Intel Corp (INTC)

[winston]

HERE'S A BULLISH SIGN FROM THE BELL COW OF TECH by Brian Hunt

More from the "getting less bad" department: Intel is still well above the crucial $12 level we detailed back in February.

Longtime readers know we track Intel shares for unfiltered feedback on the health of the global economy. Intel is the world's biggest producer of the tiny engines that run the world's computers. And in today's age, that's saying Intel powers the world. When the global economy deteriorates, Intel shares do the same. When the global economy gets "less bad," Intel shares get "less bad" with it.

Count Intel in the "less bad" category right now. Shares approached their November low of $12 when the market sold off last month. But in a bullish sign for the economy, they refused to sink past that low... and even rallied to $15. They're stubbornly holding that level now.

This newfound strength isn't cause to celebrate the end of job losses and foreclosures... But if this bell cow remains in the $14-$15 area, it's a sign folks are still buying the tiny engines that drive commerce... and it's a sign things are getting "less bad."

[winston]

BIG NEWS: INTEL HIT A SIX-MONTH HIGH by Brian Hunt

Those headlines we told you about are coming...

Last month, we claimed if shares in semiconductor giant Intel continue rising, it's a sign things are getting "less bad" for the world economy. Intel's products are like the high-tech version of copper... They're in everything around you these days.

Intel isn't just "holding the line" around $12. As you can see from this week's chart, the stock broke out to a new six-month high yesterday. This sustained rally in one of our favorite barometers of global economic health says get ready to read headlines like "semiconductor sales fall less than expected" and "global economy getting less bad" a few months from now.

- Brian Hunt

[winston]

THE BEAR MARKET IN INTEL IS OFFICIALLY OVER by Brian Hunt, Daily Wealth

This week, one of our "real world" indicators reported "real hideous" first-quarter earnings.

Our indicator is the most dominant semiconductor company on the planet, Intel. We track Intel because it's a high-tech version of copper. Intel produces the tiny engines that run the world's computers... which is like saying Intel powers the world.

On Tuesday, Intel revealed it isn't powering much these days. Sales are down 26% from this time last year. Profit fell 55%. Intel also offered a "blurry" outlook for the rest of the year. Wall Street hates "blurry." So what happened to Intel shares?

As you can see from today's chart, they held the $15-$16 area like a rock. Mark this as a bullish signal for the economy and stocks in general. When a beaten-down market refuses to decline on bad news, it's a sign the downtrend is exhausted... that all the bad news (like a 26% sales decline) is priced into the market. The bear market in Intel is over.

[winston]

INTEL HAS COMFORTABLY BROKEN OUT TO $16 PER SHARE by Brian Hunt, Daily Wealth

On March 13, we wrote how a rally in Intel's stock would lead us to believe things were getting "less bad" in the world.

Intel is the world's dominant producer of semiconductors... the little "engines" that power everything from cars and coal plants to televisions and telephones. Its share price gives us an "unfiltered" look at what's happening in the economy.

When Intel began rallying in March, we pointed out the amazing predictive ability of the stock market and claimed, "What you see happen in the market today will be in the newspapers three to six months from now. If Intel works its way above $15, you'll be reading things like 'semiconductor demand falls less than expected' in September."

As you can see from today's chart, Intel has comfortably "broken out" to a new six-month high. And what's this? Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that semi sales, while terrible in March, were "less terrible" than those in February. Intel is rising... sales are getting less bad... and the "long global recovery" trade is on...

[winston]

Rosy projections from Intel and all the techs are moving ..

But wait a minute, who's buying all those computer chips ?

1) I know that some rural people in China have been buying alot of stuff due to the stimulus program. That did translate to some restocking by the Taiwanese companies

2) However, US, Europe & Japan have been slow. Are they restocking for Christmas now ?

Can trust all these rosy chip projections or not ?

[winston]

Companies like to "sand-bag" expectations. This means coming out with not so rosy predictions but produce results that are above expectations.

In view of the above, So I was a bit surprised when Intel came out with a rosy picture of the future, raising expectations ..

Now I know why. They may be fined a lot of money in Europe ..

[millionairemind]

This news sparked the rally in futures and Asian markets..

July 15, 2009, 6.07 am (Singapore time)

Intel results, outlook trump expectations

SAN FRANCISCO - Intel Corp's quarterly results and outlook blew past Wall Street expectations on Tuesday, starting the technology sector's earnings season with a bang.

Shares of Intel jumped 8 per cent on the report, which also bolstered shares of arch rival Advanced Micro Devices and other technology stocks.

The world's largest chip maker projected third-quarter revenue at US$8.1 billion to US$8.9 billion, compared with analysts' average forecast of US$7.82 billion, according to Reuters Estimates.

Intel saw third-quarter gross margin at 53 per cent, plus or minus 2 percentage points, an improvement from the second quarter's 51 per cent.

'They guided gross margins for the third quarter of 53 per cent and the whisper was 50 per cent to 51 per cent. A nice way to kick off earnings season for tech companies,' said Patrick Wang, an analyst at Wedbush Morgan.

Intel's microprocessors are used in more than three-quarters of the world's personal computers, so the company's results are a barometer for the global PC sector.

Intel has felt the effects of the economic recession and the slowdown in technology spending, though Chief Executive Paul Otellini said in April that PC sales had 'bottomed out' in the first quarter and that the industry was returning to seasonal business patterns.

The chipmaker posted a net loss of US$398 million, or 7 cents a share, for the second quarter, after taking charges related to a US$1.45 billion fine imposed by European regulators, which ruled in May that Intel abused its market position to squeeze out AMD. Intel has said it intends to appeal the ruling.

This time last year, Intel earned US$1.6 billion in net income, or 28 cents a share.

Excluding the charges, Intel said it earned 18 cents a share in the second quarter, beating by far the average analyst forecast of 8 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

Revenue in the three months ending June 27 was US$8 billion, down 15 per cent year-over-year, but well above the average forecast of US$7.27 billion expected by analysts.

Intel Chief Financial Officer Stacy Smith attributed the upside to strengthening computer markets and strong execution within the company. Intel saw 'pockets of relative strength' in consumer PC markets as well as in the Asia Pacific region and in China, Mr Smith told Reuters.

The executive noted that the corporate market remains weak and that Intel does not expect does not expect much of a change in the second half of the year.

Intel had stopped providing investors with official financial guidance in January, limiting its comments to internal revenue targets. Mr Smith said on Tuesday the decision to resume guidance was a sign that the company's visibility has improved as order rates become more predictable.

Intel shares were trading at US$18.13 after hours, compared to their Nasdaq close of US$16.83. The shares have risen roughly 38 per cent since bottoming out at a 52-week low of US$12.05 in early February. -- REUTERS

[kennynah]

this may bode well for DELL, HPQ and IBM

[winston]

INTEL IS STILL ENJOYING "HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS" by Brian Hunt, Daily Wealth

Despite huge unemployment numbers and falling home prices, one of our favorite economic indicators is still doing well.

You can sift through government reports and newspapers for the "skinny" on what's happening in the world. But don't forget the lazy man's (aka, the "smart man's") method of monitoring things: Watch the market. For instance, watch the market for semiconductors...

Almost everything around you is tied to computing power... from refrigerators to stop lights to airplanes. Heck, even some toilets are computerized. The computer and electronics industries place new orders only when their customers demand new stuff. Orders translate into profits for companies like Intel, the world's dominant semiconductor maker.

There's an entire army of money managers and analysts going over Intel's profit figures... which lets them determine the price of Intel's shares. All of these customers, producers, and analysts come together to give us an unvarnished read on where the economy is.

So what is Intel saying about the market right now? As you can see, the stock is still enjoying a series of "higher highs and higher lows." Until the uptrend fails, we have to listen to the market's take: "Things aren't so bad out there."

[winston]

THE MARKET ALWAYS LEADS THE NEWS by Brian Hunt, Daily Wealth

The past five month's trading in Intel (INTC) is a study in the old trader's mantra "the market leads the news, not the other way around."

Back in the dark days of February, we began writing about the strength in Intel shares as a sign that things were getting "less bad" in the world. Intel is the world's dominant computer chip maker... so its share price action is a read on the health of tech spending... which is a reading on the health of the economy in today's age.

We continually updated you on how Intel was rising and rising... which would precede the "things are getting less bad" stories in the newspapers.

As Intel's action early this year "predicted," financial headlines are full of positive stories now. Let this be a lesson to anyone who believes they can make money trading after news is released: You cannot. You can only lose money trading that way. As Intel has proved once again, the market always leads the news. Never the other way around.