James Bianco

James Bianco

Postby profittaker » Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:39 am

The Investing Theme of a Lifetime That Everybody Missed

What’s the biggest investing theme in the past 30 years that most investors missed? Bonds.

“Over the last several years the conventional wisdom has been to get out of bonds as they offer no return,” Bianco Research writes.

But bonds have outperformed stocks by a full percent on an annualized basis over the past 30 years, firm notes.

“Bond returns have beaten stock returns over every holding period from one month to 30 years,” Bianco writes. “This bond outperformance has been the biggest investment theme of our lifetime missed by most investment professionals.”

It won’t last forever, Bianco says, but it won’t end today, either.

“Bonds have treated investors well and someday they will not,” it writes. “But that someday does not appear to be now.”

Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10 ... dy-missed/
learning to swim. Welcome to comment on my Options trading journal
User avatar
profittaker
Foreman
 
Posts: 447
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:26 am

Re: James Bianco

Postby profittaker » Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:39 am

Are U.S. Stock ETFs Cheap?

[email protected] (Tom Lydon), On Friday October 14, 2011, 2:22 pm EDT
Bullish investors argue that the summer sell-off in equities has knocked stock valuations down to such a degree that exchange traded funds are cheap and safe to buy.

The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 has dropped to a level not seen since 1990, according to Chart of the Day.

However, there are caveats. If the economy slips into another recession, then Wall Street’s current earnings forecasts could end up being way too optimistic.

“We are now back at normal P/Es where some might even say that the market is cheap,” writes J.C. Parets at All Star Charts. “But can it get cheaper? Of course. The problem here is the ‘E’ [earnings] in P/E. We don’t know what the earnings are going to look like. All we have are estimates – and they’re always getting revised.”

Indeed, earnings estimates have been too rosy in recent economic pullbacks, especially in the 2007-2009 “Great Recession.”

“Wall Street is one of the few places where practice does not make perfect,” according to a Bianco Research presentation posted at The Big Picture blog.

“If the economy goes into recession, earnings forecasts are not 10% to 12% too high. Instead they might be 20% to 40% too high. In other words, if the economy goes into recession, the earnings forecasts are horribly wrong,” Bianco states. “They might be so wrong that one can make the case that the market might be overvalued. We believe this is part of what is bothering the markets, the epiphany that the economy is much weaker than expected and a recession will blow a hole in earnings forecasts to the point that the market might not be cheap anymore.”

Bloomberg reported the rout in stocks has pushed S&P 500 valuations 25% below the average level from the last nine recessions as profit estimates fall with stock prices. Companies in the blue-chip index are trading at just above 10 times 2012 forecast earnings, according to the report. [Stock ETF Sell-Off Attracts Value Investors]

Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Are-U-S-S ... 42719.html
learning to swim. Welcome to comment on my Options trading journal
User avatar
profittaker
Foreman
 
Posts: 447
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:26 am

Re: James Bianco

Postby profittaker » Sun Oct 16, 2011 9:40 am

Markets: Miracle on Wall Street?

VIDEO

CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis has the rundown on Friday's market activity, and discussing if this is the end of a bear market run, and whether stocks are set to soar, with James Bianco, Bianco Research; Steven Cortes, Veracruz; and Michael Farr, Farr, Miller & Washington.

Source: http://www.capital.gr/News.asp?id=1305420
learning to swim. Welcome to comment on my Options trading journal
User avatar
profittaker
Foreman
 
Posts: 447
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 10:26 am


Return to Market Gurus

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests