Grab

[winston]

not vested

Why Grab Holdings Plunged Today

by Billy Duberstein

Key Points

Grab delivered a revenue beat but only met earnings expectations.

Still, EBITDA profitability increased as the company's margins expanded.

It's difficult to pinpoint the reason for today's sell-off, making the stock look attractive after the pullback.

Source: The Motley Fool

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-grab ... 44849.html

[winston]

not vested

Grab - A - Stock Analyst Research
Target Price* US 7.00
Recommendation BUY

Grab Holdings- Product-led strategy gaining momentum

Both 3Q25 revenue and PATMI met our estimates.

9M25 revenue/PATMI were at 72%/60% of our FY25e forecasts. We expect PATMI to be backloaded in 4Q25 as the company turns more profitable.

Revenue growth remains strong, +22% YoY to US$873mn in 3Q25. Growth was propelled by strong performances in both On-Demand services (+20% YoY) and Financial Services arm (+41% YoY).

We increase our FY25e/FY26e revenue and PATMI by 1%/1% and 2%/3% to account for higher growth prospects and expanding margin for both on-demand and financial services.

We decrease our beta to 0.98 as Grab turns profitable and business volatility has come down.

We maintain our BUY recommendation and increase our DCF target price to US$7.00 (prev.US$5.80), with a WACC of 7.4% and terminal growth rate of 3.5%

Grab’s product-led strategy is helping it drive share gains in both mobility and delivery.

Source: Phillips

https://www.poems.com.sg/stock-research/GRAB/

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Grab Holdings On Track to Become AV Leader in Southeast Asia

Among the technologies Grab is testing are autonomous vehicles. When approved, Grab would be positioned to be the first, to offer autonomous transportation services in the region.

In the meantime, the company has sustained double-digit growth, moved toward profitability and continues to receive supportive analyst coverage.

Grab saw numerous price target increases in Q4 2025. For this Moderate Buy-rated stock, analysts expect roughly 22% upside on consensus, with some high-end estimates calling for as much as 35% upside.

Analysts point to the successful monetization of the superapp, the company's pivot to profitability, expanding services, and ongoing user growth as reasons to remain bullish.

They forecast a sustained ~30% revenue CAGR through the early part of the next decade, compounded by improving margins.

If Grab meets those expectations, trading at about four times its projected 2035 earnings could look like a bargain for patient investors.

Source: The Markets Daily

[winston]

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Commission cap overhang

Indonesia is considering capping ride-hailing commissions at 10%.

We estimate c.5-10% FY26F EBITDA downside from this risk but we believe Grab can partially offset this through alternative monetisation levers.

4Q25F preview: adj. EBITDA remained stable at US$487m on the back of higher on-demand GMV but margin likely declined due to higher incentives.

Maintain Add and US$7.20 TP. We believe Grab can deliver positive adj. EBITDA by FY27F as financial services losses continue to narrow.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 6520e5eeca

[winston]

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Grab announced its first year in the black with FY2025 earnings of US$268 million on Thursday (Feb 12), reversing from a loss of US$105 million in FY2024.

Earnings for Q4 2025 jumped over six times to US$171 million from US$27 million a year prior.

This was driven by higher operating profit and net finance income.

Revenue for the period grew 19 per cent to US$906 million from US$764 million in Q4 2025.

Source: Phillips

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Setting the bar high

Grab reports its first full-year profit in 2025F and set a high target of US$1.5b adjusted EBITDA for 2028F.

FY26F adjusted EBITDA to grow 43% yoy, with 20% yoy on-demand GMV growth, improving margin and financial services to breakeven in end-2026F.

Maintain Add, with a lower target price of US$6.25.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 56DB0D6C80

[winston]

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Rare long-term visibility in AI uncertain tech

Clarity amidst uncertainty Grab’s introduction of 2028 targets — revenue CAGR of 20%, adjusted EBITDA USD1.5b and 80% adjusted FCF conversion.

Came as a notable positive surprise, strengthening visibility at a time when investors remain concerned about AI-driven disruption and disintermediation risks.

For an on-demand platform, debates have centred on AVs potentially diluting mobility economics and AI/chat interfaces weakening food delivery aggregation models.

The long-term guidance signals management’s confidence that AI and automation creates opportunities rather than disruptions.

The 2028 EBITDA target sits ahead of the street and our expectations (USD1.3–1.4bn), implying scope for future upgrades.

Importantly, this growth visibility is complemented by a USD500m share repurchase programme, positioning Grab as a relatively rare combination of credible long-term growth and capital return.

Trim TP to USD6.44. BUY.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/513460.pdf

[winston]

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Bernstein Remains a Buy on Grab Holdings (GRAB) Despite Mixed FQ4 2025 Results

by Talha Qureshi

Three-year plan aiming for $1.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA by FY28.

Source: Insider Monkey

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bernstei ... 07979.html

[winston]

not vested

Grab - A - Stock Analyst Research
Target Price* US 7.00
Recommendation BUY

Grab Holdings - First full year of net profit

4Q25 revenue was in line with our estimates, while 4Q25 PATMI outperformed due to operating leverage and higher-margin monetisation (fintech + ads).

FY25 revenue/PATMI were at 99%/153% of our FY25 forecasts.

Revenue growth remains strong, +19% YoY to US$906mn in 4Q25.

Growth was propelled by strong performances in both On-Demand services (+17% YoY) and the Financial Services arm (+34% YoY).

We maintain our BUY recommendation with an unchanged DCF target price of US$7.00.

We roll over our valuations to FY26e and increase our FY26e revenue and PATMI by 1% and 2% to account for higher growth prospects and expanding margins for both on-demand and financial services.

Our WACC and terminal growth rate remains unchanged.

Grab has successfully transformed into a higher-margin, ecosystem-led monetisation model, we are positive on the long-term growth prospect with strong growth momentum in both on-demand and financial services.

Source: Phillips

https://www.poems.com.sg/stock-research/GRAB/

[winston]

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Singapore's Grab aims to triple profit by 2028 after 1st year in black

Plan focuses on 'organic growth' and aggressive investment in advanced technologies

by FUMIKA SATO

Aim to increase revenue by 70% from the fiscal year ended December and triple its key profit metric, adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), to $1.5 billion.

Roughly one in five of Southeast Asia's 700 million people uses Grab at least once a year.

Grab expanded its share of the Southeast Asia food delivery market to 55% in 2025, a 1.2 percentage point increase from the year before.

Source: Nikkei Asia

https://asia.nikkei.com/business/compan ... r-in-black