by 8percentpa » Tue Jul 15, 2008 12:27 pm
Hyflux is already damn bloody expensive where it is trading today.
Its revenue is a mere 180mn but its mkt cap is 1bn.
For normal co usually the mkt cap is equal to its revenue.
For the stock to be trading at $10 ie 4-5bn, its revenue has to grow 25x to 4-5bn.
That is why it will not trade at $10, unless the market goes wild and buy Hyflux without considering its fundamentals.
Why is Hyflux revenue so weak remains a mystery to me.
I suspect it has very little so-called core earnings (sustainable earnings after the construction is done)
So this means that it has to continuously win bids and built plants.
This is then a fundamentally very weak business model bcos how many plants can you build?
The world already has 13,000 desalination plants.
And competition will catch up.
Also Hyflux doesnt really own the membrane technology.
They just buy from some Japanese co.
If I were Olivia Lum, I will find some private banker and structure a deal to cash out at today's share price! Hehe.
I belong to a group of investors believing in obscure stuff like value-for-money, contrarian thinking, mean reversion etc. My blog at
http://8percentpa.blogspot.com