Inter-Roller Engineering 1st Quarter 08 Results
Written By Net Research on 04 Jul 2008 Net Research Add comments (0) Contact Author
Inter-Roller Engineering Limited (IRL) reported yet another disappointing financial performance for 1Q08. After reporting a loss of $4.2m in 4Q07, net after-tax profit of $36,000 was positive for this quarter but fell short of our expectation of $3.1m by a substantial margin. Net after-tax profit for the previous corresponding 1Q07 was $4.7m. Revenue this quarter was down 49% as compared to 1Q07. The company attributed this to a delay in revenue recognition because major projects are still in its early stages or have been delayed.
Order book is still relatively strong at $125.7m with $34.6m worth of new orders secured in 1Q08. However, potential for further new orders in the next few quarters appears gloomy. The International Air Transportation Association (IATA) painted a dim and uncertain outlook for the airline industry at its 64th AGM and World Air Transport Summit at Istanbul held on 2nd June 2008. The IATA forecasted a loss of US$2.3b for the airline industry for 2008 based on a consensus oil price of US$106.5 per barrel, down from its previous forecast of US$4.5b profit. Rising fuel prices are forcing the airline industry into more losses. We feel that airlines may be less willing to spend on baggage handling and airport logistics systems in the near term. Furthermore, IRL noted that a number of tenders have been delayed.
High materials costs continue to pose a challenge, but IRL appears to be controlling this with gross profit margin of 42% in 1Q08 as compared to 36% in 1Q07. However we remain cautious on the impact of higher materials costs, in particular steel and copper.
We are revising our revenue forecasts for FY08 and FY09 downward to $138.9m and $112.5m respectively. Reasons for our revisions are due mainly to an expected decrease in new contracts we think IRL can secure and delays in existing projects. Forecast earnings are also lower, leading to a reduced DCF fair value of $0.304. We maintain our SELL recommendation.