Capitaland 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[LenaHuat]

Is any1 attending the AGM ? I can't cuz I've offloaded this ticker.

[winston]

Not vested. From OCBC:-

CapitaLand Ltd: Looks fairly-valued now
Strong recovery in share price. The recent market rally had seen the share price of CapitaLand (CapLand) staging a significant recovery. While the STI has now gained 23.7% after hitting its 52-week closing low of
1,456.95, CapLand has surged 43.6% over the same period. With no catalyst in sight for a sustainable recovery in the property market, we believe that the recent spike in share price is largely sentiment-driven, rather than fundamentally-driven one.

Rights issue completed. Since our last report in February, CapitaLand has completed its Rights issue and with that, it had successfully raised gross proceeds of S$1,835.5m. For CapitaMall Trust's (CMT) Rights issue, CapLand subscribed for a total of 446.1m Rights units and the capital commitment for the subscription amounted to S$365.8m. Upon the completion of its Rights issue and its subscription for CMT's Rights shares,
CapLand now has a cash hoard of ~S$5,698.1m and its net gearing has fallen from 0.46x to 0.3x. Focus will now be on the deployment of the funds raised, which could be a potential catalyst to the re-rating of CapLand's shares.

Limited impact on landbank write-down. As the property market continues to deteriorate, we are seeing increasing risks of write-down in landbank, especially those acquired during the later stage of the property upcycle. For CapLand, its acquisition of Char Yong Garden (at S$1,788 psf ppr) and Farrer Court (at ~S$780 psf ppr) could be at risk of write-down.

Taking into consideration CapLand's effective stakes in these two acquisitions (50% in Char Yong Gardens and 35% in Farrer Court), CapLand's total exposure is ~S$877m and the exposure on CapLand's book value is limited as these account for ~6.3% of CapLand's book value.

Downgrading to HOLD on valuations; Fair value S$2.51. To reflect the increase in market valuation of its listed REITs and investments, our RNAV estimate of CapLand has now been raised to S$3.06 (previously S$3.00). At current share price of S$2.57, CapLand is trading at price/book of 0.87x and price/RNAV of 0.84x. We maintain our 30% discount on our valuation of CapLand's development profits and investment properties and no discount for its listed investments.

Our fair value of CapLand has now been raised to S$2.51. While fundamentals remain solid, valuation looks rich now. Purely on valuation, we are now downgrading CapLand to HOLD. (Foo Sze Ming)

[winston]

DJ MARKET TALK: BNPP Cuts CapitaLand To Reduce; S$1.88 Target

0106 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: BNP Paribas downgrades CapitaLand (C31.SG) to Reduce from Hold, maintains S$1.88 target price. Says risk-reward profile has turned negative as developer faces sizable asset write-down risk, "with the fast deteriorating valuation across all asset classes, we believe CapitaLand''s large portfolio will not be spared from a massive asset write-down."

Says developer particularly exposed to impairment provisions as it purchased land at peak prices back in 2007, thinks provisions of S$470 million (4.4% of book value) could be needed. Prefers CityDev (C09.SG), KepLand (K17.SG) as says they have lower impairment, asset devaluation risks. Shares +2.3% at S$3.07 vs STI +1.3%. (KIG)

[winston]

I'm sure others would be using this to justify why they should be paid more, especially when they are running entities much bigger than Capitaland

From Kim Eng:-

Capitaland heads into its annual general meeting (AGM) today in the awkward position of having to justify the $20.52 million bonus paid to chief executive Liew Mun Leong in 2007. The huge payout, which is thought to be the largest bonus ever awarded to a chief executive here in a single year, has quickly become the talk of the town. The amount came to light only when CapitaLand published its summary report for 2008 on March 24.

CapitaLand justified the figure by pointing to the group's record profit of $2.76 billion that year. In the summary report, it was also revealed that Mr Liew was paid $6.36 million for 2006, when CapitaLand recorded a net profit of some $1.01 billion. When the three years from 2006 to 2008 are taken together, Mr Liew's total bonuses came to almost $30 million.

[winston]

UPDATE 1-CapitaLand profit falls 83 pct,says no swift turnaround

* Does not expect quick turnaround in global property market
* Warns of "downside risk to capital values" (Adds details)

SINGAPORE, April 24 (Reuters) - CapitaLand , Southeast Asia's largest developer, said on Friday first quarter net profit fell 83 percent and warned that it may book losses on investment properties under development in the next quarter.

"We do not expect a quick and sharp turnaround in global property markets," CapitaLand CEO Liew Mun Leong said in a statement.

The firm, whose largest shareholder is state investor Temasek [TEM.UL], said that due to revisions in Singapore accounting law, it will have to revalue investment properties under development at the half year with "downside risk to capital values".

The company added, however, that it was in a strong position to weather the global recession and take advantage of investment opportunities that may arise as it had S$5.5 billion in cash and low net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.32.

CapitaLand earned S$42.9 million in the three months ended March, down from S$247.5 million a year earlier, due to weaker home sales in its main markets of Singapore, China and Australia as well as lower earnings from serviced residences.

Shares of CapitaLand fell 9.5 percent in the first quarter compared with a 3.5 percent drop in the benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI>.

Analysts expect CapitaLand to post a 62 percent fall in net profit to about S$475 million this year due to slower home sales and a drop in the value of its investment properties, according to the median forecast of 21 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

[Cheng]

I don't like what I'm looking at. What can you guys see on this chart?

[blid2def]

不出三日，必有血光之灾.

p.s. Just anyhow whack; not based on chart study. Hahaha...

[kennynah]

i see alot of "green shoots"

[blid2def]

More seriously though - think resistance at 3.4; and a few support levels at intervals of 20 cents below current price to allow a systematic withdrawal if needed (and allowed).

[Cheng]

i see alot of "green shoots"

Ken da ge, what are "green shoots"?

From what I see on price action, it is dying to go down. How deep I don't know.

ps. I want it to go down so that I can buy it cheap.