Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby iam802 » Thu Jan 06, 2011 11:51 pm

Image

Netflix price is under pressure.

It has fail to bounce up above 180 and is now sitting just above the kumo support.

On the leading kumo, we can see that it has twisted suggesting a change in trend is on the way; with a bias towards the down side.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby kennynah » Fri Jan 07, 2011 1:02 am

i think it is a great opportunity to buy on this dip... but set a cut loss somewhere...
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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby iam802 » Tue Jan 11, 2011 8:42 pm

Image

Netflix (NFLX) has a strong move yesterday; opening at $179.82 and closing at $187.88 with very little retracement off the opening high.

A break above the kumo will signal that it is attempting to break its $200s again.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby iam802 » Sat Feb 12, 2011 11:06 pm

If he doesn't cover, I think it will be a very big hole.

My own thoughts: Don't short a momentum stock. It is the same as trying to stop an incoming train by standing in front of it.
--

Whitney Tilson: Why We Covered Our Netflix Short


--

Long article. Suggestion to read it at source site.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/252316- ... y_dispatch

When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?

-- John Maynard Keynes




n mid-December, we published a lengthy article on why Netflix was our largest bearish bet at the time. With the stock up nearly 25% since then, one might assume that we’d think it’s an even better short today, but in fact we have closed out our position because we are no longer confident that our investment thesis is correct. There are three primary reasons for this:

1) The company reported a very strong quarter that weakened key pillars of our investment thesis, especially as it relates to margins;

2) We conducted a survey, completed by more than 500 Netflix subscribers, that showed significantly higher satisfaction with and usage of Netflix’s streaming service than we anticipated (the results of our survey are posted here); and

3) Our article generated a great deal of feedback, including an open letter from Netflix’s CEO, Reed Hastings, some of which caused us to question a number of our assumptions.

In summary, while we acknowledged in our December article that Netflix “offers a useful, attractively-priced service to customers, is growing like wildfire, is very well managed, and has a strong balance sheet,” we now believe that it is an even better business than we gave it credit for. The company has enormous momentum and substantial optionality (for example, international growth), and management is executing superbly. In particular, we tip our hat to Reed Hastings, whom we had the pleasure of meeting last weekend. In addition to his success building the business and navigating the transition from DVD-by-mail to streaming media, he’s also one of the most down-to-earth, honest and straightforward CEOs we’ve ever encountered.

...
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby iam802 » Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:42 pm

Have been thinking about Netflix.

What are the alternatives to Netflix; apart from AAPL, AMZN?

From a consumer's point of view:

1. Netflix pricing is easy to understand ; US$7.99/mth (<< way easier than our local Starhub bundle)

2. No need for set-top box to watch movies; easily available on all PC and/or devices.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby Muhajir » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:41 pm

Dear Iam802,

Found this bit of positive news you might find interesting about netlix.

Netflix claims that its services are complementary to cable subscriptions, rather than competitive. But research is beginning to suggest otherwise.

A new report from The Diffusion Group showed that 32 percent of Netflix users plan to cut at least some part of their cable subscription, twice the percentage that indicated they'd do so just one year ago.

Many of these so-called "cord cutters" are doing so for reasons other than cost. Sixty-one percent of these users cited online video as the reason for the downgrade, with 66 percent of those users citing Netflix specifically. Only twenty-four percent said cost was the main reason for downgrading their service.

Perhaps cable providers should be a little more worried about Netflix, which now has 22.8 million subscribers.

Though executives from Time Warner, Viacom, Comcast, Cox, and News Corp. shrugged off the threat of Netflix at a discussion on The Cable Show on Tuesday, these results seem to show that the two businesses may not be as different as cable companies--and Netflix itself--keeps insisting.

Netflix, though it primarily provides past seasons of television shows and out-of-theater movies, recently entered into a deal to offer David Fincher's new series House of Cards and outbid HBO and Showtime to secure exclusivity rights.

Still, execs don't seem too panicked.

"They got involved in one show but that's really not their fundamental business," said Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman, according to PCMag. "It's not that easy to get into the content business."

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings has said in the past that he would prefer not to pursue these sorts of deals, but rather, to obtain rights to the content that other companies provide. HBO and Showtime have remained steadfast Netflix holdouts, preferring to offer their content exclusively, as with HBO GO.

"If we can't spend the money with HBO and Showtime, we've got to do things like [pursue original content]," Hastings said recently. "Our preference is to do that with HBO and Showtime. The check's not big enough yet."

Still, it seems that Netflix is, whether anyone likes it or not, becoming a legitimate competitor to the cable companies. Meanwhile, cable companies vow that they are trying to give customers the kind of access Netflix allows.

"Let's never give our customer a reason to cord cut," said Comcast Cable president Neil Smit, as quoted by PCMag. "Whether it's an iPad or TV screen or mobile, let's let them view it the way they want to view it. ... We're bringing more video functionality to the TV screen."

But Netflix is already offered on over 250 devices and will soon add a Netflix button to remote controls that lets users go directly to content on their televisions. The cable companies may have to move a little faster.

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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby iam802 » Thu Sep 15, 2011 10:55 pm

NFLX on a suicide fall today
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby profittaker » Fri Sep 16, 2011 7:05 am

Just when I thought it is dangerous to hold overnight short position. Haha
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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby winston » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:16 pm

Stats of the Week: 61%

Decline in the share price of movie rental business Netflix since mid-July.

The popular firm is dealing with one of the biggest pricing fiascos in corporate history.

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

Postby iam802 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 2:55 pm

Netflix warns of more cancellations, shares drop

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/ ... G320111024


Notes:
- Closing price - $118.84
- After hours - $85.75
- lots of people must have been caught long in this counter given the recent rally as they try to bottom fish.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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The Ichimoku Thread | Option Strategies Thread | Japanese Candlesticks Thread
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