Nvidia (NVDA) / Jensen Huang 02 (Jul 23 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

Fruit Lady, here I come! Huang Renxun went straight to Tonghua Night Market to buy fruit

Fruit Lady我來了! 黃仁勳直奔通化夜市買水果｜TVBS新聞 ‪@TVBSNEWS02‬

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y4mtMJuTxU

[winston]

vested

NVDA Market Outlook

Strengths:

Market Leadership: Dominance in AI hardware and software with a robust ecosystem (CUDA).
Innovation: Continuous R&D investment and leadership in cutting-edge GPU technologies.

Revenue Diversification: Growth across gaming, data centers, automotive, and edge computing.

Financial Position: Strong margins and free cash flow support innovation and shareholder returns.

Weaknesses:

Valuation Sensitivity: High P/E and P/S ratios make NVIDIA vulnerable to market corrections.

Geopolitical Exposure: Dependence on China as a key market introduces regulatory risks.

Competition: Rivals like AMD, Intel, and custom chipmakers (Google, Amazon) are narrowing the technology gap.

Segment Dependence: Heavy reliance on AI and data centers for growth.

Catalysts to Growth:
AI Proliferation: Growing demand for AI workloads across industries.
Cloud Computing Expansion: Increasing adoption of GPU-accelerated data centers.
Automotive and Edge Computing: Growth in autonomous vehicles and IoT markets.
Product Innovations: Launch of advanced GPUs (H100, Blackwell) and AI platforms.

Risks to Growth:

Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic headwinds could limit enterprise IT budgets.

Supply Chain Constraints: Potential disruptions in semiconductor production.

Geopolitical Risks: U.S.-China trade tensions and export restrictions.

Competitive Pressure: Intensified rivalry from AMD, Intel, and cloud providers developing custom chips.

Valuation:

Current Valuation:

High P/E and P/S ratios compared to industry peers, reflecting a premium growth status.
Projected Valuation:

Continued revenue and earnings growth may justify high valuation, but multiple compression is likely as markets mature.

Comparison to Competitors:

NVIDIA’s valuation remains higher than AMD and Intel, underpinned by its leadership in AI and superior margins.

Conclusion:
NVIDIA is a compelling growth investment over the next 1-3 years, driven by its leadership in AI, data centers, and innovative technologies. Despite risks such as high valuation, geopolitical tensions, and competition, its robust ecosystem, diversified product portfolio, and strategic positioning in high-growth markets make it a strong candidate for long-term investors.

Strategic entry points and monitoring of market dynamics will be critical to maximizing returns

Source: Simply Wall Street

https://simplywall.st/community/narrati ... =Variant+1

[winston]

<Research>M Stanley Keeps NVIDIA (NVDA.US) as Top Pick; DeepSeek Selloff Presents Buying Opportunity

Morgan Stanley has released a report reiterating NVIDIA (NVDA.US) as its top pick in light of the company's ongoing business improvements, increasing visibility of Blackwell supply, and customers' clear desire to spend, even though market sentiment regarding potential long-term risks has deteriorated.

In addition, the report cited recent surveys as showing NVIDIA's strong performance in Hopper and various Blackwell-related businesses, despite certain challenges posed by DeepSeek in terms of export controls and long-term investments.

Morgan Stanley gave NVIDIA an Overweight rating with a target price of US$152 given a buying opportunity presented after the selloff triggered by DeepSeek.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

3 reasons why Nvidia is underperforming the S&P 500 going into its earnings

by Brian Sozzi

1) DeepSeek lowering AI demand in aggregate,
2) DeepSeek shifting AI compute cycles away from Nvidia GPUs and to ASICs [custom chips], and
3) Blackwell chip delays.

Nvidia remains the platform of choice for hyperscalers’ customers.

"The robustness of its software ecosystem and breadth of its development community put it 5-10 years ahead of anything else in the market. AMD and Amazon AWS ecosystems are a distant #2 and #3."

"The [earnings] call could mark the trough in investor sentiment as:
1) we expect Nvidia to reassure on Blackwell execution,
2) Signal confidence around fiscal year 2026/calendar year 2025 with 60%+ year over year growth in data center sales (still leaves headroom vs. Taiwan Semiconductor's call for AI to grow 100%+ year over year in calendar year 2025 end), and
3) create excitement ahead of flagship GTC Conf. (Mar 17) where focus shifts to solid pipeline (GB300, Rubin), and physical AI (robotics)," Arya wro

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reason ... 9271635897

[winston]

vested

Prediction: Nvidia Stock Is Going to Surge After Feb. 26

by Anthony Di Pizio

Nvidia stock is trading down 11% from its record high set in early January 2025 following a sharp sell-off over the past month.

Nvidia's top customers aren't slowing down

Nvidia's H100 graphics processor (GPU) captured an incredible 98% market share.

It remains a top seller but it was superseded by the H200, and then an entirely new generation of GPUs based on Nvidia's Blackwell architecture.

The Blackwell-based GB200 NVL72 system can perform AI inference at 30 times the pace of the equivalent H100 system.

If all of Nvidia's top customers are significantly increasing their investments in chips and data centers, it's hard to envision a scenario where the company's financial results disappoint.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/predicti ... 00268.html

[behappyalways]

Redditor Reports "Melting Smell" Of Nvidia's RTX 5090 GPU While Playing Battlefield V
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/re ... tlefield-v

[behappyalways]

How $NVDA makes money
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1891492160031072600

[winston]

not vested

Nvidia reported fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday that beat Wall Street expectations.

The company also provided strong guidance for the current quarter.

Revenue came in at US$39.33 billion vs. US$38.05 billion estimated and earnings per share was US$0.89 adjusted vs. US$0.84 estimated.

Nvidia said it expected about US$43 billion in first-quarter revenue, plus or minus 2%, versus US$41.78 billion expected.

The first-quarter forecast implies year-to-year growth of about 65% from a year earlier, a slowdown from 262% annual growth in the same period a year prior.

Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said the company expects “a significant ramp” of sales of Blackwell, its next-generation AI chip, in the first quarter.

Nvidia said it had US$11 billion in Blackwell revenue during the fourth quarter. “Blackwell sales were led by large cloud service providers which represented approximately 50% of our Data Center revenue,” Kress said in a statement.

Net income during the quarter rose to US$22.09 billion, or 89 cents per diluted share, versus US$12.29 billion, or 49 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Nvidia reported a 73% gross margin in the quarter, which was down three points on an annual basis.

The company said the decline in gross margin was due to newer data center products that were more complicated and expensive.

Source: Phillips

[behappyalways]

DeepSeek breaks through the imagination of China's technology industry.
Huawei's amazing yield rate breakthrough becomes Huida's biggest threat? !
DeepSeek突破中國科技業想像 華為良率驚人突破成輝達最大威脅？！【#風向龍鳳配】｜CC字幕
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=25pB1oJZf ... p=2AEKkAIB


How $NVDA makes money
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1895091291555307915

[winston]

vested

Nvidia Corporation – Short term headwinds, but Blackwell starts to ramp

FY25 revenue was within expectations, while PATMI beat our expectations.

Revenue/PATMI was 100%/106% of our FY25e forecast. Blackwell shipments started in 4Q25, driving revenue growth by +78% YoY and not dragging down gross margins as much as we expected.

Nvidia’s gaming segment (9% of FY25 revenue) dropped 11% YoY due to supply constraints. However, demand for RTX 50 series desktop and laptop GPUs remains strong, and we expect gaming revenue to recover by 1Q26e.

We maintain ACCUMULATE with a lower target price of US$130 (prev. US$160). We adjusted our FY26e revenue/PATMI by 5%/-3% to reflect expected Blackwell ramp until 3Q26e, which is expected to drive revenue growth but lower margins.

We believe record CAPEX figures from hyperscalers will continue to drive growth in the data center segment. Given short-term uncertainties from tariff/retaliation announcements, we raised our WACC to 7.9% (prev. 6.8%).

Source: Phillips

https://www.stocksbnb.com/reports/nvidi ... s-to-ramp/