by winston » Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:09 pm
When I have some time, I would like to look at their China & Vietnam exposure again. If China is going to be the next Dubai, I dont want to be investing in a company with very high exposure to the Chinese Real Estate market.
And if I somehow want to invest in the Chinese Property market, I would probably look for a Chinese company who knows the local conditions.
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Not vested. From Kim Eng:-
CapitaLand – Company Update (Wilson LIEW, DID: 64321454)
Previous Day Closing price: $4.09
Recommendation: BUY (maintained)
Target price: $5.06 (upgraded from $5.04)
CMA IPO a success
The IPO of CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) was a success. The retail tranche of 95m shares was 4.9x subscribed and the placement tranche of about 1.1b shares was 2.5x subscribed. Including the over-allotment option, the IPO raised about $2.8b, and CapitaLand’s stake in CMA is now 65.5%. The last closing price of $2.36 for CMA was an 11% increase from its IPO price of $2.12 per share.
Special dividend likely at around 12 cents
CapitaLand netted a gain of about $883m as a result of CMA’s listing. As alluded by the management, shareholders may be rewarded with a special dividend to be paid out from the gain. Assuming a 60% payout from the net gain, we estimate that the special dividend could be around 12 cents, on top of our forecast of a 3-cent ordinary dividend. The payout is likely to be around May next year, after the AGM.
Redeployment of funds into residential and hospitality businesses
With CMA separately listed, CapitaLand will look to redeploy most of the proceeds into the residential and hospitality businesses, particularly in China. The Group had also formed the CapitaLand Vietnam Executive Committee in September to better steer its operations there, where the Group intends to increase its exposure from 1% to 5-10% of total assets, which we estimate to be about an additional $2b worth of investments.
M-E operations not affected by Dubai defaults
The impact on the Group’s Middle-East operations from the ongoing Dubai debt fallout is minimal, if any. The Group had made a conscious effort not to invest in Dubai. Instead, the Group’s operations are in Abu Dhabi and Bahrain, where it is jointly developing Rihan Heights and Raffles City Bahrain, respectively.
Entering the next growth phase
We believe that CapitaLand is well-positioned for their next leg of growth. We also think that 2010 is a good year for the mid-to-high end property segment in Singapore, which bodes well for the Group, as it prepares to launch Urban Suites, Farrer Court and the rest of the Interlace. We have tweaked our target price to $5.06, pegged at a lower 15%-premium to RNAV of $4.40. Maintain BUY.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"