not vested
Sea Limited (SE US) - Macro uncertainties leading to wider Shopee guidance range
Sea Limited (Sea) delivered a good set of 1QFY22 results (ended 31st March 2022).
Total adjusted EBITDA loss came in at USD510m, which we believe was narrower than expected – we attribute this to lower-than-expected losses in e-commerce.
Sea has revised its 2022 e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance to be between USD8.5b-USD9.1b (previously USD8.9b-USD9.1b).
While management believes that its previous guidance is still achievable, this new set of guidance reflects its expectations around the upcoming macro uncertainties (e.g. inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain challenges).
Management noted that Shopee is on track to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA after allocation of HQ cost by the end of 2023 in ASEAN + Taiwan.
While management has seen early signs of stabilisation in Free Fire’s monthly user trends towards the end of 1QFY22, the longer-term impact of reopening remains to be seen.
Management also believes that SeaMoney remains on track to achieve positive cash flow while at the same time continuing to scale rapidly and efficiently.
All considered, the e-commerce outlook does appear to be a tad cloudier in light of macro uncertainties, while the market remains concerned over the lack of clarity into Garena’s pipeline.
Furthermore, a backdrop of rising yields is likely to continue to pose challenges to high growth stocks with minimal/no earnings.
Following slight adjustments while still retaining our ESG discount of 5% (to account for governance risk), our FV eases from USD93 to USD88. HOLD.
Source: OCBC