City Developments 01 (May 09 - Oct 16)

[LenaHuat]

I like iam802's analysis of $11 better . This ticker will then swing above $13 soon thereafter.

[iam802]

Looks like a bullish rebound may not happen in the short term.

The kumo (highlighted by the red region shows massive resistance.

Support levels (identified by the Chikou Span; red circles) :
- 12.19
- 11.89
- 11.56
- 10.94

I would wait for it to form a base before going long.

2010Nov-CITYDEV-800x600.png

[profittaker]

Thanks 802. Another note is on weekly chart cloud support at 10.92.

[LenaHuat]

ThankQQ iam802 and profittaker for the discussion
Yes, I too think it's best not to pick this ticker up too soon. It's been bouncing pretty nicely because of the disposal of non-core assets. But are there still deals in the offing that would produce the bounces? I don't have the answer but I can guess the answer ; "No".

[LenaHuat]

CDL secured a bid for a EC piece of land at Bukit Panjang. This is CDL's 4th EC. More interestingly, the second highest bid came from a joint bid by Fraser and LumChang. Will Singapore's middle class continue to have its bell curve characteristic whilst several Asian societies, like Taiwan and HK, is already "M"-shaped societies?

[winston]

Not vested

Up 4% on no news...

I think it's Window Dressing and I can probably guess which fund company. They have a habit of window dressing just before the close of every quarter.

Let's see whether there's any announcement on the SGX website over the next few weeks

And every quarter, I have been reminding myself to play together with them and every quarter, I forget

[LenaHuat]

ThankQQ iam802 and profittaker for the discussion
Yes, I too think it's best not to pick this ticker up too soon. It's been bouncing pretty nicely because of the disposal of non-core assets. But are there still deals in the offing that would produce the bounces? I don't have the answer but I can guess the answer ; "No".

Looking at today's price action, I think I am off the mark.

[profittaker]

ThankQQ iam802 and profittaker for the discussion
Yes, I too think it's best not to pick this ticker up too soon. It's been bouncing pretty nicely because of the disposal of non-core assets. But are there still deals in the offing that would produce the bounces? I don't have the answer but I can guess the answer ; "No".

Looking at today's price action, I think I am off the mark.

Hi Lena, for me, bull and bear still fighting in my head, need more time.

[LenaHuat]

Hi profittaker
ThankQ for your post. Well, RobinsonSuites sold like hot cakes and I wonder if CDL has plans to redevelop their old landbank like The Arcade and its corporate HQ. Looks like there could be some good bounces

[winston]

Not vested. From OCBC:-

City Developments Ltd: Valuation is key

Summary: City Developments Ltd (CDL)’s recent launches have done well and it is looking to launch its 521-unit condominium project at Sengkang/Fernvale early next year.

CDL has taken advantage of strong capital values and appetite for acquisitions to divest ~S$910m worth of assets over 2010. We view these developments positively and expect to see further divestments in 2011.

With sustained conditions of high liquidity and cheap debt, we believe it is very likely that policymakers will implement further measures to regulate the residential market in 1H2011.

We prefer developers with strong balance sheets and those with balanced exposure to the property sector, which should buttress earnings and performance in a year of fairly high uncertainty for residential property.

While CDL checks these boxes, we still do not find valuations attractive at the current price level. Maintain HOLD with unchanged S$12.35 fair value (pegged at RNAV); we would consider re-entering around S$11.23. (Meenal Kumar)