CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (Merger CMT & CCT)

[iam802]

(1) 2008 Third Quarter Unaudited Financial Statements And Distribution Announcement (2) News Release - CMT Achieves 7.3% Higher Third Quarter 2008 Distribution per Unit

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/ef3b ... enDocument


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Overall, the announcement focus on how they did very well, the amount to be distributed.

However, I am interested more on the forward looking statement quoted below:

Despite the short term uncertainties, Singapore’s retail market is well supported by long term
fundamentals. Singapore Tourism Board (STB) targets to increase visitor arrivals from 10 million in 2007 to 17 million in 2015.

The opening of both Singapore’s integrated resorts and hosting of the Youth Olympics in 2010 will bring positive benefits to the retail market. At the same time, the ongoing rejuvenation of Orchard Road will enhance Singapore’s position as one of the choice shopping destinations. Long term growth in local consumption will also drive growth in the retail market. The latest mid-year estimates by Singapore Department of Statistics shows that total population has reached 4.84 million, with a record growth of 5.5% in 2008. With the government planning towards a 6.5 million population, we believe that population growth will contribute to growth of local consumption.

As such, in the medium to long term, the retail market will continue to be supported by the growth in tourism industry and population.

1. The first thing that comes to mind is "Didn't STB miss their target this year?"

2. How big is the Youth Olympics really? Is spending going to be that much? eg. Did F1 really bring so much benefits to all the retailers?

3. If we are in a pro-longed recession lasting 2-3 years, consumer spending is down, will retail rental still commands a premium?

Just TOL..

[mojo_]

802,

Take a look at the slide set for 3Q results: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_2D015DED73AEE6DB482574E80050C1E7/$file/Final_CMT_3Q08_Results_Presentation_Slides.pdf?openelement.

Slide #36 shows the rentals from '93 to now. Suburban mall rentals are very resilient even during GDP contractions as they sell mainly non-discretionary goods and services. Orchard Rd shopping malls are more vulnerable dipping during the Asian financial crisis. CMT's malls are mostly suburban and it's downtown ones (eg. Plaza Sgp, Funan, Bugis Junction) focus mainly on neccessities catering to local population who live around there.

You can also watch the webcast of their presentation and Q&A with press and analysts this morning at their website. Some interesting info arose during the Q&A. Hope more companies do webcasting so retail investors can access key info at same time as others do.

[millionairemind]

October 29, 2008, 10.11 am (Singapore time)

CRCT reports Q3 DPU of 2.01 cts
By WONG WEI KONG

SINGAPORE - CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT) has achieved a distributable income of $12.4 million for the third quarter of 2008, manager CapitaRetail China Trust Management (CRCTML) said on Wednesday.

This is an increase of $1.2 million or 10.5 per cent over the forecast distributable income of $11.3 million for Q3 2008.

Distribution per unit for the quarter is 2.01 cents (8.01 cents on an annualised basis), which is 10.5 per cent higher than the forecast DPU of 1.82 cents (7.25 cents on an annualised basis).

The distributable income of $12.4 million is approximately 96.9 per cent of CRCT's total income available for distribution of $12.8 million.

'CRCT remains committed to distribute 100 per cent of its income available for distribution to unitholders for the full financial year ending Dec 31 2008,' the manager said.

[winston]

I would be very surprised if they're affected by any refinancing issue. Unfortunately, the market is very weak and does not like uncertainty..

Singapore Hot Stocks-CapitaCommercial drops on refinancing woes

SINGAPORE, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Shares of CapitaCommercial Trust fell as much as 10.7 percent on Monday after the property firm said it was pursing its refinancing needs with several financial institutions. [ID:nSNBL31630]

CapitaCommercial was responding to a report from Reuters on Friday that it verbally mandated four banks to handle a S$580 million (S$379 million) three-year bullet refinancing.

"If the loans are not confirmed then the market will be a bit jittery and there could be some concern since it's not finalised yet," said a dealer from a Singapore brokerage firm.

By 0608 GMT, shares of CapitaCommercial were down 7.55 percent at S$0.735. Property firms were also weaker, with CapitaLand down 2.3 percent and City Developments down 3 percent.

[winston]

From CIMB:-

• Doomsday scenario: office rents fall to S$2.40psf. We stress-test our model for CCT assuming that average prime office rents in the market will fall by 60% over 2009-10, reaching S$2.40psf in 2010, or 40% below the S$4psf in the last trough. This would drive DPU declines of 5% in 2009 and 27% in 2010. Our target price also falls about 30% from S$1.17 to S$0.81.

• Buffer for CCT. Although the negative macro environment and large impending new supply bode ill for office rents and occupancy levels, we believe that any negative impact on CCT would be mitigated by:-
1) low portfolio average rents of S$7psf/month vs. the market average of S$16psf/month;
2) long weighted average lease terms to expiry of 6.7 years for its top 10 tenants, more than twice the typical commercial lease term of three years;
3) rental caps and long lease options for its GLC tenants (in Capital Tower and Raffles City); and
4) 5-year income support for One George Street by CapitaLand.

• Maintain Outperform with lower target price of S$1.08 (from S$1.17), still based on DDM. We refine our assumptions, now assuming flat average portfolio rents vs. our earlier assumption of 1.3% growth from 2009. Our DPU estimates have been trimmed by 1.4-2.7% for FY09-10. Despite its recent price rally, CCT remains
the cheapest REIT under our coverage at 0.29x P/NAV with forward yields of 12%.

[mocca_com]

i believe this will be the talk of the day.. wahaha.. suddenly 1 block of 2000lots of $3.00 for capital mall...

C38U (CapitaMall)


DAY HIGH : 3.000 NET CHANGE : 1.400 TOTAL VALUE : 7,827,580
DAY LOW : 1.590 LAST DONE : 3.000 VOLUME : 3,135
Time Last Vol Buy/Sell
17:05:01 3.000 2,000 B
16:59:52 1.610 14 B
16:59:32 1.610 4 B
16:59:22 1.610 2 S
16:59:20 1.600 4 B
16:59:12 1.610 2 B
16:58:48 1.600 4 B
16:58:40 1.611 20 X
16:58:40 1.600 4 B
16:58:32 1.600 4 B
16:58:24 1.610 1 B
16:57:54 1.610 12 B
16:57:44 1.620 1 S
16:57:06 1.610 1 S
16:56:54 1.610 4 B
16:56:31 1.610 3 S
16:56:23 1.610 8 S
16:56:02 1.610 4 S
16:55:50 1.610 4 S
16:55:30 1.610 4 S

[millionairemind]

I was talking to a broker friend from DBS VICKERS 5mins ago.

He was saying most likely some institutional trader was trying to buy Capitalland which was traded around $3.. but keyed in the wrong trade for CapMall instead..

If that is the case, somebody is going to lose his job soon.

[iam802]

and...somewhere someone will also be celebrating his win

[winston]

CCT secures S$580m refinancing By UMA SHANKARI

CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) on Tuesday said it has entered into a facility agreement with DBS Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, United Overseas Bank Limited and The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ to secure a three-year term loan of up to S$580 million.

The term loan will be drawn down in March 2009 to refinance the borrowings under the S$580 million commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), the property trust said.

In addition, the trust's manager has decided to abort the redevelopment of Market Street car park into a Grade A office and commercial building. Although the manager said in April 2008 that the decision on the planned redevelopment would be made only after mid-2009, after taking into consideration the uncertain market outlook, tight credit conditions, high redevelopment cost and significant size of the project, the manager has decided to abort the project immediately, CCT said today.

The CMBS is secured by seven properties of CCT - Capital Tower, 6 Battery Road, Robinson Point, Starhub Centre, Bugis Village, Golden Shoe Car Park and Market Street Car Park. However, the term loan will only be secured by a mortgage and other securities relating to Capital Tower, CCT said.

'We have always adopted a proactive approach for our capital management strategy and we are pleased to secure the banks' commitment for the refinancing in advance of the debt maturing in March 2009,' said Lynette Leong, chief executive of the trust's manager.

'We believe that the banks' willingness to lend to CCT with security over just one asset, Capital Tower, is an affirmation of their confidence in the quality and value of CCT's portfolio as well as its blue-chip tenant base.'

As a result, out of CCT's portfolio of eleven properties, eight properties with a total asset value of S$2.8 billion will be free of any encumbrance. This will provide the trust with financial flexibility in managing its capital and balance sheet, Ms Leong said.

[iam802]

.....


In addition, the trust's manager has decided to abort the redevelopment of Market Street car park into a Grade A office and commercial building. Although the manager said in April 2008 that the decision on the planned redevelopment would be made only after mid-2009, after taking into consideration the uncertain market outlook, tight credit conditions, high redevelopment cost and significant size of the project, the manager has decided to abort the project immediately, CCT said today.

.....

Now, everything seems to be high cost.

I remember it was a big news when they announced on the redevelopment of the Market Street car park.

This is probably further prove that demand for office space is dropping.