Bob Doll

Bob Doll

Postby winston » Thu Mar 11, 2010 7:35 am

BLACKROCK: THE RECOVERY IS REAL, GET ON BOARD
10 March 2010

Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist at BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, is striking a very bullish tone in his latest strategy note.

This is the polar opposite from his former Merrill Lynch companion, David Rosenberg, who says we are not recovering (see here). Doll says the recovery is the real deal and that you better jump on board the risk asset train before you get left behind.

He says the March 2009 lows are here to stay and the withdrawal of government stimulus will actually prove the recovery to be quite real (yours truly is a bit more skeptical):

http://pragcap.com/blackrock-the-recove ... t-on-board
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby -dol- » Thu Mar 11, 2010 8:03 am

What can one expect from one of the largest asset gatherers in the world? Their compensation is largely based on "assets under management".

The US federal government is directly spending 9% more of GDP today than it was just two years ago. Take that away and the economy and the market can actually "recover" on its own? Right NOW and then?

How do you explain the the unemployment numbers? And these don't include those who have simply given up hope of nailing a job anytime soon. US SMEs (arguably the largest employers, other than a still expanding Big Govt) are not hiring. MNCs are hoarding cash - because they see "something" coming?

Is it Bob Doll or Bob Hope?
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby winston » Wed Mar 24, 2010 7:20 am

BOB DOLL: THIS IS NO TIME TO GET BEARISH

The largest money manger in the world isn’t toning down their bullish outlook for equities. They were very bullish coming into 2010 (see here for Bob Doll 10 for 2010) and have thus far been proven prescient. In his latest weekly report, Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist at BlackRock, says the recovery is picking up momentum. Doll says the job losses are a thing of the past and says jobs may surge by 6 figures this month:

“As we have been discussing for some time, the key economic variable that most are watching is the employment picture. From our perspective, we believe the jobs shedding phase appears to have ended, although new jobs are still not being created. We are optimistic that this scenario will change in March.

Decreases in unemployment claims, one of the strongest leading indicators of payrolls, have accelerated in recent weeks. We are forecasting that payrolls may increase in the six-figure range for the current month. Factoring in the hiring of census workers, we would not be surprised to see that number top the 200,000 mark.”

Doll says the recent fears in China should be closely maintained and that sovereign debt fears could continue to contribute to market volatility. Although the global tightening phase has begun, there should be substantial lag time between the beginning of rate increases and actual economic impacts:

“Equity markets do continue to face some risks. In addition to the prevailing economic uncertainty, investors are concerned about the prospects of premature policy tightening in markets around the world, including China. Meanwhile, credit-related problems such as those surrounding Greece’s debt remind us that deflationary pressures have not vanished.

Many are also concerned about the Fed’s strategy for exiting its current accommodative stance, although we think that even when the Fed does begin to raise rates, it will take quite some time before short-term rates move into restrictive territory. Additionally, state and local governments remain under pressure and concerns about the effects of protectionist trade policies present some risks.”

None of this is a reason to turn bearish, however as the positives outweigh the negatives:

“On balance, however, we continue to believe that the positive factors outweigh the negatives. Credit conditions are improving, we expect employment to increase, the Fed remains accommodative, inflation threats are absent and corporations are ramping up merger and acquisition activity. In all, we expect a prevailing equity friendly environment will help stock prices continue to rise over the long term.”

http://pragcap.com/bob-doll-this-is-no- ... et-bearish
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby winston » Thu Apr 08, 2010 9:25 am

BOB DOLL: RISKS REMAIN, BUT STAY LONG EQUITIES

The largest asset manager in the United States remains firmly bullish on the recovery though many risks remain. In his latest strategy note Bob Doll highlighted several of the risks facing the markets at this juncture, but maintains that equity markets have largely priced these risks in. Nonetheless, they could continue to roil the markets in the coming months, but should not be overreacted towards:

“All of this is not to say that the economy and the markets will experience smooth sailing from here. In recent weeks, we have been highlighting some of the down-side risks, including ongoing credit-related issues (chiefly in the euro region) and the possibilities of premature policy tightening (chiefly in China). To these, we would add a slowdown in the rate of economic growth in Asian economies.

These markets have been key drivers of global economic growth in recent years, but have been foundering a bit over the last six months. Additionally, we remain concerned about protectionist sentiment from Washington, DC. In all, equity markets have not been overly concerned about all of these risks (an appropriate view, in our minds), but these are trends that continue to bear close monitoring.”

Despite the risks Doll says the U.S. recovery is coming along well and the recession is long behind us. The jobs market is healing and the end of government stimulus is no longer a fear. He expects full blown expansion to resume in the coming year and that this environment will continue to reward investors who are taking risks:

“In summary, we believe that the recession probably ended in June or July of last year, and while the jobs market normally lags in a recovery, the lag has been unusually long in this case. Nevertheless, the March payrolls report signaled what we believe is the start of a long-awaited rebound in the employment picture, which should be beneficial for the broader economy.

As fiscal and monetary stimulus begins to fade over the coming months, the economy is going to require some self-sustaining mechanisms to kick in, and growing employment levels would certainly be beneficial. Over the course of the next year, we expect that the economy will successfully shift from an economic recovery to an economic expansion.

This environment of continued improvement in the economy, combined with still low interest rates and improving corporate profits, represents a sort of “sweet spot” for risk assets. As such, we think it makes sense for investors to continue overweighting equities and credit-related fixed income assets and underweighting cash and Treasuries.”

Source: Blackrock
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby -dol- » Fri Apr 09, 2010 8:22 am

Bob "the Hope" Doll has consistently called this a "cyclical bull market" in his various writings.

Given his optimisim, wonder when he will upgrade this to a "secular bull market" :?:
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby winston » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:37 pm

Bob Doll’s 10 predictions for the next 10 years

1. US equities experience high single-digit percentage total returns after the worst decade since the 1930s.

2. Recessions occur more frequently during this decade than only once a decade as occurred in the last 20 years.

3. Healthcare, information technology and energy alternatives are leading growth areas for the United States.

4. The US dollar continues to become less dominant as the decade progresses.

5. Interest rates move irregularly higher in the developed world.

6. Country self-interest leads to more trade and political conflicts.

7. An aging and declining population gives Europe some of Japan’s problems.

8. World growth is led by emerging market consumers.

9. Emerging markets weighting in global indices rises significantly.

10. China’s economic and political ascent continues.


Source: Bob Doll, BlackRock, August 2010.

http://www2.blackrock.com/content/group ... 116408.pdf
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby kennynah » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:43 pm

key executives in blackrock...i dont see bob doll in the list....so, it leaves to imagination, who this chap is?

* Laurence D. Fink — Chairman & CEO
* Robert S. Kapito — President
* Robert W. Fairbairn - Vice Chairman, Head of Global Client Group
* Blake Grossman - Vice Chairman, Head of Scientific Equities
* Charles S. Hallac - Vice Chairman, Co-Chief Operating Officer
* Rich Kushel - Vice Chairman, Head of International Business
* Susan L. Wagner - Vice Chairman, Co-Chief Operating Officer
* Bennett W. Golub - Vice Chairman, Chief Risk Officer
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby winston » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:53 pm

Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby kennynah » Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:55 pm

by the way....blackrock acquired barclay's ishares mutual funds unit...if i didn't wrongly gather ...

so, all these "ishare" equities you trade, are managed by blackrock....
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Re: Bob Doll

Postby winston » Sun Jun 05, 2011 9:31 am

And from the "half-full glass guy" ...

The Bullish Case For The U.S. Economy: Our Ability To Be Productive And Innovative In A Tough World By Mark Perry

From today’s WSJ interview with Robert Doll, Wall Street’s perma-optimist and chief equity strategist for BlackRock, “The Bullish Case for the U.S. Economy“:

“As intriguing in this moment of U.S. pessimism is the 56-year-old uber-investor’s long-term bullishness on American companies and U.S. competitiveness. “You could say we’re the best house in a bad neighborhood,” says the man who has spent 28 years managing money. “We have fewer problems and more solutions than Europe or Japan.”

“Over the next 20 years, the U.S. work force is going to grow by 11%, Europe’s going to fall by five, and Japan’s going to fall by 17. This alone tells me the U.S. has a huge advantage over Europe and a bigger one over Japan for growth,” he says.

“And the reason for this is pretty simple. We have higher immigration than both of these, and we make more babies. We have a higher fertility rate. And they are the long-term determinants of population growth and therefore work force growth.”

But can we really win merely by staying ahead of Europe and Japan? So far the answer seems to be yes. People are invariably shocked when Mr. Doll tells them that in 1995 the U.S. produced roughly 25% of the world’s goods and services and in 2010, after 15 years that included a tech bust, a terrorist attack and a housing bust that triggered a financial crisis, the U.S. was still producing that same 25% of global GDP (see chart above).

How is this possible given the rapid rise of China and India? Mr. Doll says the increase in emerging markets’ share of the world economy has come “at the expense of mostly Japan and a bit Europe. The U.S. has held its own, which I think is a statement of our ability to be productive in a tough world.”

But even with all our problems, he says, “I think the entrepreneurial spirit is alive and well in the U.S.” He argues that we are still the source of technological innovation and home to the greatest universities and the most creative businesses. He sees promising advances in health care and alternative energy technologies.

By alternative he doesn’t necessarily mean “green” energy, but simply new power sources given that he expects oil prices to keep rising.”


http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/201 ... ugh-world/
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