CDL Hospitality Trust

CDL Hospitality Trust

Postby winston » Thu May 29, 2008 10:28 am

Not vested. From CIMB:-

CDL Hospitality Trust (S$2.01) - Initiating coverage - In an upswing CDLHT is the only hotel REIT in Singapore, and the largest Singapore hotel owner with 2,327 room keys.

Demand for hotel stay in Singapore over the next eight years is expected to rise, boosted by the government's tourism targets of S$30bn tourist receipts and 17m visitors by 2015.

Although new hotel rooms in 2008-10 are expected to add 37% to the current room stock, we expect CDLHT’s portfolio to remain resilient.

We forecast a 3-year DPU CAGR of 8.2% for 2008-10.

Our target price is S$2.38, based on DDM valuation (discount rate 8.5%). Initiate coverage
with Outperform.
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Re: CDL Hospitality Trust

Postby winston » Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:57 am

From UOB-Kay Hian:-

Singapore Hotel Segment

Asian tourist arrivals seem resilient despite volatile environments.

Major Asian economies - including China, Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia - posted strong tourist arrival figures in Apr 08, except Malaysia due to its recent political turmoil.

Singapore welcomed record numbers of tourist arrivals in Jan-Apr 08.

Is an industry shock on the way?
Severe tourism sector shocks in Singapore during the past 10 years were mainly caused by economic crises generated from within (1997 Asian financial crisis), or events leading to
travel safety concerns (911 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the outbreak of SARS in 2003).
In fact, tourist arrivals quickly picked up after these shocks.

Despite the current uncertainties in Vietnam, Asian economies are stronger than in 1997, with most posting positive trade balances. Also, we do not see risks threatening travel safety at this
juncture.

Hotel room shortage supportive of hotel yields. We expect the number of hotel rooms in Singapore to increase about 3% in 2008, lagging behind the expected 5% full-year visitor arrival growth rate. The hotel room crunch could persist into 2009 until the major supply comes on stream in 2010. This lends support to continuous rate improvements and consequently hotel yields.

We will still BUY CDL Hospitality Trusts (Target Price: S$ 2.40) for its pure Singapore exposure. It is trading at FY08 DPU yield at 5.6%.
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CDL Hospitality Trust - Is this a pattern?

Postby ishak » Mon Jul 28, 2008 4:50 pm

16:42:56 1.5 10000
16:37:17 1.5 4000
16:36:33 1.5 120000

16:35:56 1.49 1000
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16:27:06 1.5 70000
16:25:55 1.49 1000
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16:23:56 1.49 1000

16:00:06 1.5 66000
15:59:01 1.49 1000
15:58:52 1.49 1000
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15:55:49 1.49 1000
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15:43:29 1.5 5000
15:29:52 1.5 26000
15:29:43 1.5 8000

15:29:05 1.49 1000
15:28:05 1.49 1000

15:27:02 1.5 15000
15:26:38 1.5 30000
15:26:19 1.5 10000
15:26:05 1.5 11000
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CDL Hospitality Trust - Half Year Report 1H08

Postby ishak » Wed Jul 30, 2008 5:41 pm

CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS REPORTS RECORD DISTRIBUTIONS PER UNIT OF 5.89 CENTS FOR 1H 2008, UP 52.6% OVER 1H 2007

• CDL Hospitality Trusts (“CDLHT”) Singapore hotels continue to deliver strong year-on-year (“YoY”) Revenue Per Available Room (“RevPAR”) growth of 30.6% for 2Q 2008 and 34.4% for 1H 2008 against Pro Forma 2007

• Visitor arrivals for 1H 2008 totaled 5.1 million, representing an increase of 2.9% over the same period last year.

• CDL-HT have now demonstrated 8 consecutive quarters of quarter on quarter and year on year RevPAR growth

• Strong 2Q 2008 performance by CDL-HT vs. 2Q 2007
    - Gross revenue of $29.5 million - up 42%
    - Net property income of $27.7 million - up 42%
    - Distributable income per unit of 3.03 cents - up 44%
• Overall, strong 1H 2008 performance by CDL-HT vs. 1H 2007
    - Gross revenue of $57.4 million - up 48%
    - Net property income of $53.8 million - up 48%
    - Distributable income per unit of 5.89 cents - up 53%
• Distribution per unit of 5.89 cents, up 52.6% for 1H 2008, and representing an annualised distribution yield per unit of 8.17% (based on price of $1.45)

Mr Vincent Yeo, CEO of M&C REIT Management Limited, the Manager of H-REIT, said, “Our hotels have performed well in the last two quarters by exhibiting strong room rate growth with a slight increase in occupancies. Although Singapore has not been spared from a slowdown in travel caused by an uncertain global economic environment and higher travel costs due to oil price increases, business volumes remain healthy.”


Review of Hotels Performance
CDLHT delivered outstanding RevPAR growth with its Singapore hotels increasing RevPAR by 30.6% for 2Q 2008 and 34.4% for 1H 2008 against Pro Forma 2Q 2007 and 1H 2007 respectively.
In 2Q 2008, the Orchard Hotel Shopping Arcade contributed net property income of S$0.8 million, up 17.1% YoY. Occupancy increased from 92.0% in 2Q 2007 to 93.7% in 2Q 2008 with an average monthly rental rate of approximately S$7.16 per sq. ft. In 1H 2008, the Orchard Hotel Shopping Arcade achieved net property income of S$1.6 million, representing an 18.8% year-on-year increase. Occupancy increased from 92.2% in 1H 2007 to 94.4% in 1H 2008 with an average monthly rental rate of approximately S$7.02 per sq. ft.

Overall positive growth expected for FY2008
The Singapore tourism industry registered growth for the months of April and May 2008 with visitor arrivals of 1.65 million, representing growth of 0.8% compared to the same period last year. However, June 2008 saw only 816,000 visitors which represented a 4.1% decline in visitor arrivals over June 2007. For the period January to June 2008, visitor arrivals were 5.1 million representing growth of 2.9% over the same period last year.

Mr Yeo said, “Following over four years of constant growth, we are now seeing a leveling off in Singapore’s visitor arrivals. However, it is noteworthy that the drop in June’s arrival figure is mitigated by the increase in the average length of stay per visitor. Despite economic uncertainty, we are pleased to be able to report a high occupancy rate of 87% in the second quarter. We expect further growth in the third quarter compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

Mr Yeo added, “This business climate also represents opportunities for us as we are seeing more and more assets being offered for sale. With our low levels of gearing and strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to capitalize on attractive acquisition opportunities as they arise.”

MISC
NAV: $1.61 (Previous $1.58)
Gearing: 20.3% (Previous 19.5%)
Distribution rate: 5.89 cents per unit (5.37¢ of taxable income and 0.52¢ of tax exempt income)
Book closure date: 5.00 pm on 7 August 2008
Date payable: 29 August 2008
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CDL Hospitality Trust - Analyst - Daiwa

Postby ishak » Wed Jul 30, 2008 9:37 pm

From todayonline.com 30 July 2008
$1.45 | Sell

Daiwa downgrades the trusts from "outperform" and cuts price target to $1.24 from $2.07, pegged to the sectoral average discount from net asset value of 22 percent. It notes that Singapore Tourism Board data shows a drop in visitor arrivals last month and says that "the party is over for hotels". It cuts the dividend per stapled security forecast by 15 to 18 per cent to relfect its assumption of lower revenue per available room.
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CDL Hospitality Trust

Postby ishak » Thu Jul 31, 2008 8:37 am

CDL Hospitality Trusts eyes Japan acquisitions
It's considering sprucing up Orchard arcade or turning it into hotel rooms
Singapore Business Times
Published July 31, 2008 By KALPANA RASHIWALA

CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT), the biggest hotel owner in Singapore, is looking at the Japan market with 'great interest' for potential acquisitions as it now offers 'pricing levels not seen for many years'.

CDLHT, a stapled group comprising CDL Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust (H-Reit) and CDL Hospitality Business Trust (HBT), is also mulling whether to spruce up Orchard Hotel Shopping Arcade or convert it into hotel rooms.

If converted, the 53,000 sq ft facility could yield about 78 hotel rooms, which would add to Orchard Hotel's existing 653 rooms.

'We're are still doing studies and to some extent waiting for construction costs to reach more reasonable levels,' Vincent Yeo, CEO of M&C Reit Management, said yesterday in an interview with BT. M&C Reit Management is the manager of H-Reit.

CDLHT yesterday posted a 68.7 per cent jump in second-quarter distributable income to $25 million. For the first half ended June 30, 2008, distributable income jumped 79 per cent to $48.6 million, on the back of organic growth across the portfolio as well as a full period's contribution from Novotel Clarke Quay, which was acquired on June 7, 2007.

'I like the acquisition environment today much better than what we have experienced in the last couple of years. Because of the tight credit conditions today, there are more motivated sellers and there are more deals that we're seeing now, and consequently this means that we can be a lot more selective in terms of location and strategic assets,' Mr Yeo added.

'Japan has also gone through a very adverse credit situation and there are a lot of deals. Assets as recently as last year used to trade at 4 per cent yield. We're now seeing them gravitate above 6 per cent,' he said.

CDLHT's gearing level as at June 30, 2008, stood at 20.3 per cent.

Despite softness in Singapore visitor arrivals in June, CDLHT's Singapore hotels posted average occupancy rate of 87.1 per cent in Q2 ended June 30, 2008, up 1.1 percentage points from 86 per cent for proforma Q2 2007 (assuming Novotel Clarke Quay had been acquired on April 1, 2007).

Revenue per available room increased 30.6 per cent year-on-year to $222 in Q2 2008. Mr Yeo noted that the dip in Singapore's visitor arrivals in June was mitigated by the increase in the average length of stay per visitor.

CDLHT's hotel portfolio comprises Orchard Hotel, Grand Copthorne Waterfront, M Hotel, Copthorne King's Hotel and Novotel Clarke Quay in Singapore, and the Rendezvous Hotel Auckland in New Zealand.

CDLHT posted a 42.4 per cent year-on-year jump in Q2 gross revenue to $29.5 million. For the first-half, gross revenue increased 48.3 per cent to $57.4 million.

Unitholders will receive a total distribution per unit of 5.89 cents for the first half comprising 5.37 cents of taxable income and 0.52 cent of tax-exempt. The total payout works out to an annualised figure of 11.84 cents, reflecting an 8.2 per cent annualised distribution yield based on CDLHT's closing price of $1.45 yesterday. The counter ended one cent lower from the Tuesday close.

CDLHT's net asset value per stapled security stood at $1.61 as at June 30, unchanged from the Dec 31, 2007 figure.

'While we are cautious over the outlook for the remainder of 2008 due to the weakness demonstrated in visitor arrivals in the month of June, we still expect to register growth for the next reporting period.

'We believe that the general outlook for the hotel industry continues to be positive over the medium and long term,' CDLHT said.
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CDL Hospitality Trust - Analyst - DBS

Postby ishak » Thu Jul 31, 2008 1:24 pm

BUY S$1.44 STI : 2,925.50
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.02 (Prev S$ 2.90)
Reason for Report : 2Q Results
Potential Catalyst: Strong RevPAR growth

Outstanding RevPAR growth
Story: CDL HT reported a strong 2Q08 performance of a 42.4% and 41.7% growth in gross revenues and NPI to $29.5m and $27.7m respectively. Distributable income grew 68.7% to S$25m, translating to a DPU of 3.03 cts for the quarter. Together with 1Q08, unitholders are getting a DPU of 5.89 cts, which works out to an annualized yield of 8.18%.

Point: Main driver for a strong overall performance was largely organic with their hotel portfolio registering growth in excess of 12% yoy. Singapore hotels outperformed, registering revenue growth in excess of 20%, with a full quarter contribution from Novotel Clarke Quay. RevPAR was impressive; its Singapore hotels grew c30% yoy to $222 while occupancies remained high at 87.1% for the quarter. Average daily rate for its Singapore hotels was $255, which exceeded our full year forecast of $240. While management expects 2H08 to remain stable with RevPar growth moderating due to a higher base, in our estimates, we have chosen to be conservative in our RevPAR assumptions taking into account; (i) potential slowdown in tourists growth on the back of inflationary factors, (ii) Olympics fever in Beijing diverting away tourist attention. Therefore, we adjust forward RevPAR growth in FY08 to 25% and 8% in FY09, keeping occupancies stable at 85%.

Relevance: Maintain BUY, TP is reduced to S$2.02 from S$2.90. Our DCF valuation incorporates a higher risk free rate of 3.9% and lower terminal growth of 1.5%. CDL HT is currently trading at 0.9x P/BV and offers investors a 7.9% and 8.4% FY08-FY09 DPU yield.
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CDL Hospitality Trust - Analyst - CIMB

Postby ishak » Thu Jul 31, 2008 1:29 pm

• In line. 2Q08 results were in line with Street and our expectations. DPU of 3.03cts forms 28% of our full-year forecast of 10.9cts. Gross revenue of S$29.5m surged 42.4% yoy, led by full contributions from Novotel Clark Quay and outstanding growth in revenue per available room (REVPAR). 1H08 DPU of 5.89cts was in line with our expectations, at 54% of our full-year estimate.

• Outstanding REVPAR, contrary to official statistics. CDLHT’s Singapore hotel REVPAR of S$222 in 2Q08 was up 30.6% yoy. This was attributed to a 29.4% surge in average daily rates to S$255 and a 1.1%-pt growth in average occupancy rates to 87.1%. The growth in occupancy defied STB’s recent statistics showing a 3.4%-pt drop in average occupancy rates for Singapore hotels to 83%.

• REVPAR to moderate in 2H08; acquisitions difficult. Following two months of negative newsflow on the Singapore hospitality sector, CDLHT’s share price had fallen some 28% from its last high of S$2.01. While rising inflation, an appreciating S$ and slowing visitor arrivals are valid concerns, we believe REVPAR growth will slow but not collapse in 2H08 as: 1) Singapore’s hotel supply remains tight till 2010; 2) rising construction costs will benefit existing hotels; and 3) CDLHT’s well-located mid-tier hotels have room for upside in relation to 5-star hotels. Nonetheless, its sharply depressed share price has pushed up trading yields to about 7.8%, which far exceeds our assumption of a 5.6% net property yield (for Singapore assets), making acquisitions in the near future difficult.

• Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform with lower target price of S$1.78 (from S$2.38). In view of CDLHT’s strong REVPAR performance, we have raised our FY08 occupancy assumption for its Singapore portfolio to 86% (from 84%), and average room rate growth assumption to 38% (from 33%). However, we now assume no new acquisitions for FY08. Overall, we raise our FY08 DPU estimate by 3.2% but cut our FY09-10 estimates by 8-9%. Our DDM-based target price (discount rate 8.5%) correspondingly drops to S$1.78 (from S$2.38).
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Re: CDL Hospitality Trust

Postby winston » Fri Mar 27, 2009 2:44 pm

From CIMB:-

CDL Hospitality Trust (S$0.52) - Safe enough

Visitor arrivals in Feb 09 declined of 15.3% yoy, the steepest decline since Jun 08. Average occupancy rate for hotels at 76% declined 3.3-percentage points from Feb 08. Despite the weak outlook for the sector, the fixed component in CDLHT's lease structure offers a minimum yield of 6.6% even if the variable component becomes zero.

At the current P/BV of 0.38x, we believe CDLHT remains cheap, despite the brief price rally over the last two weeks. The floor on yield downside justifies CDLHT's premium over Ascott Residence Trust at 0.29x P/BV, and the office REIT sector at 0.26x. We upgrade our recommendation to Outperform based on its relative upside (+32%) to our STI target of 1800 (2%).

We maintain our estimates and target price of S$0.68, still based on DDM valuation. Our unchanged estimates imply forward dividend yields of 16.1%.
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Re: CDL Hospitality Trust

Postby Blackjack » Fri Mar 27, 2009 6:27 pm

Is it my imagination or not that I seem to notice CIMB and DBS always releasing similar calls on the same day? Copy homework ah?
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