Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:43 am

OUR "BELL COW" OF MINING HAS FAILED ITS TEST by Brian Hunt

Freeport has failed.

Two weeks ago, we featured a chart of Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), one of the "bell cows" of the natural resource business. When fund managers want exposure to mining and metals, FCX is a "go to" stock.

FCX was a huge winner from mid-2005 to mid-2008. Copper and gold – its two main products – were soaring. Plus, everyone wanted to own mining stocks. Nowadays, the opposite is true. By early November, FCX had declined 81% from its 2008 high to its October low around $25 a share. We called this low a "make or break" level for mining stocks. If FCX remained above it, great news for mining. If FCX broke it, bad news for mining.

Now here's the bad news: FCX breezed through the "make or break" level to close at $21.68 on Tuesday. Folks still can't stand the thought of owning a mining stock. Until Freeport starts "behaving" and climbs above $25 per share, expect more misery for miners.
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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:27 am

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. cut projected copper production and sales for the next two years as it plans to halve estimated 2009 capital spending and suspend its dividend amid the plunging prices for copper and molybdenum.

The company said the pricing slump and economic and credit-market woes will limit its ability to invest in growth projects and result in Freeport changing near-term plans.

Copper futures have tumbled some 60% since hitting record highs in May
as demand has fallen amid the slowed global economy. Miners of numerous metals have announced plans to curb production in response to price declines.

– Wall Street Journal
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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:24 pm

ANOTHER REASON TO BUY COAL STOCKS by Brian Hunt

This week's chart is a cherry on top of Jeff's coal recommendation.

It's the past year's trading in the world's largest public copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan.

Why the cherry? Well, commodity stocks tend to trade in tandem. If copper stocks are soaring, chances are oil stocks, gold stocks, and coal stocks are soaring as well. And Freeport is one of the big "bell cows" of the commodity complex.

As you can see, Freeport is well into a new uptrend. We can't know how long it will last, but we can say, "The bell cow is heading up the hill for a bite to eat... The other cows will soon follow."

– Brian Hunt
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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 28, 2009 11:29 pm

Stats of the week: 68%

Gain in Freeport-McMoRan so far in 2009. Freeport is the world's largest publicly traded copper producer. The stock is up 152% from its December bottom.
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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Sat Nov 21, 2009 9:20 pm

THIS IS MAJOR JUICE by Brian Hunt

This week's chart is picture of what traders like to call "juice."

You can use all kinds of different financial vehicles to take a position on any given idea in the market. Some vehicles are conservative and slow moving, for folks who avoid risk and volatility. Some are faster moving, for folks who know how to manage risk and want to shoot for quicker profits. These latter vehicles give you leverage... or "juice."

Juice in the copper market can be found in Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the world's largest publicly traded copper producer. Regular DailyWealth readers know "Dr. Copper" is enjoying a big rally right now. The red metal is up 94% in the past 12 months.

Expensive copper means higher profit margins for FCX. Shares have more than quadrupled in price during the same time... and sports one of the biggest uptrends in the market right now. Major juice!

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Fri Apr 23, 2010 10:57 pm

THIS MINING SECTOR "BELL COW" IS IN DANGER

Few stocks can say they had a better 2009 than Freeport-McMoRan (FCX).

FCX is one of the big "bell cows" of the mining sector. It is the largest U.S.-based miner… and one of the world's largest producers of copper. It's a stock we track closely at DailyWealth.

After getting clobbered in late 2008, Freeport shares enjoyed a monster 300% rally last year. Copper prices were surging, and traders flocked into mining stocks. But as you can see from today's chart, that rally has fizzled. Shares are unchanged in the past six months… and have "bumped their head" on the $85 level three times. Even a terrific quarterly report this week was greeted with enormous selling pressure that sent shares down 3%.

There's a good case to be made that we should be worried about FCX and the copper price right now. Several mining insiders believe there is an enormous amount of copper being stockpiled and hoarded around the world.

Long term, the Fed's funny-money programis going to devalue the dollar… which boosts the nominal price of commodities like copper. But in the short term, like one year, anything can happen. We say keep an eye on both the $85 level… and the short-term low at $66 per share. FCX tends to boom and bust, so a break of $66 puts it in bust mode… and validates the bear case for copper.


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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Tue Jun 29, 2010 8:12 pm

HUGE MINING TREND IS REVERSING

The recent strength in gold mining shares is reversing a huge trend that's been in place since early 2009: "base-metal miners up, gold miners not so much."

For much of the past year, the mining firms that focus on copper, zinc, and nickel have far outperformed the mining firms focused on gold. Major copper miner Freeport-McMoRan, for instance, has gained as much as 180% since the March 2009 panic. Major gold miners Barrick and Newmont have gained less than 50% in the same time period. You can see the trend in today's chart, which tracks the ratio of Freeport shares vs. Newmont shares.

The rising trendline from early 2009 to early 2010 shows how the market favored Freeport over Newmont. This outperformance came from the "reflation trade"... Investors bet the government's giant E-Z-Credit program would stoke demand for all kinds of building materials, like copper.

Now have a look at the right side of the chart. You'll see folks are souring on the reflation trade... and they're starting to favor Newmont over Freeport. If you're of the mind that the global recovery is fake... and that debt problems will continue to send gold prices higher... you'll want to bet on this new "gold up, copper down" trend continuing.

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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Sat Jul 03, 2010 3:38 pm

THIS IS A MASSIVE BREAKDOWN WORTH WATCHING

The breakdown we've been expecting from Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is here.

Longtime DailyWealth readers know mining giant Freeport-McMoRan is one of our "must watch" stocks. FCX is the world's largest publicly traded copper company. Since the price of its chief product rises and falls with the pace of global economic activity, FCX shares are a great "instant read" on what's happening in the economy. It's also a stock we've been warning you about for months.

FCX enjoyed a huge 2009 as investors flocked to assets that benefited from the government's E-Z-Credit goosing of the economy. Shares skyrocketed more than 240% off their lows. But since peaking early this year, the stock has been locked in a bearish series of "lower highs and lower lows." And just yesterday, FCX registered a downside breakout to reach its lowest low in nine months.

This horrid price action from a leading copper producer is nothing but bearish for the global economy. And for classic trend-following traders, it's a clear downtrend to bet on.

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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Fri Mar 11, 2011 8:57 pm

IF CHINA SLOWS DOWN, THIS STOCK GETS KILLED

Another stock vulnerable to Jim Chanos' "China slowdown" thesis is dropping this week… mining bellwether Freeport McMoRan (FCX).

Yesterday, we noted the downside breakout in Brazilian iron ore giant Vale. It's a stock legendary short seller Jim Chanos has mentioned as highly vulnerable to a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which he believes is a huge risk right now.

If Chanos' "China slowdown" prediction comes true, raw material producers like Vale will suffer major declines… especially after soaring hundreds of percent in the past few years. This is just the nature of the "boom and bust" raw materials sector.

As you can see from today's chart, Freeport McMoRan is one such "boom and bust" stock. FCX is the world's largest publicly traded pure copper producer. It's one of the stocks big money managers turn to when they want exposure to mining.

After "busting" down below $10 per share in late 2008, FCX has boomed more than 500%. It doubled in price from July to December 2010. But note the budding downtrend forming on the upper right-hand side of the chart. This decline has come on huge selling volume… and is in danger of starting a fresh "bust."


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Re: Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 23, 2011 8:08 pm

not vested

FREEPORT MCMORAN STAGES A MAJOR DOWNSIDE BREAKOUT

"If the 'economic pessimists' are right, this is just the start of a major downtrend."

That's the bearish concern on copper we left you with in yesterday's Market Notes.

In today's column, we'll add that if the pessimists are right, it's also "lights out" for stocks like Freeport McMoRan (FCX).

Freeport McMoRan is the world's largest publicly traded copper miner. Its "trophy" asset is the massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

When large institutional traders want to trade copper, they often use shares of FCX to do the job.

As you can see from today's chart, FCX is suffering from sagging copper prices (along with worker strikes). After staging a huge rally from its 2009 lows, FCX spent most of this year in the $50-$60 range.

But just this month, it broke through this range to hit its lowest point in a year. At best, this downside breakout is reason to keep avoiding economically sensitive mining stocks (as we warned you to do in June).

At worst, it's the start of a big bust for the sector.

Source: www.dailywealth.com
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