Alibaba (BABA)/ 9988 HK; Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Apr 21)

Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 13, 2016 12:52 pm

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Stocks to Sell Soon #4: Alibaba (BABA)

There’s nothing inherently wrong with Chinese e-commerce outfit Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA). The company is still growing, and widening its profit margins.

BABA shares are also up 66% since February’s bottom, confirming that traders are falling in love with the stock all over again.

But that might be a recipe for disappointment.

While Alibaba continues to grow, its sheer size makes it increasingly difficult to post the strong double-digit year-over-year growth rates that investors have become accustomed to.

In fact, Alibaba is now being forced to buy growth, investing $760 million in startup Best Logistics last week. Meanwhile, its effort to gain consumer confidence by preventing the sale of counterfeit goods through its web-based mall isn’t going all that well.

It leads to a combination of weakening demand and greater expenses that the recent rally says traders aren’t expecting.

Source: Investor Place
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 20, 2016 8:28 pm

Jack Ma’s Finance Business May Be Worth More Than Goldman Sachs

by Lulu Yilun Chen

CLSA analyst Leung estimates business value is $75 billion
Alibaba affiliate said to consider IPO in Hong Kong next year

Source: Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... dman-sachs
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:55 pm

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Deutsche: Why Alibaba Can Rise Another 30%

By Shuli Ren

Alibaba Group‘s (BABA) shares have been rising fast, soaring 42% in the last three months and prompting Deutsche Bank to raise its price target by another 27% to $138.

So where does analyst Alan Hellawell see the extra 27% upside? It is Alipay:

Our recently concluded survey of 1,000 smartphone owners in China surprised us profoundly. While much has been written about Tenpay’s impressive gains in usage, Alipay continues to enjoy the widest usage across online activities (at 40.8% on average), with Tenpay at 12.0%.

Alipay also remains the go-to platform for O2O activities; processing 37.4% of O2O spend (Tenpay at 19.6%).

Respondents moreover indicate a greater willingness to expand use of Alipay (80%) over Tenpay (71%) within two years’ time.

Of greatest interest in our study, the first in our series on China on-line finance, was the discovery that many Chinese consumers steadfastly prefer Alipay, this while the payments eco-system deepens its embrace of Tenpay.

Mobile payment is so convenient in mainland China, especially in big cities. You can leave your wallet at home and go out with your just phone!

AliPay has 451 million users, 2.4 times the size of PayPal‘s. And Alibaba dominates 80% of China’s mobile shopping.

Deutsche Bank believes AntFinancial, which AliPay is part of, is worth $67 billion, or $8.50 per share considering Alibaba owns 1/3 of the company.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... nother-30/
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:47 am

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) Is Just Getting Started on Its Upward Hike

BABA appears destined for AMZN-like growth

By Chris Fraley

Acquisitions of video-streaming website Youku Tudou, e-commerce company Lazada Group and web browser UCWeb have all contributed to Alibaba’s burgeoning mobile presence.


There are two numbers that make me particularly bullish on BABA stock even after its 60%-plus, 12-month rally: $13.8 billion and 25.

The former is the amount of cash Alibaba has in its coffers even after its recent spending spree — leaving room for more key acquisitions — and the latter is its forward price-to-earnings ratio, which is quite cheap for a company with sales growing this fast. By comparison, AMZN trades at 80 times forward earnings estimates.


Source: Investor Place

http://investorplace.com/2016/10/baba-s ... _MIkuB96M8
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 11, 2016 9:58 am

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Alibaba: Why JL Warren Capital Sees No Upside

By Shuli Ren

Is Ant Financial’s IPO drawing near?

Lately, brokerages from Deutsche Bank to CLSA have been raising their price targets for Alibaba Group (BABA), seeing potential in e-Finance and consumer cloud business.

Earlier this month, Hong Kong local media was talking about Ant Financial listing in Hong Kong early next year, a rumor the financial company denied. Alibaba has 1/3 stake in Ant Financial.

Billionaire Jack Ma, chairman of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., speaks at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in Manila, the Philippines, on Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2015. Businesses and people should be free to trade because it’s a human right and represents freedom, Ma told the APEC summit.

But according to JL Warren Capital, an independent China research shop and largely a China bear, Alibaba has little upside left at its current share price.

JL Warren has no issue with Ant Financial, valuing the business at $80 billion, a third higher than Ant Financial’s latest round of private placement. It reckons Alibaba’s cloud business is worth $15-16 per share, in line with perpetually optimistic CLSA’s valuation.

Of course JL Warren talked about weak China macro again, but this time, the research shop’s key point is that China’s e-commerce is already becoming saturated. The research shop wrote:

A weak retail environment has accelerated e-tail industry consolidation, benefiting BABA, JD and VIPS to various degrees. The upside however, is partially offset by the softness in macro-economy and the overall online market saturation.

In some extreme cases, the oversaturation of Ecommerce has resulted in many online merchandisers reversing trend and going back to traditional brick and mortal retail, citing customer acquisition costs as too high.

According to our checks with the merchandisers associations in major markets, ~15% Ecommerce providers have dropped out of the T-mall platform, as they have been consistently unprofitable on rising traffic acquisition and conversion cost coupled with rising transaction fees to BABA.

JL Warren values Alibaba Group at $106 per share. “Our price target of $106 is based on the Sum-of-Parts analysis of the conglomerate, using 15% holdingco discount.”

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... no-upside/
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Oct 12, 2016 8:49 am

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Investors are gearing up for the IPO of Ant Financial, the US$60 billion online finance arm spun off by e-commerce giant Alibaba, will have to wait until at least late 2017, as the business puts growth first, Reuters reported.

Sources with knowledge of the plans said Ant Financial, whose anchor business is Alipay, China's largest online payments service, is focusing on expanding its existing 450 million-strong army of daily users by adding merchants and customers.

One source said that, as of last month, Ant had yet to contact Chinese regulators to start the lengthy listing process and join a queue of more than 700 companies waiting to list.

An Ant spokeswoman said the group had not set a timetable or location for its listing, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission did not comment.

Source: The Standard
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:46 am

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HK part of Alibaba big bang

by Esther Yu

Dining with the Alibaba chairman Jack Ma-yun turns out to be the final prize of this year's Singles' Day.

The e-commerce giant started the countdown to its annual shopping festival Singles' Day today. The one-day event, held annually on November 11, sees billions of dollars of goods sold via Alibaba's Tmall platform at steep discounts, and is a barometer for the firm's performance. Transactions last year broke past US$14 billion.

Apart from the routine promotion activities in previous years. Alibaba's Tmall has partnered with malls and food chain like KFC and Starbucks to put out an AR backed mobile game, where users can open the Taobao app and "catch kittens" at specific locations. Those who accumulated certain catches are to be rewarded with free coffee and so on.

The ultimate winner of the game is rewarded with "what money can't buy," which is to "share a special meal with Ma at a mysterious location." The firm said that Ma will also participate the game which is going to launch on October 27.

The firm also plans to expand Singles' Day sales globally this year, opening up Hong Kong and Taiwan as the first markets outside China where consumers will be able to buy international products via Tmall.

The plan is part of the firm's efforts to reduce reliance on China, where it generates the bulk of its revenue, and where flagging economic growth threatens to slow Alibaba's earnings.

"Last year we brought many international brands to China for the first time," Alibaba chief executive Daniel Zhang said in Hong Kong yesterday.

"We are bringing them to consumers in Hong Kong and Taiwan for the first time this year, and next it will be Southeast Asia and the rest of the world," he said.

Source: The Standard
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Oct 26, 2016 11:00 am

Short-seller Chanos lays out his bear case for Alibaba

by Christine Wang

His fundamental problem with the company is that "you don't see the entire operation of Alibaba."

The founder of Kynikos Associates said there's not enough detail about the individual delivery and warehouse companies that distribute items purchased through Alibaba.


"I would want to know if I'm investing in a $280 billion company that's supposedly on the forefront of the digital revolution of China why it's so cash flow negative and we can't good answers"


Source: CNBC

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-sel ... 48447.html
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 02, 2016 6:25 am

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Alibaba Stock Sinks: Insider Aiding SEC Inquiry?

By Dimitra DeFotis

At least one Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) whistleblower is providing information to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as it investigates the Chinese internet retail giant’s accounting practices, The New York Post reports.

Shares of Alibaba were down 1.6% in early trading today, while shares of Latin American internet retail platform MercadoLibre (MELI) are up 0.5% and shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) are up 0.8%.

According to The Post’s Alibaba story, which cites an anonymous source:

“One mole was identified as a ‘high-up’ official at Alibaba ‘who helped initiate the investigation’ earlier this year, according to a source close to the situation.”

The SEC was reportedly investigating Alibaba’s lack of accounting for partial ownership in a logistics and transport operation called Cainiao Network, which Alibaba defended, and clarified on page 122 of a 20-F SEC filing.

Another area of scrutiny: Alibaba’s reporting of the massive annual one-day “Singles Day” shopping promotion, which Alibaba this year is marketing early with a new name: the 11.11 Global Shopping Festival.

Source: Barron's

http://finance.yahoo.com/m/4801b011-885 ... sider.html
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Re: Alibaba (BABA) / Jack Ma 02 (May 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 02, 2016 10:49 am

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Alibaba: What Analysts Are Saying Ahead Of Earnings

By Shuli Ren

Short interest in Alibaba has surged 49% this year, as U.S. investors bet Alibaba’s revenue growth numbers are too good to be true.

The street sees Alibaba’s third-quarter revenue to grow 54% from a year ago to 34.1 billion yuan, hardly any slowdown from second-quarter’s 59% year-on-year growth (to 32.2 billion yuan).

Skeptics wonder how Alibaba can grow so fast considering the China’s economic growth has slowed to 6.7% (max).


T.H. Capital estimates that Alibaba’s total gross merchandise value will likely increase only 22% from a year ago, or 4% rise quarter-on-quarter. Some of the faster revenue growth will have to come from higher commission rates.


“Given the recent price cut announcement by AliCloud, we are now forecasting profitability timing for cloud business pushed off to Dec 2017 as Ali is likely to reinvest and scarify any nearterm margins improvement for greater market share gain in light of rising competition in cloud business,” notes Citi Research.


Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... -earnings/
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