Grab

[winston]

vested

Profitability vs Growth
1Q23 beat expectations; Reiterate BUY

1Q23 revenue of USD525m (+130% YoY) and net loss of USD250m (42% improvement) beat MIBG/street expectations at 26%/31%, respectively, mainly on a narrower adj.EBITDA loss (USD66m, 77% YoY improvement) and lower net interest expense.

But 1Q23 GMV of USD4.96b (+3% YoY) was 2% below our/street estimates mainly on Deliveries’ weakness.

We think the 14% drop in share price in the US post results on the weak GMV outlook overlooked the prospects for improving margins.

We cut our FY23-25 GMV forecast but narrow our net loss assumptions as margins expand.

Reiterate BUY with a higher SOTP-based TP of USD4.00 (+5%). We see a healthy competitive landscape accelerating Grab’s path to profitability.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/319084.pdf

[winston]

not vested

1Q23 Result - Improved results and guidance

1Q23 group adj EBITDA loss of (US$66m) was inline with our estimate but better than consensus’ (US$120m) loss.

GRAB guides for narrower FY23F group adj EBITDA loss on the back of reduction in incentives for Delivery and fintech segments.

Mobility segment is operating at its steady-state margins (EBITDA as a % of Gross Merchandise Value - GMV) while delivery segment is operating slightly below its steady-state margins. This implies too much reliance on GMV growth to grow GRAB’s EBITDA.

Maintain HOLD with TP under review. GRAB is not cheap in valuation with its 12-month/24-month forward Enterprise Value (EV) to Gross Profit (GP) of 6.9x/5.3x at a 53%/43% premium to Sea Ltd.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=14419

[winston]

Strong execution

Grab beat expectations across revenue, adj. EBITDA and net profit lines in 1Q23. However, GMV missed Bloomberg consensus expectations.

Given its strong performance in 1Q23, we deem Grab’s updated FY23F adj. LBITDA guidance (US$195m-US$235m) as conservative (again).

Deliveries GMV could reaccelerate in 2QF while its margins further expand.

Mobility segment GMV growth momentum remains healthy. Reiterate Add.

TP US$4.50

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 94063A66E2

[behappyalways]

S'pore man, 43, books Grab Premium for mum, 'hunts' down unmoving car & finds driver eating at coffeeshop
https://mothership.sg/2023/06/grab-premium-no-show/

[winston]

not vested

Grab's GMV-sized problem

by Shravanth

“Today, Grab only sells to 1 in 20 people [in Southeast Asia] every month. So this means there’s still plenty of room for us to grow,” Anthony Tan said in the firm’s first-quarter earnings call last month. If there ever was a rallying cry from the CEO of the US$13.4 billion company, this was it.

Despite more than doubling revenue in Q1 and narrowing adjusted EBITDA losses for the fifth consecutive quarter, the ride-hailing and food delivery giant has no intention of hitting the brakes.

But Grab’s stagnating gross merchandise value (GMV) has thrown a spanner in the works.

It will have to keep growing GMV in its mobility segment and reverse recent declines in its deliveries unit, to achieve its target of breaking even by Q4 this year. This is not an easy task, especially as the firm has reduced spending on incentives.

The super app needs to pull off the delicate balancing act of revitalizing its GMV to feed its bottom line while also minimizing expenses to maintain its profit margins.

Source: Tech in Asia

[winston]

not vested

Singapore’s Grab Plans Biggest Job-Cut Round Since Pandemic

Southeast Asia ride provider trying to reverse years of losses

Stock is down 70% since debut amid stiff price competition

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... #xj4y7vzkg

[behappyalways]

Grab cuts 1,000 jobs, maintains on track to meet earnings target
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/d ... ngs-target


https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/ ... 5087660034

[winston]

not vested

Grab is CGS-CIMB’s top pick among Singapore land transport players amid mass layoff

By Khairani Afifi Noordin

Grab has made good progress towards profitability, expecting the company to achieve adjusted ebitda breakeven by 3QFY2023 ended September — one quarter ahead of guidance even without the layoffs.

Its gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth should also reaccelerate for on-demand services as ride hailing demand continues to recover while deliveries start to improve q-o-q in 2QFY2023 ended June.

Suggest a minimum cost saving of about US$30 million per annum to up to about US$80 million-US$100 million per annum.

Source: theedgesingapore.com

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capita ... -amid-mass

[winston]

not vested

Focus on growth
1H23 results preview: narrower adj.EBITDA losses

We estimate 1H23 GMV (2Q results due Aug-23) will fall by a slight 2% YoY to USD9.96b as recovery in the mobility business largely offset weakness in delivery due to normalisation post-Covid-19 and financial services (currently focuses on off-platform transactions - buy now, pay later) that are contribution negative.

We believe Grab was able to reduce incentives further and increase monetisation as competition eases. Hence, we estimate the adjusted EBITDA loss likely further narrowed to -USD106m in
1H23 from -USD233m in 1H22, tapering towards its breakeven target in 4QFY24E.

Retain BUY and our SOTP-based TP of USD4.00.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/329149.pdf

[behappyalways]

Grab said to be acquiring Trans-Cab (update)
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... -trans-cab