not vested
Why Blackstone Is Credit Suisse’s Top Asset Manager Pick For 2017 By Teresa Rivas
Siegenthaler writes that Blackstone sports an attractive valuation on several metrics, and he argues that Blackstone could double its distributable earnings per share from 2015 (in the low $3 range) over the next three to five years, putting it at $6 to $7 by 2019-2021.
Putting a 9 times valuation on this distributable earnings level would put Blackstone around $60, more than double where it trades at today.
But he argues you don’t have to wait for 2019 to get results: Siegenthaler expects that 2017 will be a “significantly” stronger year than 2016, thanks to several
large real estate and private equity sales and scheduled investments, while its hedge fund business is nearing its high water mark.
More from his note:
BX is a “fundraising machine”: Key to our investment thesis is BX’s ability to
(1) innovate product and
(2) raise large amounts of capital.
Over the last three years, Blackstone has raised a similar level of capital to its four largest public competitors combined, and has generated the strongest FE AuM growth rate (despite being the largest).
Depending on the changes to tax rates (corp, accrued carry, personal…), each alternative firm has the optionality to re-class from PTP to C-corp.
We think this would greatly expand the universe of investors that could buy BX, and also allow for inclusion in key indexes (S&P 500, Russell 1000). While it is difficult to estimate the valuation step-up that the re-class could trigger, we assume at least a 5% P/E lift.
Blackstone is up 2.8% in Wednesday morning trading.
Source: Barron's
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2 ... yptr=yahoo
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"