Dairy Farm

Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Sat Mar 16, 2013 6:00 am

not vested

Time: 4:55PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: DairyFarm 900 US$(D01)
Signal: Support - Broken with High Volume
Last Done: $12


Source: UOBKH
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:40 am

not vested

Time: 5:04PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: DairyFarm 900 US$(D01)
Signal: Support - Broken with High Volume
Last Done: $12

Source: UOBKH
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:39 pm

not vested

Time: 1:04PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: DairyFarm 900 US$(D01)
Signal: Support - Broken with High Volume
Last Done: $11.85

Source: UOBKH
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:57 pm

not vested

Time: 1:34PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: DairyFarm 900 US$(D01)
Signal: Support - Broken with High Volume
Last Done: $11.74

Source: UOBKH
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:19 pm

not vested

Time: 8:58AM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: DairyFarm 900 US$(D01)
Signal: Bullish MACD Crossover
Last Done: $12.3


Source: UOBKH
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Posts: 118528
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Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Mon Apr 01, 2013 9:34 pm

not vested

Time: 4:44PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: DairyFarm 900 US$(D01)
Signal: Bearish MACD Crossover
Last Done: $11.85

source: UOBKH
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
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Posts: 118528
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Wed Apr 24, 2013 8:01 pm

not vested

Time: 1:11PM
Exchange: SGX
Stock: DairyFarm 900 US$(D01)
Signal: Bullish MACD Centerline Crossover
Last Done: $12.3


Source: UOBKH
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston
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Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:23 pm

Dairy Farm: BUY (Initiating Coverage); US$10.11; DFI SP
Direct proxy to Asia's growth
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 11.60

• Beneficiary of rising middle class population and food consumption in Asia
• Stock offers defensive earnings and sound financials
• Trading at undemanding valuations, recent selldown provides entry opportunity
• Initiating coverage with BUY, US$11.60 TP

Direct proxy to consumption growth in Asia. Dairy Farm (DFI) is a leading pan Asian retailer, operating over 5,600 supermarkets, hypermarkets, health and beauty stores, convenience stores, home furnishing stores. DFI offers exposure to rising Asian consumption as its retail operations are diversified across Asian markets, with different store formats targeting various consumer segments.

Defensive earnings, sound financials. We like DFI for its defensive earnings, strong net cash generation. DFI has paid out >50% of its earnings over the last 5 years at least. Net cash of US$420m as of 1H13 also provides warchest to pursue inorganic growth opportunities.

Recent share price weakness provides an entry opportunity. We see a window of opportunity to accumulate on this counter. DFI has corrected by c.23% from May’13, more than STI Index. Valuation is attractive at 25.5x FY14F PE, below its last three years’ average valuations.

Initiate with Buy, TP US$11.60. We forecast DFI’s revenue and earnings CAGR to be 7% and 8%, respectively for the next 3 years, driven by new store openings and 3% SSSG. Our DCF based TP of US$11.60 TP implies a reasonable 29x FY14F PE, below DFI’s recent valuations of +1 SD and 31x forward PE since January 2012. We initiate coverage of DFI with a Buy recommendation.

Source: DBS
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:00 pm

Dairy Farm Int
Window of opportunity

DFI SP / DAIR.SI | OUTPERFORM - Upgrade | US$10.33 - TP: US$11.90
Mkt.Cap: US$13,967.00m | Avg.Daily Vol: US$1.71m | Free Float: 22.00%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Inspired by Dairy Farm’s mass-market banner Giant’s “Dare to compare” promotional campaign that urges consumers to discover which chain sells the cheapest products, we found that the stock is trading cheaply on historical and index bases.

We upgrade Dairy Farm to Outperform from Neutral, following its recent share price weakness. We reduce our FY14-15 EPS by 1-3% for lower margins. Our residual income-based target price drops by 3% accordingly. We believe that its earnings have reached trough, which should support Dairy Farm’s share price. Additional catalysts could come from easing conditions in Malaysia and improvement in Mannings China.


Historically cheap, even after cuts in FY14-15 earnings

Following the 1H13 earnings disappointment (5% yoy drop in net profit), Dairy Farm’s share price has fallen by 13%, contracting by 21% from its May high. It is trading at 24x FY14 P/E, which is just 9% above its 5-year mean and the lowest in two years.

This is despite our cumulative 10% cut YTD in FY13-15 EPS due to the lower margins as a result of competitive headwinds and the rupiah weakness. We believe that earnings downgrade momentum will taper from now on.


Fighting back

Admittedly, the group is not firing on all cylinders but we still expect 12.9% earnings CAGR in 2012-2015 on the back of its initiatives to regain its market positions in Malaysia (price competition and the introduction of the mini mart format) and Singapore (rebranding of Shop N Save as Giant to increase brand equity).

Its Hong Kong home ground remains dominant while its health and beauty franchise continues to post strong growth. Its presence in Indonesia is growing rapidly but that has not translated into US$, Dairy Farm‟s reporting currency.

Share price to bottom out?

The stock’s disproportionate fall vs. the MSCI APxJ Consumer Staples Index (dropped 3% since the May high) suggests scope for tactical switch trades and that Dairy Farm’s share price has bottomed out.

We see a window of opportunity to accumulate this blue chip stock, which offers investors: 1) unique exposure to the pan-Asian consumer, 2) market leadership, 3) size and scalability, and 4) phenomenal ROE track record (average FY13-15 ROE of c.40%).


Source: CIMB
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Dairy Farm

Postby winston » Fri Jan 17, 2014 7:23 am

not vested

Dairy Farm Int'l - Pan-Asian retail franchise at break-up value?

Dairy Farm’s share price has tumbled 17% since it guided that its 10M13 earnings would be lower yoy. We do not deem the comparison like-for-like as 10M12 did not include a reversal of supplier income.

On a full-year basis and adjusting for such supplier income, we estimate that FY13 earnings would be 10% higher yoy, which should catalyse its share price.

Compelling valuations – we calculate that the group is trading at its break-up value – lend support to our unchanged Add rating, although we trim our FY13-15 EPS for lower sales.

Our target price, based on residual income, is also intact.

Source: CIMB

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/res ... ybreak.pdf
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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