InvestIdeas

JMH was up 4.6% today. Could not find any reason for it. Not vested.

Not vested. And it is up another 3.3% on no news...

Not vested. From JPM:-

Strong 1H08 expected for Jardine Matheson; pricing power in an inflationary environment
Price Target: $20.58
[email protected]
Billy Ng, CFA
(852) 2800-8597
[email protected]
Joanne Cheung
(852) 2800-8596
[email protected]

• We expect strong 1H08 results from Jardine Matheson (JM).

While some areas likely suffered from the global slowdown, we believe JM benefited from strong performances from the majority of its Asian consumer businesses. We visited with the company
before its closed period began.

• While 2H08 is likely to see some slowing of growth due to weakening sentiment, we believe many of JM’s businesses have significant pricing power in the current inflationary environment.
The less discretionary retailing operations, such as Dairy Farm’s supermarkets and hypermarkets, are expected to do well. More globally sensitive businesses, such as the Mandarin Oriental hotel
chain, face a more difficult outlook.

• Following its recent correction, we see JM as attractively valued. It is currently trading at only 10x FY09E earnings, and a 26% discount to “see-through” NAV. At current levels, most investors may prefer JM over its less liquid sister company, Jardine Strategic, whose NAV discount has narrowed to 34%.

• JPMorgan will host a post results luncheon for JM on 5 August.

From Phillips:-

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited showed strong progress throughout the Group in the first half of the
year, with Hong kong Land, Dairy Farm and Astra in particular producing good profit growth.

The Company’s underlying profit for the first six months of 2008 was US$448 million, up 40% over the same period in 2007.

Underlying earnings per share were 41% higher at US$1.27.

The turnover of the Group, including 100% of the turnover of associates and joint ventures, was US$18.5 billion, compared to US$14.9 billion in the first half of 2007. A further increase in investment property values during the period gave rise to a gain of US$551 million, compared with US$396 million in the first half of 2007, which has been taken through the profit and loss account.

It declared an interim dividend of US¢24.00 per share, an increase of 20%.

Not vested.

13th November 2008 – Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited has today issued an Interim Management Statement covering the period from 1st July to 12th November 2008 in accordance with the requirements of the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the Financial Services Authority of the United Kingdom.

During the period under review the deterioration in the global economic environment began to affect a number of the Group’s businesses, although others have yet to feel the impact. Jardine Pacific’s operations performed steadily, but Jardine Motors is facing a significantly weaker market in the United Kingdom. Jardine Lloyd Thompson’s earnings will benefit from the continuing improvement in its underlying businesses and from effective cost controls.

Hongkong Land is seeing reduced activity in the commercial property markets of Hong Kong and Singapore following a strong first half, and its residential development operations are facing harsher conditions. Dairy Farm’s major businesses, however, are still performing well and expansion is continuing. Mandarin Oriental’s hotels are experiencing lower occupancy, and certain of its development projects are expected to be delayed. After an exceptionally good first nine months of the year in Indonesia, falling commodity prices, the reaction of consumers to the general economic slowdown and a weakening Rupiah will have an impact on Astra’s contribution.

The earnings momentum in the first nine months of the year should ensure that the Group’s overall performance for 2008 will be satisfactory.

Jardine Matheson is a diversified business group focused principally on Asia. Its interests include Jardine Pacific, Jardine Motors, Jardine Lloyd Thompson, Hongkong Land, Dairy Farm, Mandarin Oriental, Jardine Cycle & Carriage and Astra. These companies are leaders in the fields of engineering and construction, transport services, insurance broking, property investment and development, retailing, restaurants, luxury hotels, motor vehicles and related activities, financial services, heavy equipment, mining and agribusiness.

DJ Jardine Matheson Target Cut To S$23.00 From S$36.61 By JPM

DJ MARKET TALK: Jardine Matheson Down 6.2%; JPM Cuts Target

0219 GMT [Dow Jones] Jardine Matheson (J36.SG) among biggest blue chip decliners, down 6.2% at US$16.00 with STI down 1.3%. JPMorgan cuts target to US$23.00 from US$36.61 to reflect downgrades to FY08, FY09 earnings forecasts of 10%, 33%, respectively, factoring in most recent earnings forecasts for Astra, HKLand, Mandarin Oriental, Jardine Lloyd Thompson, in which company holds stakes; but keeps Overweight call as says company's relatively low P/E, P/B imply low valuation risk.

"We believe JM is also attractive due to its conservative balance sheet and strong cash flows; it maintained positive free cash flow though FY98 and FY99, the worst years of the Asian Financial Crisis." Chart shows stock tends to be thinly traded with 100-day average volume of only 284,000; fairly large price swings not unusual, likely due to poor liquidity. Day's volume not particularly high at 124,000, suggests downside to be limited; support tipped at Dec. 5 low of US$15.20

From JPM:-

Conglomerate for all seasons JSH.SI, JS SP
Overweight
$9.08
Price Target: $12.50

• We are cutting our FY08/FY09 earnings forecasts for Jardine Matheson (JM) by 10%/33%. The cuts reflect the most recent J.P. Morgan forecasts for Astra and HKLand, and the most recent consensus forecasts
for Mandarin Oriental and Jardine Lloyd Thompson, which are not covered by J.P. Morgan. We have also cut our forecasts at unlisted operations Jardine Pacific and Jardine Motors.

• Our new Dec-09 price target for JM is $23 vs. our previous Jun-09 target of $36.61. $23 equates to 11x trailing FY09E earnings. Continued growth in FY09E earnings at Dairy Farm and HKLand should help offset declines at more cyclical businesses such as Astra. We realize that many investors are wary of earnings forecasts, so our target is also equal to our forecast for JM’s trough book value.

• We believe that JM’s relatively low P/E and price/book value imply low valuation risk. In addition, we believe JM is also attractive due to its conservative balance sheet and strong cash flows. Historically, JM has
had very strong cash flow; it maintained positive free cash flow though FY98 and FY99, the worst years of the Asian Financial Crisis.

• Our new Dec-09 price target for Jardine Strategic (JS) is $12.50 (previously Jun-09, $20.76). This is based on a 20% increase in JS’s NAV, and the NAV discount reverting back to its long-term average of 39%. This target implies 27% upside. The vast majority of JS’s NAV is in listed investments.

Jardine Matheson’s 2008 Profit Falls 64% on Property (Update2) By Chia-Peck Wong and Chen Shiyin

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd., which owns real estate, supermarkets and drugstores in Asia and runs hotels worldwide, said 2008 profit fell 64 percent on a decline in the value of its investment properties.

The Hong Kong-based company’s net income dropped to $666 million, or $1.89 per share, from $1.83 billion, or $5.16, the company said in a statement today. Sales climbed to $36.2 billion from $31.6 billion.

“While the prospects for our businesses remain sound in the year ahead, some are facing a greater impact than others from the deteriorating market conditions,” Chairman Henry Keswick said in the statement.

Jardine is contending with a dim outlook for office rents as companies fire workers to rein in costs. Demand for travel has also fallen amid the recession, resulting in a 38 percent drop in 2008 profit at luxury hotel operator Mandarin Oriental International Ltd., a Jardine unit.

Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd., another Jardine unit that’s one of the biggest office landlords in Hong Kong’s financial hub, yesterday said business had started to decline. It posted a loss of $109 million for 2008 after setting aside provisions for its Singapore residential developments. Excluding the provisions, underlying profit rose 8.7 percent to $375 million.

Record Underlying Profit

Jardine’s net income excluding the revaluation of real estate rose 14 percent to a record $822 billion, or $2.33 a share, from $719 million, or $2.03 a share as it benefited from higher rents negotiated in the first nine months of the year.

“Even though we are all seeing weaker trends, today we are renewing higher rents than three years ago,” Managing Director Anthony Nightingale said at a briefing today, referring to office leases in Singapore and Hong Kong, which are renegotiated once every three years.

Businesses involving daily essential items, such as supermarkets, and health and beauty operations, remain “resilient,” Nightingale said. Markets for autos and hotels would be the toughest, he said.

The company will pay a final dividend of 51 cents, compared with 45 cents in 2008.

Net debt excluding financial services companies declined 12 percent to $545 million from $618 million, Jardine said. The company has no “significant” refinancing needs in 2009, Nightingale said.

Jardine’s shares fell 0.6 percent to $16.70 in Singapore, before the earnings were released. The company is based in Hong Kong, listed in Singapore and London and incorporated in Singapore.

Time Last Volume Buy/Sell
17:05:01 24.000 36,000 X
16:59:57 19.996 14,000 X
16:59:31 19.860 1,200 Sell Down
16:58:26 19.860 1,200 Sell Down
16:58:15 19.880 2,000 Buy Up
16:57:58 19.860 2,000 Sell Down

The last lots after 17:00.