Jim Cramer

Re: Jim Cramer

Postby LenaHuat » Sun Sep 21, 2008 6:21 pm

Thank Q Q to all for the wunderful replies :D

Upon reading Cramer, I was certain that he meant a megabottom and so it could only go UP, UP and UP. And so I re-read his book and extracted some of his writings (I've got to be honest with his words. Becuz it's a hodgepotch spread over several pages, I've taken the liberty to string some sentences together):
That's why I am not a chaser; I'm a classic bottom fisher...Bottom fishing requires incredible patience and a sense that juz when U are abt to give up is the moment that greatness strikes. U can't rush bottoms. The bottoms I am talking abt are rare, rare and dramatic. ......My bottoms are what I call 'megabottoms'. These are the kinds of bottoms that U brag abt getting for years, the kind that occur after vicious and often wilderly exaggerated declines.........."


GR - As these megatbottoms are RARE :lol:, a small sample size is irrevelant.
Additionally, I consider Nasdaq intrinsicially volatile.
K - this coefficient bit is very useful. -0.8 is good enuff for decision making.

When I heard Mohamed El-Erian on CNBC, I was certain that a sharp recovery is on hand. It's the trigger after the setup. He will appear live in the Squawk Box Studio on Monday morning (ET) but please check CNBC for the exact time of his appearance.

(An after-thought : this is unlikely to be a V-shaped recovery)
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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby millionairemind » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:20 am

The Media Equation
Jim Cramer Retreats Along With the Dow


Last Friday afternoon, Jim Cramer, CNBC’s star stock-picker, took time before taping his hourlong show, “Mad Money,” to talk to a visitor in the cable network’s headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.

After weeks of dreadful performance, it looked as if the Dow was finally giving investors a chance to exhale, up some 200 points during the day, though it later ended down 127 points. He chatted for a few minutes about how the market’s volatility was testing everyone, then he happened to glance at the computer screen in his office.

“We’re now down a hundred just since we started talking,” he said, shaking his head in disbelief. “Wow, what a terrible market.”

So terrible that Jim Cramer, the happy warrior who cheered the Dow on his cable show surrounded by his menagerie of stuffed animals, sound effects and bobble-heads has traded the pom-poms for a votive candle, praying that the market finds a way to right itself — and maybe restore some of the luster to his chosen profession.

After years of selling the stock market as a reliable path to riches, Mr. Cramer came in for some brutal criticism recently from viewers and competitors.

In March, he said Bear Stearns “is not in trouble.” After Bear Stearns tipped over, he wrote in his New York magazine column that the bottom had finally come. “I feel the bear has been tamed, and the worst of the clawing is over,” he said. And on Sept. 15, he hosted his friend Robert Steel, chief executive of Wachovia, and suggested that its $10.71 share price was a bargain. Two weeks later, it was at $1.84.

On Oct. 6, he went on the “Today” show on NBC (which, like CNBC, is owned by NBC Universal) and said, “Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market. Right now. This week,” he told a surprised Ann Curry. “I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock markets.”

The Dow dropped 18 percent in the week that followed. In a follow-up visit to “Today,” one of the viewers wrote in to accuse him of shouting fire in a crowded building. (His reply: “But what happens if there is a fire in the building?”) When the Dow zoomed up 936 points on the following Monday, he was accused of leaving his loyal viewers standing on the sidelines.

He says he has tried to make amends for Bear Stearns and Wachovia.

“I apologized to my viewers,” he said. “I apologized on the ‘Today’ show. It is a completely humbling market.” But he won’t apologize for his five-year comment.

“It was one of the greatest calls of my life,” he said, “and I’ve been pilloried for it.”


At a time when people are looking for heads to roll, the man who likes to tear the noggins off bobble-heads is a pretty ripe target.

Even with all the finger-pointing and funeral crepe, however, Jim Cramer still loves running his show and his mouth about the market, even if the market is not loving him back. But the game plan has changed along with the context.

Now a show that promises to “make you some money” spends time talking about defensive investing, capital preservation and — this really hurts — trying to find value in dividends, normally the refuge of conservative investors minding their purse strings.

He concedes that “when you don’t have a lot of things going right, the show becomes a different exercise.” So “Mad Money,” a loud, dirty pleasure for some of us during the run-up, has become like watching ESPN’s “SportsCenter” with every team stuck on a losing streak.

“I’m a home team guy and my home team is the bulls in my audience,” he said, the wear and tear of the past few weeks evident in his voice. “Right now, my team is losing.”

Oddly, however, Mr. Cramer isn’t. The brutal gyrations of the market have been good for ratings. Since Sept. 15, when Lehman Brothers tanked, Merrill Lynch was sold for parts and A.I.G. teetered, “Mad Money” has averaged 427,000 viewers, nearly double its average of 222,000 for the prior four weeks.

Because of his job as a television picker, Mr. Cramer, a former hedge fund savant with lots of money, has minimal exposure to this huge downside. (He owns stock in General Electric, the parent company of CNBC, and in TheStreet.com, but nothing else in order to avoid conflicts.)

But the market is a terrible place to be and it happens to be the place where Mr. Cramer day trades on his persona. He still appears on television screens at a camera-ready desk that is decorated by a herd of animal figurines. The bulls still outnumber the bears by two to one — there are a few pigs thrown in for good measure — but the man who sits behind it and rants knows better. He is not predicting that the bottom has arrived or will be here any time soon.

“Can we have the recession first before we decide that we’ve found the bottom?” he said. “I want to see the things that typically happen in a recession before we say it’s the bottom, and then I will be more positive.”

On Friday’s show, one of his featured stocks was Watsco, a heating and ventilation company that was paying out decent dividends as its stock sunk along with the rest of the market.

“This company is paying you to wait for the bottom,” he said with his characteristic gusto as he stalked the Steadicam in studio. Later in the same show, he suggested that “this is a time when you try to hunker down and lose less than the other guys.”

It makes for a far less festive hour with a manic guy who treats the camera as an opponent in a wrestling match. (CNBC has a content-sharing agreement with The New York Times.)

On “Mad Money” he now makes fewer recommendations and is hitting the button marked “House of Pain” a lot more often than the one marked “House of Pleasure,” but tearing the horns off a bull does not make it any more relevant to an economy rendered in fragile china.

Mr. Cramer will never be Suze Orman, telling you how to carefully handle the money you have left. (I never enjoyed Suez shows)

He is a blue sky kind of guy, a creature of a fast-fading era. The viewers still shout “Booyah,” when they call in, but nobody, including Mr. Cramer, is feeling it.

“We are still going to try and find things, but it’s harder to have a good batting average. It is harder to get it right than any time I have seen in my career,” he said.

Fox Business Network, sensing an opportunity to tweak CNBC, has developed print and broadcast ads that take ripe aim at Mr. Cramer, saying, “The last thing you need is bad advice. The last thing you need is Jim Cramer.” To add insult to injury, Fox bought local time on CNBC — beating up Mr. Cramer on his own network. (Nice touch, that.)

The ad is vintage Roger Ailes, the chairman of the Fox News Channel who once upon a time also ran CNBC. Fox’s business channel has had a slow start, with a fraction of CNBC’s viewers and an audience that is rarely big enough to be publicly rated by Nielsen. It was the kind of attack ad that would fit right into the closing weeks of a presidential campaign. The message: money is not fun anymore. It is political, it is scary, and it is brutal.

“I like Roger, he taught me a lot,” he said about the times they worked together. “He taught me I am a hate ’em or like ’em person. The hated is the flip side of being liked.”

And sometimes, it depends on who’s doing the flipping. While much has been made of his bad calls, has Mr. Cramer been more wrong than say, Ben Bernanke or Henry Paulson? His enthusiasms may have led some to overindex into a crumbling market, but his audience is composed of consenting adults, aspiring rich guys who are willing to play in the Street to make it happen. He didn’t make the kind of short-sighted executive moves that tipped over investment banks or put taxpayers on the hook. He’s just a barker in front of a tent that is collapsing.

As the markets performed another U-turn on Friday, the script for “Mad Money” became a crisscross of revisions. By the time he got to the end, the voluble Mr. Cramer was at a loss for words. He held off the crew and said, “I have to think about what I am going to say about all this.”

So what is the polite thing to say? The jig is up? Go to the mattresses? Run for your life? He wrapped up the show by talking about prosaic yields, not robust earnings.

“I think it’s O.K. to say that was a relatively dull show. It’s not a message of hope, it’s a message of defense,” he said afterward. And then he reached for a metaphor that’s going to come in handy.

“It’s just a bear trying to do a show in this environment,” he said.
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby kennynah » Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:19 pm

Mr. Cramer will never be Suze Orman, telling you how to carefully handle the money you have left. (I never enjoyed Suez shows)


watch suzie orman show if you are interested to know whether to buy that gucci handbag or that pair ferragamo shoes...she will advice... 8-)

watch cramer to get "ticker" ideas...then do your own homework... where i am concern...where jimmy goes, i walk 180 degrees away from him..most times...
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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby millionairemind » Sun Oct 26, 2008 12:00 pm

For those Cramer Booyah fans... Things are not as bad as they look :P

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27361463
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby blid2def » Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:32 am

Was looking through the list of Gurus, trying to find an article... then saw Jim Cramer listed...

Guru?!?!?!?!
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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby winston » Mon Apr 27, 2009 10:53 pm

Cramer: Housing Will Bottom June 30 By: Dan Weil

Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's Mad Money, stands by his prediction that housing will begin its rebound July 1.

This whole mess started with housing, and when we finally get some stability in the housing market, I think things can really start to get much better, Cramer said recently on his show.

But first that market has to bottom. Last year I predicted that housing would bottom by June 30 of this year.

And what does Cramer think at the moment? While that call was mocked endlessly it's now looking more plausible, he says.

The homebuilders have scaled back operations to the point where now we're building the same amount of homes as we had in this country with 100 million fewer people. That means less inventory.

Cramer cited statistics that point to a bottom. Housing starts down 48 percent, housing permits down 45 percent. Areas where prices have fallen 40 percent, they'ree seeing a bottom.

Bottom line, he says, he think the June 30 housing bottom is spot on.

Robert Toll, chief executive of home builder Toll Brothers, shares Cramer's optimism.

I don't want to overstate it,he said on Cramer's show. But I told you I'll give you a call when I saw things differently. And I definitely see them as different now.

Another sign of strength: The Wall Street Journal reports that bidding wars have emerged at foreclosure auctions amid strong demand from investors and first-home buyers.

© 2009 Newsmax

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk ... 07078.html
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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby iam802 » Mon Apr 27, 2009 10:59 pm

The current 'best practices' for Cramer's suggestion is to trade the opposite.

Guess, it is not going to bottom so soon :)
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

TA and Options stuffs on InvestIdeas:
The Ichimoku Thread | Option Strategies Thread | Japanese Candlesticks Thread
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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby winston » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:22 am

To be fair, I think some people have used "Buy & Hold" effectively for companies that they know very well, rather than to use it for an index ..

==========================================

Jim Cramer: Buy-and-Hold Is for Losers By: Gene J. Koprowski

Investors who employed the “buy-and-hold” strategy have gone nowhere over the last decade, says investment guru Jim Cramer.

The Dow Jones average recently rose over 10,000 points, prompting many to point out that stocks were at that level a decade ago.

“The major averages have literally fallen back to levels they first hit 10 years ago. That means, for example, that if you'd contributed a little bit to your 401(k) each month, the way most people do, then most of your buying was at much higher prices,” writes Cramer in his column at TheStreet.com. “The results are in.”

Cramer’s harsh assessment goes even further, as he reckons that there may well be no difference today between “gambling” in Las Vegas or Atlantic City or Macau and buying and holding stock in a company.

“It's investing blind, and investing blind is no different from investing dumb,” adds Cramer.

Though he is pessimistic about the “buy and hold strategy,” Cramer counsels investors not to give up hope completely in Wall Street, nor to put their money in a savings account at the local bank.

“You'll never get back to even that way,” writes Cramer.

“Because there is a world of difference between owning stocks, which has caused so much wealth to disappear, and trying to make money in stocks, an approach that at the very least lets you sidestep some of the pain. You can get back to even if you follow the latter course.”

Cramer’s advice is, of course, controversial.

Major investment research firms continue to recommend the buy-and-hold strategy for stocks in many market sectors throughout the global economy.

Source: Newsmax.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk ... 73169.html
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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby kennynah » Wed Oct 21, 2009 8:44 am

mad jim is still alive.... 8-)
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Re: Jim Cramer

Postby winston » Thu Jan 07, 2010 8:38 am

Cramer: Themes for 2010

2010 is shaping up to be the year when
1) The stimulus goes away, causing a double dip;
2) The budget deficit destroys the dollar and U.S. competitiveness;
3) Rates soar higher; and
4) Housing continues to slip and now hits prime borrowers

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10655563 ... -2010.html
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