John Hussman ( Hussman Funds)

[winston]

HUSSMAN: IT'S AN AWFUL TIME TO INVEST by Cullen Roche

John Hussman is describing the current market environment as being comparable to past historical occurrences when it was an awful time to invest. In his latest market commentary he writes:

Importantly, the market is again characterized by an extreme set of conditions that we’ve previously associated with a Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest.

The rare instances we've seen this syndrome historically are reviewed in that previous weekly comment. They include the 1972-73 and 1987 market peaks, and several instances since 1998.

The more recent instances of this syndrome are shown by the blue bands on the chart below. Note that each of the separate instances in the 1999-2000 period were followed in short order by intermediate market declines of between 10-18%, and of course, ultimately by a plunge of more than 50% in 2000-2002.

Likewise, the 2007 instance was followed in short order by a correction of nearly 10%, and a few months later by a plunge of more than 50% in 2007-2009.

The more recent instances in 2010 and 2011 have also been followed by substantial market selloffs in each case, though with a longer lag in 2011 (due to ongoing QE2 operations).

Aggressive monetary policy did not prevent the ultimate declines, though massive central bank interventions have undoubtedly helped to short-circuit the more violent follow-through that occurred in 1973-1974, 1987, 2000-2002, and 2007-2009, at least to-date.

http://pragcap.com/hussman-its-an-awful-time-to-invest

[winston]

HUSSMAN CAN’T MAKE IT ANY CLEARER – GET THE F%$K OUT!!!!

You’ve been warned.

This is a must read piece by John Hussman.

Here are the best snippets:

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=34441

[winston]

John Hussman Makes New U.S. Recession Call

Economist turned money manager John Hussman has become the first economist I’m aware of to opine that the United States has entered a fresh recession.

http://dailycapitalist.com/2012/06/24/j ... sion-call/

[winston]

Hussman: We Are at the Mouth of a Vortex by Cullen Roche

Here’s an interesting historical look into past instances that resemble the current market environment.

Unfortunately, I can’t say that I put a lot of weight into such a small data set, but it’s interesting nonetheless:


http://pragcap.com/hussman-we-are-at-th ... f-a-vortex

[winston]

Hussman: Stock Market’s Risk/Reward Profile Worst in 100 Years By Dan Weil

The return/risk profile of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has dropped to its lowest point of the last 100 years, according to mutual fund manager John Hussman.

That certainly points to an overvalued, overbullish market, he writes in his weekly commentary.

“All of this should make bells go off for anyone familiar with market history. Of all the investment adages that are being embraced as reasons to accept market risk, somehow the phrase ‘buy low, sell high’ is conspicuously absent.”

And that will almost certainly mean trouble for investors, Hussman says.

“In all of the present ebullience about quantitative easing with no ex-ante amount, . . . the market conditions we observe at present have been consistently associated with negative outcomes throughout history.”

To be sure, nothing new has happened, Hussman says.

“This is an extreme data point, but there has been no abrupt change; no sudden event; no major catalyst. We are no more defensive today than we were a week ago, because conditions have been in the most negative 0.5 percent of the data for months.”

One could argue that the Federal Reserve’s massive easing campaign is simply blowing a bubble in risk assets that will burst with grave consequences for the financial system.

And investors are embracing risk to attain income.

"The search for yield . . . may grow more intense," Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer of Bessemer Trust, tells The Wall Street Journal.


Source: Moneynews

[winston]

Hussman: 6 Indications This is a “Terrible Time to Accept a Significant Amount of Market Risk”
by Cullen Roche

John Hussman’s much more bearish than I am at this juncture and I think he’s been excessively bearish for a while now, but that doesn’t mean he will necessarily continue to be wrong.

In today’s note he highlighted 6 indicators that are consistent with a risk off environment:

“Put simply, my view is that the present is a terrible time to accept a significant amount of market risk. I certainly can’t provide a weighty argument to support the view that the market will advance or decline over the next week or the next month.

But there is strong precedent for extended market losses and bear markets following overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield syndromes – say, Shiller P/E above 18, S&P 500 at multi-year highs, 8% above its 200 day moving average, close to its upper Bollinger bands (2 standard deviations above 20-period averages) on weekly and monthly resolutions, Treasury yields above 20-26 weeks earlier, and low bearish sentiment relative to bullish sentiment, all of which were observed in late-1972, July-August 1987, in 2000, in 2007, and early this month.”

http://pragcap.com/hussman-6-indication ... arket-risk

[winston]

Capitulation Everywhere by John P. Hussman

“Even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable will power to keep from following the crowd.”
- Benjamin Graham

“Human beings desperately want to belong, but, they also desperately want to understand the environment around them. Often, the desire to belong and the desire to know the truth conflict.

The idea of the majority view or the ‘mainstream,’ gives people the sense that they are a part of a group, and at the same time, gives them the illusion of being informed.”

- Brandon Smith

The bears are gone, extinct, vanished. Among the ones remaining, many are people whom even I would consider to be either permabears or nut-cases.

And yet, the historical evidence for major defensiveness has rarely been stronger.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130128.htm

[winston]

The Endgame is Forced Liquidation by John P. Hussman

“The stock market isn't the only thing that has set records this spring.

Barron's semiannual Big Money poll of professional investors also is setting a record -- for bullishness, that is.

In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks -- an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years.”

Rule o’ Thumb: When the cover of a major financial magazine features a cartoon of a bull leaping through the air on a pogo stick, it’s probably about time to cash in the chips.

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130422.htm

[winston]

The ‘Expert’ Who Predicted The Last 2 Crashes, Just Predicted This…

By Michael Snyder

Source: The Economic Collapse Blog

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/07 ... cted-this/

[winston]

One smart stock market analyst thinks this is where we're headed ... (gulp)

By Henry Blodget

Crashes develop over many months.

And the "crash" itself — the period of massive, near-vertical market losses — generally starts after the market is already down about 15%.

A 50% crash would not even be the worst-case scenario. It would just be a normal correction from valuations we reached in 2015.

The "worst-case scenario," meanwhile, would take us down 75%.

Source: Business Insider

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-smart ... 25510.html