Gen III Oil - GIII.V

[investar]

Rumors getting louder that the Super Major is Shell...

On 11 Feb, Shell is having a Corporate Strategy Day where they will outline their ESG plans.

[investar]

Another ESG fuel play, is absolutely rocketing today and last week.

GIII stays behind a bit, here at 91 cents it really still is a screaming buy.

When they announce the name of the Super Major and the financing of the first plant, this stock could triple in the same day.

Strong buy

[investar]

For GIII, this is the "buy the rumor" phase.

But I have a gut feeling there will be no " sell the news " phase here, but the opposite: when the news hits (over several PRs: name of SM, financing Alberta, govt grants, investment of the first ESG and cleantech centered funds and etfs, news of the different plants getting set up, potential global new sites etc.) this will continue the momentum set since last Oct.

=> solid uptrend towards 5 CAD and higher?

[investar]

Still no deal

=> accumulation mode still on!

if the SM is Shell, or Total then this stock will skyrocket to at least 2C$, but 5 is definitely possible too

[investar]

No deal yet,

only a new Board member, and an interesting amendment to some stock options.

I liked that, as they moved the exercise price of those options up to 80cents (price of today) instead of 40cents. Expiry date moves 2 years.

[investar]

Very good news yesterday, not yet the Super Major Definitive Deal Announcement, but: again big de-risking of the projects

Ideal window of opportunity to still add to the position pre-deal

[investar]

Some rumours of a potential buyout or interest from a SPAC...

Still interesting level here around 1 CAD.

One guy on a smallcap stockpicking forum came out with an "underestimating" target of 11.7$:


Koch Project Solutions, LLC ("KPS") will provide project management services,
to prepare for the turnkey delivery of Gen III's new (2nd) facility ("USGC") on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/GIII/new ... Engagement

The USGC refinery is one of THREE North American projects currently being advanced by Gen III.

North America generates over 7.2 billion gallons of used lubricating oils each year, of which only 5.0 billion gallons are collected.

Gen III's USGC facility will process over 78 million US gallons of used lube oils annually. By providing an additional 5,600 barrels per day of refining capacity for the North American market, Gen III's USGC facility will save more than 725,000 metric tons of CO2 emissions annually compared to traditional incineration and disposal methods.

Koch Project Solutions is not a small fish (https://kochprojectsolutions.com) and is part of Koch Industries (www.kochind.com).

Koch has a presence in 25 countries with 4,000 full-time employees in 56 technical and sales offices and 17 manufacturing facilities worldwide.

In its long history, Koch Group companies have been granted approximately 10,300 patents and have won more than 1,300 awards for safety, environmental performance, community responsibility, innovation and customer service since 2009.

Koch Industries does $115 billion in annual sales (source: https://www.forbes.com/companies/koch-industries).

Would Gen III bring a big player like Koch on board if the offtake and supply agreement with the energy giant wasn't ready to be signed? I think we are right on the cusp of big news with the super major.

The first plant is expected to generate 85 million CAD EBITDA per year. The second is twice as big, so I expect CAD 170 million EBITDA. I calculate with a 70 percent stake of Gen III in the first plant and with 80 percent in the second plant: 59.5 million CAD EBITDA (plant 1) and 136 million CAD EBITDA (plant 2) = 195.5 million CAD EBITDA per year from 2 plants.

Using a factor of 6, I arrive at CAD 1.173 billion acquisition valuation divided by about 100 million shares = CAD 11.73 per share compared to the current price of CAD 0.80.

This calculation is based on only 2(!) plants. Today, it was officially written for the first time that they are currently working on 3 plants. My target price is probably too low once again.

[investar]

Last weeks before the announcement of the Super Major deal???

I averaged up another time. Better now than after that deal

[investar]

Definitive Agreement with SM signed!!!

Another big de-risking event.
Many more to come.

Since first mentioned here, it is now a ten-bagger but it is one of those stocks where you can still keep averaging up!
Perfect storm of tailwinds and great events ahead.

Comment from a newsletter:

Gen III's current market capitalization is 180.6 CAD million.

Comparable companies would go over the table for 6 or 6.5 times EBITDA, said Mark Redcliffe of Gen III in an interview.

Using a factor of 6, I arrive at 1.173 billion CAD acquisition valuation divided by about 100 million shares = 11.73 CAD per share compared to the current price of 1.80 CAD.

Again, this is based on 2 plants only and does NOT include: the planned conversion of a 3rd plant, additional plants or license deals! In total, there should be at least 12 plants worldwide.*

The cool thing is that Gen III doesn't have to wait for the first plants to be ready. It's always business as usual: secure site, secure financing, award contract to general contractor to build the plant, take advantage of any subsidy opportunities, apply for carbon credits. And off to plan the next project.

The following (translated) paragraph is from Gen III's latest annual report:

"In parallel with the development of these plants, the Company is evaluating opportunities to develop ReGen plants at other sites in Canada, the U.S., Mexico, South America, Europe, Australia and other markets. The company is also exploring opportunities to license ReGen technology to gain access to non-core markets and accelerate ReGen's market penetration."

[investar]

Name Change to ReGen III + Super Major Deal: official! it's bp.


Unfortunately the cusip number of the shares changed, resulting in people not being able to buy the name on the day of the announcement. in my broker account, it has been fixed only today, 3 days later.

The shares should have had a great run towards 3$. Instead it is still possible to buy shares at 1.4!!!