Why You Should Begin Buying the World's Safest Stocks By Porter Stansberry
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Take a look at Intel, for another example.
Intel's growth isn't as uniform as Wal-Mart's. But its share price has actually fallen substantially over the last 12 years, despite big increases to its earnings. Intel's CEO, Paul Otellini, said the most recent quarter was the best in Intel's entire history, with revenue of $10.8 billion – up 34% from last year's second quarter.
And yet, despite these record results, Intel's stock price remains near $20 – down from $70 in the late 1990s. Let me show you what that means in terms of current valuation…
I expect Intel will earn something around $15 billion this year in cash. After spending roughly $4 billion building new factories and expanding old ones, Intel will have $11 billion left over for debt repayment and distributions. Given that it only holds $2 billion in debt, I doubt any of this cash will go toward debt repayment. But to be conservative, let's assume Intel decides to repay half of its debt.
That implies it will return something around $10 billion to shareholders. (These aren't pie-in-the-sky figures. In 2008, Intel returned more than $9 billion to shareholders.)
Given Intel's $100 billion market value, my forecast is Intel will yield something around 10% to equity investors this year, including both cash dividends and stock buybacks. Meanwhile, the company is trading at a cash-earnings multiple of less than seven.
I can't stress enough how unusual it is for super-high-quality stocks to be paying dividend yields that are actually bigger than their earnings multiple. Opportunities to buy stocks at such low prices only occur around market bottoms.
The point, as I'm sure you've gotten by now, is that these companies, which represent some of the finest examples of capitalism in the world, are
trading at silly cheap prices. And while I have very real concerns about the well-being of the global economy, I believe these firms will be far more able to weather the coming storm than just about any other kind of asset.
Here we are, 12 years after the peak of stock valuations. All of the best companies, which people were paying crazy prices to own in their 401k accounts back then, have executed either as well – or better – than any reasonable projection would have forecast. The companies earned the money they were expected to earn – sometimes more. And yet today, with these companies vastly richer, better managed, and in better competitive positions, suddenly investors don't want them anymore.
While I don't believe the stock market in general is a good buy, I do believe now is the time to buy these incredible businesses nobody else wants.
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