

Shopee & Tokopedia might prefer a stable duopoly in Indonesia as evident from rising take-rates in 1Q24; there is not much share to gain from other players anyway

Shopee & Tokopedia are also leaders in fast-growing live-commerce much ahead of others

Shopee’s rising in-house logistics (50%+ of total deliveries) and lower logistics subsidies also support profitability.

Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of US$75

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=18566