Felix Zulauf

Felix Zulauf

Postby winston » Thu Jan 21, 2010 7:41 am

GURU OUTLOOK: FELIX ZULAUF & THE SECULAR BEAR MARKET

This week’s Guru Outlook brings us the brilliance of Felix Zulauf. Zulauf is the founder of Zulauf Asset Management based in Switzerland and is well known for his appearances in Barron’s annual roundtable.

Zulauf has nailed the secular bear market downturn and 2009 upturn about as well as anyone. More importantly, he has been nearly flawless in connecting the dots in the macro picture. From the de-leveraging cycle that led to the downturn to the government stimulus that led to the upturn – Zulauf has been remarkably prescient.

Zulauf’s macro outlook hasn’t changed all that much. He still believes the de-leveraging bear market cycle is with us and that we’re in the early stages. Zulauf sees a number of similarities with Japan and says the consumer is in the process of long-term balance sheet repair:


But Zulauf hasn’t turned bearish in the short-term yet. He says the markets have another 10% of upside before concerns over the end of the stimulus begin to weigh on the markets:


Zulauf believes gold is the only currency that isn’t currently flawed. He says the likelihood of a correction this year is very high, but that the secular bull in gold will continue. He says gold will outperform stocks in the coming 5 years. Specifically, he likes physical gold and the GLD etf. Although gold stocks could perform well, he says there are too many outside influences in gold stocks.


In terms of currencies Zulauf sees an opportunity to short the Euro and Yen against the dollar.


Although we’ve avoided a total economic Zulauf says the difficulties are far from over. Like TPC, Zulauf says the biggest risks lie in the latter half of 2010 and into 2011 when governments pass the baton onto the private sector:

All of this will ultimately result in a new bear market and another punishing period for global investors:


http://pragcap.com/guru-outlook-felix-zulauf
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby winston » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:52 am

ZULAUF: PREPARE FOR A CORRECTION IN ALL MARKETS by TPC

Felix Zulauf provided some excellent macro thoughts in a recent interview with King World news.

Zulauf believes gold is in a secular bull market, but that the near-term move is overextended.

More specifically, Zulauf says the downside in the dollar is overdone and he foresees a dollar rally into the year-end.

This will cause a correction in most assets – equities, commodities and gold. He says the correction in gold as a buying opportunity, however.

As always, Zulauf’s thoughts are a must listen. You can see the full interview here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldn ... ulauf.html

Source: King World News

http://pragcap.com/zulauf-prepare-correction-markets
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby winston » Sun May 15, 2011 7:33 pm

Hurst Cycles Confirm Felix Zuluaf Bearish Outlook

Felix Zulauf spends his time monitoring cycles of all forms. He has a great track record, so when he speaks you had better listen.This his latest.

This is consistent with our cycles: Cycles say the bears are about to roar

Barron’s Roundtable member Felix Zulauf spoke to the German-language Handelsblatt about the European sovereign debt crisis and financial markets in an article published today. Like Jeremy Grantham, he has turned bearish. Below is the translation by Creditwritedowns.com of the article.

Title: Italy is Next

The euro will break apart. At least that is what stock market Guru Felix Zulauf expects. Handelsblatt spoke to the Swiss investment banker about his expectations for the stock market.

Frankfurt. Mr. Zulauf, you were always a big critic of the euro. How is the crisis going?

Felix Zulauf: Debt problems are never solved by more debt. In Greece, an epic drama is playing out. The Greeks are broke. The Irish are too.and the Portuguese are close.

Who’s next?

Spain is still doing well, but the things will proceed as in Ireland. The Spanish bonds are priced incorrectly. The European Central Bank is manipulating the price.

Is that the full count of crisis countries?

No, it is missing Italy. Deposits are falling at their banks. We are experiencing a bank run in slow motion. Banks in Italy and in Spain are being refinanced with ever more short-term financing. Soon the biggest buyer of government bonds will be missing. This means that yields have to rise. And the bomb will explode in Italy this year already.

Can the Euro take it?

No. The markets want a breakup of the euro, with a value loss of 40 to 50 percent in the peripheral countries. The politicians want to save the euro.This is only possible via a weak currency and high inflation.

And the other currencies?

None is healthy. The dollar is also weak. Only the Americans believe that they can live with a 10 percent government deficit every year and that the U.S. central bank can expand its balance sheet forever.

How does the Fed deal with the crisis?

The purchase of government bonds was nonsense. We live in an era of central banks as great financial market manipulators. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wants higher stock prices. Previously they would have sent a Fed chairman into the wilderness for such a goal.

And the consequences?

My scenario for the coming years, even for Germany: tax increases, reduction of growth expectations, thus decreasing purchasing power. Profits will accrue only the wealthy few, who own stocks, real estate and commodities.

What’s on shorter term in the stock market?

Between the Spring and the Fall, I expect a major correction in commodities and stocks. This has now begun. The markets are overheated and the emerging economies are raising interest rates.

Investors have so far been very sanguine…

Because they have made a lot of money over the last two years. Now a defensive positioning is best. First to fall will be commodities, then shares. In the summer, analysts will begin to lower their earnings expectations. Then shares will drop, perhaps by 20 percent.

And what will the Federal Reserve do then?

It starts its next government bond purchases, their “QE3.”

http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/ ... h-outlook/
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby winston » Wed Aug 17, 2011 7:15 am

ZULAUF: OWN GOLD, TREASURIES, NO DEBT & GET OUT OF EQUITIES by Cullen Roche

Felix Zulauf was profiled in this week’s Barrons and the bearish fund manager is now beginning to sound downright apocalyptic.

The problem is, he’s had the macro picture nailed far better than most others. He recently told the magazine:

http://pragcap.com/zulauf-own-gold-trea ... f-equities
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby winston » Thu Oct 06, 2011 7:50 am

Felix Zulauf on Europe and more

Zulauf is very euro-sceptic because of the imbalances between saver nations of the euro-core and the debtor nations of the euro-periphery.

He sees politicians lagging reality, always two steps behind and how this will put the entire banking system at risk. This will also have political consequences.

Zulauf also discusses the current economic situation and similarities with 2008.

He explains that Greece is bigger than Lehman and thus we can expect more market turmoil than in 2008.

He also quotes Einstein’s definition of insanity: “doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results”.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2011 ... pe+Town%29
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby winston » Mon Oct 31, 2011 7:17 pm

Felix Zulauf: Buy more gold on dips
by Prieur du Plessis

Felix Zulauf, president of Zulauf Asset Management, says (at Barron’s 2011 Art of Successful Investing conference) that gold needs a few months to build another base between $1,475 and $1,750 an ounce before its next move up sometime next year.


http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2011 ... pe+Town%29
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby winston » Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:05 am

ZULAUF: DEPRESSION WILL LEAD TO A COLLAPSE OF THE EUROby Cullen Roche

Feliz Zulauf was interview by King World News over the weekend and offered some excellent macro insights on the situation in Europe.

The Swiss macro money manager, unfortunately, has been right about the Euro’s developments over the last few years and has a very dire outlook.

He says the periphery is entering a periphery that will eventually lead to several nations leaving the currency union:

http://pragcap.com/zulauf-depression-wi ... f-the-euro
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby winston » Tue Jun 12, 2012 8:47 am

“We are witnessing the biggest market manipulation of all time.” by Joshua M Brown

Felix Zulauf, living legend and veteran member of the Barron's Roundtable, lays out his still-bearish thesis in the magazine's mid-year update this weekend...


So what will happen next?

The euro is not the real problem but a trigger and compounder of the structural problems. It could only work if the euro zone entered a fiscal and political union, which won't happen, as Europeans aren't prepared to give up national sovereignty.

Politicians therefore will go from one compromise and quick fix to the next, with the crisis deepening until some nations at the periphery won't be able to stand the economic pain anymore. They will want their old national currency back, and devalue to adjust the external accounts.

China won't be able to save us, as it did in 2009. The Chinese will lower interest rates but their actions will be reactive and lag. If my thesis is right, we must assume things will go awfully wrong in the next 12 months and the system will be at risk of collapsing. Most U.S.-focused investors might not understand it as they see corporations doing well.


How bad will things get?

The potential exists for a broad-based nationalization of the credit system, capital controls and dramatic restrictions on financial markets. Some might even be closed for some time.


Good heavens!

We are witnessing the biggest financial-market manipulation of all time. The authorities have intervened more and more, and thereby created this monster. They might change the rules when the game goes against their own interests.

We are in a severe credit crunch. It starts when the weakest links in the system can't finance their activities. Then you have a flight to safety into Treasuries and German bunds, compounded by a quasi-shortage of good collateral.

That's why bond yields have fallen so low. This isn't an inflationary environment but a deflationary one.


http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/0 ... -all-time/
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby behappyalways » Sun Jan 25, 2015 6:25 pm

A good watch



Felix Zulauf: Deflation Will Sink Stocks
http://finance.yahoo.com/video/felix-zu ... 04323.html
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Re: Felix Zulauf

Postby behappyalways » Sat Feb 21, 2015 1:44 pm

Felix Zulauf Macro Views
•Bearish Stocks – Deflation Coming. 15%+ Stock Correction in Spring 2015.
•2015 Will be Good Year for Traders Because of High Volaility
•Oil Decline is bad for the Economy as Oil-Jobs are High Paying
•Bullish USD January
•Expects USD Correction between Spring and Middle-year
•Expects Strong USD again from late 2015 to until late 2016.
•US Bond yields to go down – to 2% or even less
•Short Singaporean Dollar
http://www.octafinance.com/felix-zulauf/
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