by millionairemind » Fri Oct 31, 2008 2:07 pm
UOB Q3 profit drops below forecast as crisis hurts
* Profit down as volatile markets hurt non-interest income
* Impairment on bad debt less than Q2
* Bank says vigilant on risks, crisis will hit real economy
SINGAPORE - Singapore's second-largest lender United Overseas Bank said quarterly profit fell a bigger-than-expected 5 per cent as volatile markets hurt non-interest income and warned the credit crisis will hit the real economy.
Singapore banks, which have so far averted a significant earnings' drop from the global credit crisis because of strong loan growth, are now facing slowing Asian economies.
The city-state itself fell into recession in the third quarter, the country's first economic contraction since 2002, and the central bank has warned growth will be below the potential 4-6 per cent in 2009, raising the spectre of more bad loans.
'We are mindful of the fast changing global banking landscape, the intense liquidity and credit squeeze in the global system,' Wee Ee Cheong, UOB's chief executive, said in a statement. 'The impact of de-leveraging and credit crunch will be increasingly evident in the real economy.'
UOB said on Friday July-September net profit fell to $475 million from $501 million a year ago. Analysts had predicted net profit of $500 million or a drop of 0.2 per cent from a year earlier, according to the average of four forecasts compiled by Reuters.
Singapore's biggest lender, DBS Group Holdings, will report its earnings on Nov 7 and third-ranked Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp on Nov 5.
Loans
Loan growth in the city-state has so far defied expectations because of demand for construction and infrastructure projects, but analysts have warned that the double-digit growth is likely to slow in the months ahead.
UOB, controlled by chairman Wee Cho Yaw and his family, is considered the leader in Singapore's loan market for small- and medium-sized businesses, and has benefited from demand for property and construction.
Net lending grew almost 18 per cent in the third quarter from a year ago, little changed from growth reported in the second quarter.
Net interest income rose 25.1 per cent to $893 million from a year earlier and was up 2.3 per cent from the previous quarter, while non-interest earnings, which include commissions and fees on investment products, fell 18.6 per cent from a year earlier to $319 million as global equity markets tumbled.
UOB posted impairment charges of $158 million in the third quarter, on non-performing loans and writedowns on structured products. The impairment was still below the $180 million taken in the second quarter.
Analysts have raised concerns about credit quality as a regional property boom ends and Asian economies slow.
'Over the last three years Singapore bank earnings have been inflated by above average loan growth, below average loan loss charges and buoyant investment markets,' said Morgan Stanley's Matthew Wilson in a note.
'As the credit cycle develops, we expect bank earnings to contract by around 10 per cent year-on-year - the street still expects growth of 6 per cent,' he said.
But Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Chang said Singapore banks may be in better shape than their regional peers because of higher underwriting standards after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis.
UOB shares fell 9.8 per cent in July-September, compared to an 11 per cent drop in shares of sector leader DBS and a 12.2 per cent decline in Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. -- REUTERS
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch
Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.