Albert Edwards

Re: Albert Edwards

Postby winston » Thu Sep 08, 2016 11:16 am

Albert Edwards: No Alternative to Stocks? Just Wait For the Next Bear Market

By Ben Levisohn

Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards is back, and the notorious perma-bear comes bearing warnings for investors who have bought into the notion that there is no alternative to stocks:

One thing we learnt from Japan is that the equity secular valuation bear market takes many economic cycles to unfold and ends when equities are ‘dirt cheap’.


We also learnt from Japan that each successive recession caused equity valuations to slump to new secular lows. And history shows that is exactly the case too in previous US secular valuation bear markets …


Source: Barron's

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatcht ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Albert Edwards

Postby winston » Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:14 am

US recovery is heading towards its death: SocGen's Edwards

by Gemma Acton

On a technical perspective, Edwards turns to fellow Société Géneralé analyst Stephanie Aymes, who believes if 10-year yields break above 2.28 percent, they could go all the way to 3.00 to 3.38 percent.


Source: CNBC.com

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/17/us-recov ... 50c72915e4
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Re: Albert Edwards

Postby winston » Sun Dec 11, 2016 6:34 pm

Behold, the ‘most frightening chart’ that Albert Edwards wants investors to see

By Sue Chang

EPU index shows global political uncertainty at an unprecedented level

The “most frightening chart” in the world shows that most investors are not aware of the elevated level of political uncertainty.

The chart shows credit spreads holding steady even as political uncertainty spikes to an unprecedented level.


Investors should be worried, said Edwards, as his analysis shows that U.S. debt is the “vortex of debility for the next recession.”


Source: Market Watch

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Albert Edwards

Postby winston » Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:43 pm

A legendary Wall Street strategist lays out the stock market's 'nightmare scenario'

The legendary strategist Albert Edwards thinks investors are ignoring many latent risks in the stock market.

His "nightmare scenario" combines accelerating wage inflation with a hawkish adjustment to Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations.

He's identified the worst-case scenario for what could cause a massive stock blowout, and it ultimately involves the Federal Reserve raising rates too slowly. But that won't just happen for no reason — Edwards thinks there needs to be a surprising economic jolt.

That's right: In an ironic twist, the economy could recover too quickly for the stock market to handle. And shockingly strong wage inflation could be the root cause of the catastrophe.

"High wage inflation data in the months ahead could cause a rapid reappraisal of the pace of Fed rate hikes. At these high equity valuations, that could really scare investors."

Another element of the US macroeconomic picture that could be affected by expectations of quicker Fed tightening is the dollar. Bucking forecasts and staying surprisingly weak for much of 2017, the greenback could be due for a bullish reversal in the event of hawkish expectations. The US dollar index has fallen by more than 7% year-to-date.

That would be bad news for the torrid earnings growth being enjoyed by US companies, since the large multinational corporations with heavy weighting in stock indexes have had exports boosted by a weak currency.

Edwards also draws a comparison between modern-day investment methods — volatility targeting, risk parity, and trend-following quant funds — and the 1987-era hedging technique called "portfolio insurance," which is frequently associated with the market crash.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/legendar ... 00017.html
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