Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961

Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:44 pm

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Consumer Discretionary Powerhouses: Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) (CTRP)

Ctrip.com (CTRP) is basically the Chinese version of Tripadvisor (TRIP) or Expedia (EXPE); it’s a travel, hotel and package tour aggregator specifically for the Chinese market.

The massive expansion of the middle class in China in recent years has meant more disposable income, allowing many Chinese who couldn’t afford to take international vacations the ability to do so.

It’s also allowed many of the people who moved to cities for opportunities to travel back home to see family.

The reality is, this market is much closer to the beginning of its trend than it is to the end. And CTRP has been a pioneer. Being that it’s based in China, it has all the advantages that come with the Chinese market.

Proof: CTRP is up 278% in the past 12 months and it’s still rapidly growing revenues and market share. It is also investing in its direct and indirect competitors, a bright hedge if I’ve ever seen one.

Source: Investor Place
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Sat May 21, 2016 9:47 am

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Disgustingly Overvalued Stocks to Sell: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Ctrip.com International (NASDAQ: CTRP)Who would’ve known that Chinese tech stocks would be prone to a bubble?

While Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) (CTRP) — an online travel booking website that stands to gain from the growing Chinese middle class — sounds pretty sexy, it’s the sexy stocks that have a tendency to fly too close to the sun.

CTRP stock has some Icarus-like qualities. It changes hands for about 60 times forward earnings and more than 10 times sales, and its price/earnings-to-growth ratio can’t even be computed (because Ctrip is actually expected to lose money this year, and earnings are expected to decline from 2015 levels over the next few years.

With an erratic history of earnings and the added risk factor of the Chinese government, which can wield its influence on a whim, the current share price doesn’t seem to reflect the risks.

Source: Investor Place
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Sat May 21, 2016 9:47 am

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Disgustingly Overvalued Stocks to Sell: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Ctrip.com International (NASDAQ: CTRP)Who would’ve known that Chinese tech stocks would be prone to a bubble?

While Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) (CTRP) — an online travel booking website that stands to gain from the growing Chinese middle class — sounds pretty sexy, it’s the sexy stocks that have a tendency to fly too close to the sun.

CTRP stock has some Icarus-like qualities. It changes hands for about 60 times forward earnings and more than 10 times sales, and its price/earnings-to-growth ratio can’t even be computed (because Ctrip is actually expected to lose money this year, and earnings are expected to decline from 2015 levels over the next few years.

With an erratic history of earnings and the added risk factor of the Chinese government, which can wield its influence on a whim, the current share price doesn’t seem to reflect the risks.

Source: Investor Place
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:49 am

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Ctrip.com Jumps 5% On Q1 Earnings Beat: Qunar Deal Reduces Costs

By Shuli Ren

In the first quarter, revenue at Ctrip grew 80% from a year ago to 4.2 billion yuan, broadly in line with the street estimate of 4.14 billion yuan.


Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... ces-costs/
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:11 am

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Moving on the right track; assume coverage with OUTPERFORM

The concerns about Ctrip over the past quarters are mainly the uncertainty over air-ticketing revenue growth post airline commission cut and the timeline to return to profit post Qunar acquisition. We believe this set of results should ease these concerns.

In particular, management guided for 90-95% YoY net revenue growth from the ticketing business in 3Q.

With two months after the new air ticket commission policy took effect (on 1 July) and the good part of the summer peak season behind us, we think this guidance provides assurance to investors on its solid ticketing business.

According to the company, ticketing volume contributed by open platform now stands at ~30% (60% before the policy change). We believe that Ctrip's OTA model has been able to fill up the gaps left by the open platform model (largely banned under the new policy) to keep the volume while crossselling efforts continue to offer support to overall take-rate at 4-5%.

As the undisputed leader in China's online travel market, we are positive on Ctrip's long-term growth prospects, driven by
(1) travel consumption upgrade,
(2) online penetration increase, and
(3) industry consolidation, which favours leading players such as Ctrip.

We assume coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating and an SOTP-based TP of US$58.

Source: Credit Suisse
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:29 am

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Ctrip.com International Ltd (ADD- Initiation, tp:US$53.00) - The travel destination

Ctrip, China’s largest online travel player, with an over-63.9% GMV market share, should be the key beneficiary of the nation’s fast-growing travel industry.

Ctrip’s comprehensive product offerings and solid ecosystem allow it to enjoy strong cross-selling capability and high customer stickiness.

We expect Ctrip to maintain strong topline growth and achieve significant non-GAAP OPM recovery of 20.2% in FY18F (1Q and 2Q16: 0.2% and 4.1%).

Initiate with an Add rating and DCF-based target price of US$53.0.

Source: CIMB

https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/iJFGNBVS2Xq ... qGfBg2.pdf
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 24, 2016 12:44 pm

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Ctrip.com Soars On Q3 Beat, To Buy Skyscanner For $1.7B

By Shuli Ren

China’s largest online travel agency Ctrip.com (CTRP) soared 7% after reporting better-than-expected September earnings and guiding rosy outlook.

In September quarter, revenue at Ctrip jumped 75% from a year ago to 5.6 billion yuan, at the high end of the company’s guidance of 70-75% growth. The street had expected 73% growth rate.

Gross profit margin improved to 78% versus 72% a quarter ago and 73% a year ago, thanks to “synergies generated from the invested companies”, noted CICC.

Ctrip has played an active role consolidating in China’s crowded online travel space.

As a result of better top-line margin, non-GAAP profit margin came in at 18%, better than 14% seen by analysts.

Ctrip is not seeing any slowdown. It expects December quarter’s revenue to continue growing at 70-75%.

Ctrip also announced that it planned to buy Scotland-based travel search website Skyscanner for 1.4 billion pounds ($1.7 billion). Skyscanner has 60 million active users.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... -for-1-7b/
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:21 am

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Ctrip.com International Ltd

A blowout quarter

Ctrip reported non-GAAP NP of Rmb580.7m in 3Q16, 91% above our estimate and 64% above consensus. Key surprise was better than expected GPM expansion.

We believe that transportation growth re-acceleration should quell concerns, and see further upside for margin expansion.

We are positive on management’s announcement of Skyscanner acquisition.

We raise FY16-18F EPS forecasts by 2.0-25.5% due to higher margin forecasts.

We maintain our Add call with a higher DCF-based target price of US$53.80.

Source: CIMB

https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/tswdgnWt4nJ ... LjoIQ2.pdf
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:01 am

Delivering Synergies: This Analyst Now Says Buy Ctrip

By Shuli Ren

Ctrip reported better-than-expected September quarter earnings and said it agreed to pay 1.4 billion pounds ($1.7 billion) for UK-based travel search engine Skyscanner.

Skyscanner has 60 million active users, mostly from Europe. T

From HSBC:-

We find the valuation attractive, trading at 32/20x 2017/2018e on 87% EPS CAGR through 2016-19e.

Our DCF-based TP rises to USD53 from USD46, and implies 41/26x 2017/2018e PE.

Ctrip is down 12% ytd and 15% since late October. We view this as a buying opportunity.


Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... buy-ctrip/
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Re: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

Postby winston » Mon Dec 12, 2016 9:49 am

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Ctrip.com International Ltd (ADD, tp:US$53.80) - A big step towards fulfilling international ambitions

Ctrip acquired Skyscanner for US$1.7bn, mainly via cash, although a small number of shares may also be issued.

We are positive on the acquisition of Skyscanner as it is step towards Ctrip fulfilling its ambition of expanding internationally.

We expect the acquisition to generate incremental 6.2% revenue and 6.4% non-GAAP operating profit for Ctrip in FY17F.

Reiterate Add, with DCF-based target price of US$53.80.

Source: CIMB

https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/ynnNwHNxn_S ... pQCzA2.pdf
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