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DIS Stock: Disney+ Is on Fire
Linear Networks Business Holding Up
Parks Positioned for a Rebound
Subscribers for the company's streaming service, which has received widespread praise for hit shows like "the Mandalorian", increased 1.8% QoQ - equivalent to 2.1MM new customers - to 118.1MM, missing the average Street estimate for the subscriber base to increase to 119.6MM.
Meanwhile, the company reported earnings of 37 cents a share excluding some one-time items, missing estimates of 49 cents.
Looks to reach as many as 260 million customers by 2024.
Growth will be driven first by an increase in the number of countries where Disney+ is offered, and then by what Chapek called a surge of spending on new TV shows and movies.
Losses in the direct-to-consumer business, which includes Disney+, widened to US$630 million. Wall Street projections were for a loss of US$438.8 million.
In Disney’s traditional TV business, profit fell 11% to US$1.64 billion, due to higher programming and marketing costs for the ABC broadcast network, along with lower affiliate fees from cable networks such as ESPN.
Profit at the company’s theme-park business, the largest in the world, came to US$640 million, compared with a year-earlier loss, largely driven by the consumer products business.
While it’s not exactly a bullish reaction to earnings — the stock is down on the day after all — the losses aren’t too bad and bulls are buying the dip.
That’s about as much as investors could ask for in a situation where a company misses on earnings and revenue expectations and as Disney came up short on subscriber estimates.
Resistance between $187.50 and $190.
On the downside, a drop below $160.50 puts today’s low in play along with $157.46.
Free cash flow had printed up 62% at $1.522B (almost three times consensus).
Daniel Salmon at BMO Capital, who already had the equivalent of a "hold" on Disney, cut his PT to $180 from $195.
John Hodulik of UBS, who maintained a "buy" rating, reduced his PT from $220 to $205.
Both Benjamin Swinburne of Morgan Stanley and Michael Morris of Guggenheim left "buy" ratings in place as well as PTs of $210 and $205, respectively.
Disney+ is generating just 7% of Disney's total revenue, and it's still three years away from profitability.
The 26% surge in revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter was enough to lift all of fiscal 2021 into positive territory.
Disney+ accounts for less than 8% of the total current revenue.
Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu are all growing at 20% or better over the past year.
All of Walt Disney's (DIS) theme parks are now open.
Some Disney cruises have resumed.
And Disney+ continues to offer hit shows and new movies.
Barclays downgraded its rating to equal weight from overweight amid concerns about slowing growth of its Disney+ streaming service. It also lowered its price target to 175 from 210.
Disney is not a buy right now. But it's worth watching to see how the media giant fares now that its theme parks, cruises and movie theaters are back in action.
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