vested
Gloating Twitter short-seller trolls Elon Musk as takeover wobble sees all share gains wiped out
BY CHRISTIAAN HETZNER
Source: Fortune
https://fortune.com/2022/05/13/twitter- ... ldatasheet
He said his team would test "a random sample of 100 followers" on Twitter to identify the bots. His response to a question prompted Twitter's accusation.
When a user asked Musk to "elaborate on process of filtering bot accounts", he replied, "I picked 100 as the sample size number, because that is what Twitter uses to calculate <5% fake/spam/duplicate."
The Street will view this deal as:-
1) Likely falling apart
2) Musk negotiating for a lower deal price or
3) Musk simply walking away from the deal with a $1 billion breakup fee
The Tesla CEO added that there is "some chance" the number of fake and bot accounts "might be over 90% of daily active users", although Twitter told the SEC last month that the total was under 5% of its 229 million month active users.
He also suggested users were being "manipulated" by Twitter's algorithm.
Agrawal tweeted earlier on Monday that internal estimates of spam accounts on the social media platform for the last four quarters were "well under 5%," responding to days of criticism by Musk.
"So how do advertisers know what they're getting for their money? This is fundamental to the financial health of Twitter," Musk wrote.
Musk told the conference in Miami that he suspects bots - or automated accounts - make up about 20% to 25% of users.
Musk said on Sunday "there is some chance it might be over 90% of daily active users."
Independent researchers have estimated that anywhere from 9% to 15% of the millions of Twitter profiles are bots.
"In the absence of a bid, we would not be surprised to see the stock find a floor at $22.50," said Jefferies analyst Brent Thill said Tuesday in a new note to clients. Such a price would be about 40% lower than Twitter's current trading level.
A fair value for Twitter in light of the rout in tech stocks in recent months would be $42 a share.
Wedbush: It's likely a 60%+ chance from our view Musk ultimately walks from the deal and pays the breakup fee.
“There is no procedural step in the closing of a company that is called ‘deal on hold,’ there is ‘no deal on hold’ built into the agreement”.
“Getting cold feet is no sufficient basis to withdraw….so presumably at this point if he really wanted out he would have said so, and they would demand the breakup fee”.
Musk waived his right to perform due diligence on Twitter before signing the deal, as outlined in Twitter’s SEC filing detailing the run-up to the acquisition.
“Mr. Musk also disclosed that his acquisition proposal was no longer subject to the completion of financing and business due diligence”.
Musk is also not learning about bots on Twitter for the first time. Musk talked about solving the bot issue as one reason he was buying Twitter in the news release announcing the deal.
Since his recent actions on Twitter could potentially be considered as disparaging the company, which he agreed not to do when he signed the merger agreement, he could eventually be subject to further legal action by Twitter.
The board could sue him for “specific performance,” which would force him to go through with the acquisition as specified in the contract.
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