Grab

[winston]

vested

Grab has hit its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) breakeven forecast, posting US$29 million for the third quarter of 2023.

The transport and food-delivery operator, had at last quarter’s earnings call given guidance for adjusted Ebitda breakeven by Q3 2023.

The positive adjusted Ebitda results also beat analysts’ consensus of US$9.5 million.

Grab’s losses for the quarter narrowed to US$99 million, from US$342 million a year prior.

This was driven by a reduction in net interest expenses, fair-value losses on investments and share-based compensation expenses.

The Q3 losses included a US$70 million non-cash share-based compensation expense.

Revenue rose to US$615 million, a 61 per cent increase from US$382 million in the same period a year ago.

The company attributed this to growth across all business segments and optimisation of incentives.

The positive Ebitda, meanwhile, was attributed to increased gross merchandise value (GMV) and revenue, lowered regional corporate costs, and improved adjusted Ebitda across all business segments.

Loss per share stood at US$0.02 for the quarter, down from US$0.08 the previous year.

Source: Phillips

[winston]

vested

3Q23 results beat expectations, street FY24F adj EBITDA set to rise

3Q23 group adj EBITDA at US$29m beat consensus expectations of US$16m, on better-than-expected performance in all the four segments

Grab raised FY23 revenue guidance by 3% to US$2.32bn while lowered adj EBITDA loss by 32% to (US$22m) approximately.

Expect consensus to raise FY24F adj EBITDA by 9% to meet our projections on expected improvements in Deliveries & Fintech segments

Maintain BUY for GRAB with an unchanged TP of US$4.29.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=17141

[winston]

vested

Relief rally from Meituan staying away

Meituan's management has commented that they are not interested in acquiring Foodpanda.

This should remove a key overhang from Grab’s stock price.

Maintain BUY on Grab with unchanged TP of US$4.26

Meituan is not interested in acquiring Foodpanda. As we understand, Meituan's management has commented during an investor conference, that they are not interested in acquiring Foodpanda business.

We have also confirmed this development with Meituan. In our view, delivery-only business excluding Indonesia and Vietnam (where Foodpanda does not have a presence) is a sub-scale business, comprising just 5-6% of the size of delivery market in China.

This should remove a key overhang from Grab’s stock price. This has been a key overhang on Grab’s stock price due to potential entry of a big player like Meituan who could have challenged Grab.

Grab's stock price has corrected ~10% in the last two weeks on rumors of Meituan potentially acquiring Foodpanda business and we expect a relief rally subsequently.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=17450

[winston]

vested

Window of Accumulation

FY24F/25F adj group EBITDA lowered by 13%/8%, bringing us in line with consensus, mobility growth expectations trimmed.

Slower recovery in tourism and airport rides may lead to a 14% mobility GMV growth in FY24F (vs. 17% prev.)

BUY with a lower TP of US$4.08 for a 40% upside potential. Excluding Fintech losses, GRAB remains attractive with a 40% discount to UBER

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=17808

[winston]

vested

4Q23F: Deliveries GMV growth soft

ADD - Maintained |
USD3.21 tp:USD4.300
Mkt.Cap:US$12532.00m
Avg.Daily Vol:US$53.93m
Free Float:96.40%

We expect Grab’s 4Q23F revenue and adj. EBITDA to be in line; but GMV growth could come in softer vs. consensus on weaker Deliveries growth.

Key growth focus on FY24F include deepening market penetration via
1) affordable offerings
2) advertising services and
3) fintech services

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 4521dfcf6f

[winston]

vested

Grab, GoTo are said to revive talks for ride-hailing mega merger

By Olivia Poh, Elffie Chew & Manuel Baigorri

One potential option is for Singapore-based Grab to acquire GoTo using cash, stock, or a combination of the two.

Options the companies have explored also include splitting up their main markets, with Grab gaining control of its Singapore home base and some other markets, while GoTo retains control in Indonesia.

Each company has tens of millions of ride-hailing users, and a merger could help them raise rates and find synergies in major markets such as Indonesia where competition has kept prices low.

A bigger size could also help the combined entity become stronger in higher-margin services such as digital payments and banking.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/700539

[winston]

not vested

Grab reports first quarterly profit of US$11 mil for 4QFY2023

by Felicia Tan

Earnings of US$11 million ($14.8 million) for the 4QFY2023 ended Dec 31, 2023, its first quarterly profit. In comparison, the ride-hailing company reported losses of US$391 million in the 4QFY2022.

For the FY2023, the group still made a loss of US$485 million, albeit at a 72% y-o-y improvement.

Revenue for the 4QFY2023 grew by 30% y-o-y to US$653 million.

For the FY2023, revenue rose by 65% y-o-y to US$2.36 billion.

As at Dec 31, 2023, the group also reported positive adjusted free cash flow of US$1 million from the negative adjusted free cash flow of US$32 million.

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capita ... l-4qfy2023

[winston]

not vested

Grab slides after poor sales outlook clouds maiden buyback plan

By Olivia Poh

Forecasted 2024 revenue below analysts’ estimates, suggesting a deeper-than-anticipated slowdown in its core online business.

Expects a 14% to 17% rise in sales to US$2.7 billion (RM12.8 billion) to US$2.75 billion, lagging the US$2.8 billion average projection.

Buy back US$500 million.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/701973

[winston]

not vested

Grab is reporting its first profitable quarter since business combination, with a profit of US$11 million.

Revenue for the quarter grew 30 per cent to US$653 million from US$502 million a year prior. This exceeded analysts’ consensus of US$638.6 million for the quarter.

Revenue growth was attributed to improved performance across all business segments as well as reductions in incentives.

Incentives for the fourth quarter of 2023 were cut to 7.3 per cent of gross merchandise value (GMV), from 8.2 per cent of GMV in Q4 2022.

Group adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) for Q4 2023 was US$35 million, a reversal from a negative group adjusted Ebitda of US$111 million in Q4 2022.

The quarter’s group adjusted Ebitda is also higher than Q3 2023’s Ebitda of US$29 million.

Profit was driven by improvements to group adjusted Ebitda, fair-value changes in investments, and lowered share-based compensation expenses.

A reversal of an accounting accrual being no longer required also aided the group in turning profitable.

Source: Phillips

[winston]

not vested

4Q23 in line with consensus; FY24F guidance disappoints the market

4Q23 group adj EBITDA of US$35m was in line with consensus’ US$35m-40m.

Adj EBITDA improved sequentially across all segments except fintech which declined due to
Digital bank launch in Malaysia

FY24F group adj EBITDA guidance of US$180m-US$200m, is ~21% below consensus at the mid-point; we see room for guidance to be raised like last year, led by reduction in fintech losses

Too conservative guidance led to a sharp correction in the stock price.

BUY GRAB with an unchanged TP of US$4.08. GRAB is trading at 15x EV to FY24F adj EBITDA (ex fintech losses), at a 42% discount to UBER’s 26x.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=18333