Chipotle (CMG)

[winston]

not vested

THIS POPULAR RESTAURANT CHAIN JUST BROKE DOWN

It has been a tough year for one of the country's most popular restaurant chains...

We're talking about Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). The $12 billion burrito chain was once a market darling and one of the fastest-growing restaurant chains in the U.S. In 2015, the company generated $4.5 billion in sales – or about $2.5 million per location.

But last summer, a handful of foodborne illness outbreaks caused research firms to downgrade the company on the expectation of lower sales and rising costs for food safety and employee training.

Though the company is a well-run, high-quality business that still turns an impressive profit on a per-location basis, the scare spooked most investors. Since peaking in August, shares are down nearly 48%, and just hit their lowest level in nearly three years.

Though the food-safety concerns are a nonissue to the vast majority of its customers, it's a reminder that even the best businesses suffer temporary setbacks from time to time.

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

not vested

Chipotle (CMG) Stock: Why $547 Price Target Is TOTAL BS

PLEASE think twice before snapping up any Chipotle stock

By John Divine

In Q1, Chipotle earned operating cash flows of $61.7 million, while spending $583.8 million, or 9.5 times that amount, on stock buybacks. That sort of spending is clearly unsustainable and ultimately unwise.

Source: Investor Place

http://investorplace.com/2016/06/chipot ... 2S4_Lh96M8

[winston]

not vested

Stocks That Will Surprise in 2018: Chipotle (CMG)

If it weren’t for bad luck, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG), would have no luck at all.

I can remember how some analysts and investors were chastising Chipotle for going overboard on food preparation procedures after its E.coli outbreak a couple of years ago.

2017’s revisit of food safety concerns put the brakes on any chance for a recovery of its stock price which lost 23% in the past year.

Kyle Woodley, a former InvestorPlace editor and very astute investor, recently picked CMG as his “Best stock for 2018” suggesting profits and revenues are growing far more than most investors realize, and while his pick is speculative given the company’s history, the upside seems higher than the downside at this point.

I have to give former CEO and co-founder Steve Ells credit for stepping down in November as Chipotle’s chief executive. It’s never easy to admit that you’re not the one to lead your baby back from the wilderness, but shareholders ought to be thankful that Ells could see that a leadership change was necessary.

Who Chipotle hires as the man or woman to lead the company is critical to bouncing back in 2018. I think the board will make a smart choice with Ells’ input and it will be off to the races.

It would not surprise me if a former McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) executive were at the top of the list.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

vested

A Bullish Case For Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill's (NYSE:CMG) performance in 2017 was nasty. However that could benefit the stock in early 2018.

I say that because sellers dumped the stock in late 2017 to offset capital gains and reduce taxes. Essentially, if an investor was going to sell, she would have done it in 2017 to save money. That limits the amount of sellers in early 2018 (as long as there is no new bad news).

Watch For A Bounce

Chipotle's valuation is now actually semi-attractive, especially on the heels os the S&P 500's P/E expansion.

The fast-casual chain did not make a new 52-week low in the last month – even with those tax-loss sellers.

Instead, the stock filled a major support-gap fill and is holding it nicely. These factors have me positioning for a bounce in early 2018.

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/the- ... -200277083

[winston]

vested

What Analysts Recommend for Chipotle

By Ralph Nathan

Jan 4, 2018

Target price
As of December 28, 2017, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) was trading at $294.06. On the same day, analysts were expecting the stock to reach $317.26 in the next four quarters, which represents a return potential of 7.9%.

Before the announcement of Chipotle’s 3Q17 earnings, analysts had forecast a 12-month target price of $375.46. The company’s lower-than-expected 3Q17 earnings and lowering of its 2017 SSSG (same-store sales growth) guidance may have prompted analysts to lower their target prices.

Analysts’ ratings
Of the 35 analysts following Chipotle, 17.1% recommend “buy,” 68.6% recommend “hold,” and 14.3% recommend “sell.”

Valuation multiples
As of December 29, 2017, Chipotle was trading at 31.2x

Source: Market Realist

https://marketrealist.com/2018/01/analy ... chipotle-2

[winston]

not vested

Chipotle: Trying to Move Beyond Montezuma

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) was down about 23% in 2017, and it was given the dubious honor of having one of the worst 20 CEOs in 2017. That’s about to change with new blood to run the company, but the reality is that investors are going to demand that Chipotle demonstrate that it can grow back into a desirable company.

This was the poster-child food stock for millennials before it started getting its customers sick. The big problem is not just that Chipotle shares fell to less than $300 recently from about $500 a year ago. The big problem here is that Chipotle’s stock price is down from $750 back in 2015.

For Chipotle to win, it will have to do a better job of convincing customers that it is safe. The sad thing is that if someone catches a cold after having been at a Chipotle in the past week, the company might get blamed.

People in America get sick from food-borne illnesses and cleanliness issues every day of the week. Chipotle just has to be able to demonstrate that it is back to way above average and that this is a time to focus on the core brand. Again, it’s a “show me!” story that has to be lived up to.

At $289.00 at the end of 2017, Chipotle shares have a 52-week range of $263.00 to $499.00 and a consensus price target of $317.26. Its market cap is $8.2 billion.

Turnaround buyers have committed at least some hope that 2018 will be the big turnaround year. After all, its shares have rallied almost 10% in the first week of the year. Chipotle’s stock was last seen at $318.47.

Source: 24/7 Wall Street

[winston]

Chipotle earnings: Brand is still ailing from illness outbreaks

By Tonya Garcia

“Heightened competition, a difficult industry environment, and brand perception challenges highlight risks to sales and earnings growth.”

UBS cut Chipotle’s price target to $290 from $345.

Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chipo ... 2018-02-01

[winston]

not vested

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Has a Deliciously Bullish Order on the Menu

Hold the queso, but I’ll gladly take a bullish vertical in CMG stock

By CHRIS TYLER

Downward revision from “neutral” to “sell” by UBS

The firm cited a worrisome trend in online customer reviews still hitting all-time-lows and how the negativity could impact sales and earnings growth.

Next Tuesday night, Chipotle delivers its Q4 earnings and investors will find out if UBS’ bold sell recommendation and rationale, proves presciently on the right side of things or not;

Source: Investor Place

https://investorplace.com/2018/02/chipo ... nWLzaiWaM8

[winston]

Chipotle expects fewer restaurant customers through July, shares fall

by Lisa Baertlein

(Reuters) - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG.N) said on Tuesday the number of visitors to its restaurants fell in the fourth quarter and would continue to decline through the middle of the year, sending shares of the burrito chain down 5 percent.

Chipotle has been fighting to lure back old customers and entice new ones to its restaurants since a series of food safety lapses in 2015 that crushed its sales and reputation. Instead, customer traffic fell about 3 percent in the fourth quarter.

The purveyor of made-to-order burritos raised prices by roughly 5 percent in 2017, out of step with many national fast-food chains trumpeting low-price “value menu” deals. McDonald’s Corp (MCD.N), which has been gaining marketshare, intensified the pressure in January with a new $1, $2, $3 menu.

Those price hikes contributed to a slightly better-than-expected rise in fourth-quarter sales at established restaurants, but the company’s expectations for customer visits, also known as traffic, sent Chipotle’s stock down $15.33 to $289.

Its stock hit a high of more than $742 in 2015, before E.coli, salmonella and norovirus outbreaks sickened hundreds of U.S. customers.

Chipotle’s latest earnings performance is likely to test investor patience, especially that of its largest one Pershing Square Capital Management, a $9 billion hedge fund run by William Ackman that has a 10 percent stake in the chain.

Under pressure from Ackman and other investors, Chipotle has revamped its board and management, strengthened its food safety and gave away millions of dollars in free food.

In November, founder and Chief Executive Steve Ells said he would step aside after failing for two years to rescue sales and the company’s reputation.

Sales at Chipotle restaurants open at least 13 months rose 0.9 percent for the fourth quarter as lower traffic figures partially erased the gain from menu price increases.

To tackle declining footfall and weak sales, executives outlined plans to launch a loyalty program at mid-year and to redesign restaurants to accommodate mobile orders, delivery and catering.

Net profit was $43.8 million, or $1.55 per share.

Excluding a 21 cent per share gain related to U.S. tax changes, Chipotle beat Street’s profit view by 2 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Restaurant level operating margin increased to 14.9 percent, up from 13.5 percent a year earlier, but still significantly lower than peak margins of 28 percent.

Revenue jumped 7.3 percent to $1.1 billion, to match Wall Street’s view.

Chipotle forecast 2018 same-store sales in the low single-digit percentages and said it would open 130 to 150 new restaurants.

It estimated an effective tax rate for 2018 of between 30 and 31 percent, versus the 39 percent it previously expected.

The lower tax rate would result in savings of $40 million to $50 million in 2018. It plans to invest more than one-third of those savings in employee benefits, including one-time cash bonuses of up to $1,000 for crew and managers.

The chain is still searching for a new CEO to replace Ells, who has been alone at the helm since co-CEO Monty Moran was ousted in 2016.

Source: Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chip ... r%20Update

[winston]

not vested

Why Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Stock Is a Knife Worth Catching

CMG management is back on track. Go long their efforts now that they are more realistic.

By NICOLAS CHAHINE

CMG stock is bloated. Its price the earnings ratio is two and a half times that of McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD).

Source: Investor Place

https://investorplace.com/2018/02/chipo ... nvXTuhuaM8