by winston » Fri Jul 31, 2009 4:46 pm
Not vested. Dont have much luck with this counter ever since it's DBS Land days...
CIMB say short Capitaland. Long OCBC...
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Frm CIMB:-
Capitaland Ltd (S$3.99) – 2Q09 results -Taking a big bath
In line. 2Q09 core net profit of S$124m forms 31% of our full-year forecast and consensus. Revenue fell 28% yoy to S$591m on poorer sales in Australia and the timing of sales recognition in Singapore
Cautious optimism on China. The segment that stood out again was China. Revenue from its China Holdings grew 45% yoy to S$158m on robust home sales in Beijing, Foshan and Ningbo. CapLand sold 1,163 units in 1H09, exceeding FY08 sales of 782 units. However, ASPs were still below 2007 levels, albeit 10% higher yoy. We were more aggressive, assuming ASPs closer to peak levels. Management acknowledges that Chinese officials are looking closely into property lending growth.
Taking a big bath. CapLand booked net impairment charges and revaluation losses amounting to S$284m in 2Q09. Notable revaluation losses were booked for Char Yong Gardens (S$49m) and One North Project (S$109m), while mark-downs for CCT, CMT and Australand are old news. We suspect this marks the start of more impairments to come. A notable revaluation gain of S$358m (S$3,800psf) came from ION Orchard. All in, 2Q09 NTA/share fell from S$2.86 to S$2.73. Net gearing also rose from 0.32x to 0.43x, back to pre-rights issue levels in 4Q08.
Searching for next leg. While the mood during the briefing was more upbeat than during the last round, CapLand signalled its uncertainties over the sustainability of current selling prices in Singapore. Nevertheless, it plans to launch Gillman Heights in 2H09 to capitalise on pent-up demand. In China, CapLand intends to inject another S$500m into property investments. However, plans to monetise assets through IPOs and/or injections into CRCT are still in the infancy stage.
Hefty premium to RNAV unwarranted; maintain Underperform. We lower our FY09 core EPS estimate by 28% but raise our FY10-11 estimates by 29-38% as we defer recognition of some Singapore presales. We lower our end-CY10 RNAV estimate from S$3.06 to S$2.86 on lower asset-value estimates and dilution from the CBS issued (adjusted for rights issue). Our target price, however, rises from S$3.06 to S$3.44 on a 20% premium to RNAV (vs. parity previously) to account for its scale of operations and exposure to a booming China. The stock is expensive in our view, trading at a 40% premium to our RNAV or 1.5x P/BV post-write-downs. Maintain Underperform.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"