not vested
This property giant could be the blue-chip stock you need
By Jude Chan
SINGAPORE (Dec 2): CapitaLand’s effort to boost its recurring earnings and cash flow is paying off, and its shares look attractive. Is this the blue-chip property stock to own?
What is likely to draw investors is the progress CapitaLand is making in its plan to accelerate cash generation from its assets in China and Singapore, and boost its return on equity (ROE).
More than anything else, that could widen the distance between itself and its peers, and turn it into the preeminent play on Asian real estate.
CapitaLand has an equity base of $24 billion, which is already significantly higher than Global Logistic Properties at US$13.4 billion and City Developments at $11.1 billion.
Meanwhile in Vietnam, CapitaLand is building a presence that is similar to what it has in China as well as Singapore.
It has deftly used a stable of property funds and trusts to finance and hold its development projects, and companies specialising in different fields to manage different types of commercial properties.
Derrick Heng, an analyst at Maybank Kim Eng Research, says CapitaLand’s earnings for the nine months to Sept 30 met 79% of his full-year estimate.
According to him, the group has unbilled home sales in China of RMB14.8 billion. “Recognition of 40% of these in 4QFY2016 provides sales visibility of $1.1 billion,” Heng says in a recent report.
He forecasts earnings of $966 million for this year, which is 9.2% lower than its earnings in 2015.
Analysts are expecting much stronger earnings in 2017, fuelled partly by stronger income from development projects as well as fair-value gains from the completion of the Raffles City projects in China.
Against this background, Heng forecasts a 65% jump in earnings next year to $1.6 million.
Heng figures that could put CapitaLand in a position to pay out higher dividends. “This could bump up its appeal as a recurring-income and dividend stock. Holding less cash would also reduce the drag on its ROE,” he says.
Last year, CapitaLand paid out nine cents a share in total, a yield of 2.9% based on its current share price.
Maybank Kim Eng has a revalued NAV estimate of $5.13 a share for CapitaLand.
The research house has a “buy” recommendation on the stock, with a price target of $4.06, which is a 21% discount to its RNAV.
CapitaLand closed 1 cent lower at $3.07.
Source: The Edge
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