The Mrs. was beating herself up for selling too early at 8.40 yesterday
Venture Corporation
July 30 close: $9.19OCBC INVESTMENT RESEARCH, July 30
VENTURE Corp (VMS) will be reporting its Q2 2009 results on Aug 7 and after a very tough first quarter, VMS could likely provide a positive surprise in both its Q2 2009 revenue and bottomline, despite it being a traditionally slower quarter.
We note that the industry-wide inventory restocking activities have extended well into May, given the severe depletion in the supply chain in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009. In addition, we understand that VMS has continued to add new customers in its ODM (original design manufacturing) business. Hence we believe it should lead to further improvement in its profitability.
Another positive surprise could come from its CDO2 investment, which VMS had already almost fully marked down from the original $167.8 million to just $10.9 million as at end-Q1 2009.
We understand that the credit markets have thawed somewhat since then and we can expect potential write-backs from even as early as Q2 2009. However, we prefer to remain conservative and only adjust our numbers if/when it get its full investment back by end-December 2009. When it gets back the full amount, we believe that unless VMS has a pressing need for the funds, it could potentially pay it out as a special dividend that is worth at least $0.50 per share.
For the second quarter, we are expecting VMS to post a q-o-q improvement of 7.5 per cent in revenue and a jump of 14.7 per cent in net profit.
While we believe that the recession has bottomed, the road to recovery could still be a long and arduous one. As such, we will hold off adjusting our FY2009/2010 estimates until we see the Q2 results and get a better sense of its customers' outlook from management.
Meanwhile, the recent revaluation of the market has also led us to revise up our valuation for VMS, shifting from a very conservative FY2009 PER of 8 previously to a more upbeat blended FY2009/FY2010 PER of 12.5. This raises our fair value from $5.64 to $9.26. Coupled with an expected dividend yield of 5.8 per cent (not including a potential special dividend), we upgrade our rating from 'hold' to 'buy'.
BUY