Hong Leong Asia

Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby winston » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:42 am

Not vested

RESEARCH ALERT-DMG lowers target price for Hong Leong Asia

SINGAPORE, Aug 16 (Reuters) - DMG & Partners has lowered its target price for Singapore consumer durables manufacturer Hong Leong Asia to S$4.88 from S$5.48, but kept its "buy" rating.

STATEMENT: DMG & Partners cut 2010 net profit estimate for Hong Leong by 14 percent to S$122 million, but it remains positive on long-term Chinese demand growth for consumer durables and diesel engines.

The revision came after the company warned that profitability in the second half of the year might be lower compared to the first half due to stiff competition in its heavy consumer durables products.

Shares of Hong Leong were down 1.1 percent to S$3.67 at 0106 GMT, but have risen 26.6 percent so far this year.


Source: Reuters
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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby winston » Mon Aug 16, 2010 7:51 pm

Looks like I can take this counter off my watchlist:-

Not vested. From CIMB:-

Hong Leong Asia - 2Q10 results - Headwinds ahead

We downgrade HLA to Underperform from Outperform. 2Q10 core net profit of S$32.2m (+25% yoy) accounts for 23% of our FY10 forecast (1H10 at 49%) and consensus.

The shortfall emanated from a weaker-than-expected Xinfei. Management also guided for further weakness in Yuchai's earnings in 2H10.

We thus cut our FY10-12 core EPS estimates by 18-20% on reduced assumptions for
Yuchai and Xinfei. We also defer an exceptional gain on the disposal of a plantation
by Tasek to FY11 from FY10 after management guided for the deal's closure in
FY11.

While we previously pegged Xinfei at 16x CY10 P/E, we now roll forward and value it at 10x CY11 P/E, at a wider 30% discount (previously 20%) to peers to account for its slower growth.

Accordingly, our sum-of-the-parts target price falls to S$3.21 from S$4.86. Management announced the termination of its strategic review of Xinfei. We downgrade HLA to Underperform as poorer earnings in coming quarters would likely weigh on its share price.
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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby Aspellian » Tue Aug 24, 2010 3:58 pm

wow--- so many downgrades.

on 20/20 hindsight, should have shorted when HL Asia announced that they are not selling Xinfei. Now the stock will overshoot the new (lower) target price of $3.21...

when it gets below $3 to $2.50, analysts will say good to buy, as counter is oversold. Then if it coincides with the next uptrend, i am to be ready! :lol:

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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby winston » Mon Nov 22, 2010 10:13 am

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RESEARCH ALERT-Phillip initiates Hong Leong Asia with "hold"

SINGAPORE, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Phillip Securities has initiated coverage of Hong Leong Asia , a conglomerate with several businesses in China, with a "hold" rating and price target of S$3.62.

STATEMENT: Phillip said Hong Leong Asia is a proxy to China's rising wealth and stands to benefit from the recovery of the global economy.

"Hong Leong Asia owns businesses that are market leaders in their respective industries: China Yuchai is the largest independent diesel engine manufacturer while Henan Xinfei is the second largest refrigerator manufacturer in China.

"Island Concrete has the second largest market share of ready-mix concrete in Singapore and Tasek is the fourth largest player in West Malaysia." The brokerage said China is increasing subsidies for rural households to buy appliances in its drive to narrow the urban-rural wealth gap and boost domestic consumption.

It added that Hong Leong Asia has exposure to the world's largest automobile market, with commercial vehicle sales in China likely to continue growing.

However, Phillip said the outlook for the firm's fourth quarter appears challenging due to additional marketing expenses, stiff competition, higher raw material costs and wages, as well as the dependence of demand for building materials on weather conditions.

At 0152 GMT, shares of Hong Leong Asia were down 0.9 percent at S$3.29 on a volume of 92,000 shares.


Source: Reuters
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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby winston » Sun Dec 12, 2010 7:38 pm

by mark8mah » Sun Dec 12, 2010 7:01 pm

Hi Winston
Thank you. May I ask, how do you do your After Action Review?
Let's say, I bought HL Asia mid year at $4.20. Now the price is $3.06.
HL Asia has much exposure in China investments. It has substantial building materials business in Singapore.
What would be your take if you conduct an After Action Review?
Much appreciated.



Hi Mark,

I dont follow this stock that closely anymore, so I cant really comment on the company.

If I'm doing an After Action Review ( AAR ), I would ask myself two questions:-
1) What did I do right on this trade and therefore would continue to do on the next trade ?
2) What did I do wrong and should try to improve on the next trade ?

In your case, maybe I would ask the following questions:-
1) Was there an exit strategy ?
2) If yes, was it a correct exit strategy eg. 7% Stop Loss, "Sell only when Fundamentals change", "Sell within one month", "Sell on some technical indicators turning negative" eg. crashing through a support etc
3) Did you followed your exit strategy ? If not, why not ?
4) Were your exposure to this stock within your objectives ? Or were your exposure too much ?

If my exit strategy was "sell when business fundamentals change", I would probably ask the following:-
1) Were the sale and profit of white goods within expectation ?
2) Were the sale and profit of diesel engines within expectation ?
3) Were the sale and profit of construction materials within expectation ?
Going forward, where do you see things heading ?

Or if I bought this counter on the hope of some M&A, did that materialize ?

I hoped that the above is useful.

Take care,
Winston
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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby mark8mah » Tue Dec 14, 2010 2:17 pm

Hi Winston
Thanks for the pointers. Vested small amount for interest sake.

It's 3Q2010 results look OK. Profit after tax increased by 60+% to $251.9 millions.

What intrigued me was the management. The CEO (former) was on the job since 01/10/2004. Beside managing these highly diversified business units in HL Asia, he was a Director in 61+ companies in the group? Out of which, 5 are listed entities.

How did he find the time to manage?

Just wondering...
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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby Aspellian » Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:31 pm

Hi Mark!

Welcome to the forum! Hope to see you post more often.

One key catalyst for HL Asia (previously) was the unlocking of value for XinFei either sale or IPO - but that didnt materialise. could be reason why share price rise to almost $5 and now back to $3.

Unless there are very strong catalyst, it is quite difficult to move large mid-caps like HLAsia which is a diversified conglomerate - eg. F&N group or Keppel Corp (for Keppel now its Land and Rigs are firing its share price up).

So HLasia price maybe sideways for quite some time (unlikely to retest its previous high) till the next catalyst come again, or if its growth is halted by the bubble burst in china.

my 1cent worth. ;)

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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby Aspellian » Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:00 pm

price dropped to 2.70 (recovered slightly)... even when there's no news. results coming out soon. something brewing? or just scaring the weak holder? :?

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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby winston » Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:14 am

Not vested

Meeting with management; estimate revisions
EPS: â–¼ TP: â–¼

● We have fine-tuned our model for HLA after meeting management for an operational update. 4Q10 was ahead, due to stronger heavy-duty engine sales at Yuchai. We expect demand growth to continue into FY11.

● Near term, the sales outlook for Xinfei should remain challenging, as it pushes into Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities amid rising competition.

We reduce our FY11-12 EPS forecasts by 16-22% on less optimistic price and margin assumptions, but believe risk is on the upside, as demand rises ahead of the expiry of China’s rural subsidy scheme in 2012.

● We understand that HLA has received a formal offer for its equity stake in the Karimun Island quarry, and could reap a gain, which we have not factored into our forecasts. Going forward, its building materials unit should be supported by firm construction sector
demand and higher cement prices.

● HLA trades at 9x P/E, versus other China white goods peers’ 15x, and diesel engine manufacturing peer Yuchai’s 10x. Our new SOTP-based target price is S$3.45 (down from S$4.35). We maintain our OUTPERFORM.

Source: Credit Suisse
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Re: Hong Leong Asia

Postby winston » Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:13 am

not vested

Hong Leong Asia cites CIMB reportas one likely reason for unusual trading activity

Source: The Edge

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/hong-l ... 8-87358173
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