David Rosenberg

Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Thu May 24, 2012 6:42 am

On Growing Tensions, Spreading Global Downturn And A Dead-End Greek Resolution by Tyler Durden

There are no clear winners from a Greek exit unless you are long confusion, turmoil and uncertainty.

The country faces a depression no matter what it does or doesn't do — though reclaiming control over its currency and monetary policy could end up having long-run competitive benefits.

The country would likely need a 30-40% devaluation to put its economy on a more competitive footing.

The financial disruption, based on many estimates I have seen, would cost Europe something in the order of 2-2.5% of lost output. G

reek's total public and private external liabilities amount to $540 billion U.S. dollars — the ECB, the IMF, banks and a swath of other foreign creditors would suffer deep losses.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/growing-t ... resolution?
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Wed Jun 13, 2012 8:58 am

ROSENBERG THE PERMA-BULL? by Cullen Roche

Now here’s some commentary that will catch your eye.

Long time bear David Rosenberg says there is light at the end of the tunnel and that he might be bullish as early as Thanksgiving of this year.


http://pragcap.com/rosenberg-the-perma-bull
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:52 pm

consistent ...

Rosenberg: “We Are Living In A Modern Day Depression” By Jeff Harding

http://dailycapitalist.com/2012/06/27/r ... more-21245
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:23 am

The world is ending. Everything is collapsing. Go hide in a cave and come out in 20 years ..

US Economy Still Reeling From 2008 Aftershocks: Rosenberg By: Jean Chua

The unprecedented wealth destruction in the U.S. caused by the 2008 recession resembles an earthquake of 7 or 8 on the Richter scale and the country is still reeling from its aftershocks, says David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From 2007 to 2009, median U.S. household net worth collapsed 39 percent and “this wealth collapse was the equivalent of an earthquake measuring 7 or 8 on the Richter scale,” Rosenberg wrote in an editorial in the Financial Times on Thursday.

He added that “earthquakes are followed by aftershocks, which is exactly what has provided the biggest hurdle for the post-recession healing phase we have been in for the past three years.”

Yields on 30-Year Treasurys could plunge to 2 percent, a level unseen since the early 1940s, he predicts, from 2.61 percent on Wednesday.

Suffering the most will be baby boomers, who are now entering their mid-60s and who are at the “epicenter” of this collapse in net worth. Already, household net worth per capita is 15 per cent or $100,000 shy of where it was five years ago and ultra-low interest rates are punishing those who save in bank deposits or money market funds.

“The median age of the boomer is 55 going on 56 and retirement is the darkness at the end of the tunnel,” Rosenberg said. “The trend towards second jobs, do-it-yourself, private labels, dollar stores, maintaining your existing vehicle, downsizing property needs, cocooning and frugality will continue unabated.”

Another uncertainty that will weigh on the U.S. consumers and businesses is fiscal policy.

“Nobody knows what their effective tax rate is going to be next year so they cannot plan,” Rosenberg said. “When you model that uncertainty in economic terms, you end up with higher liquidity ratios in business and rising savings rates in the personal sector. This damps spending growth and spending is what gross domestic product is all about.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48455676
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:48 am

The world is ending ! The world is ending !

David Rosenberg: The Coming Negative Export Shock by Cullen Roche

David Rosenberg has an indicator for us here that isn’t too mainstream.

He says the correlation between exports and new orders could prove prescient in forecasting a recession in the US:

“I think that there may be a time, before too long, when we will walk into the office to find that they US prints a negative GDP reading on the back of a negative export shock that does not appear to be in any forecast – let alone the consensus.

Look at the pattern of ISM export orders:
- April 59
- May 53.5
- June 47.5
- July 46.5

This is called a pattern. And this is a level that coincided with the two prior recessions.

As the chart below vividly illustrates, there is a significant 81% correlation between annual growth in total US exports and the ISM new orders index (with a 4 month lag).

So either the market has already priced this in or it is going to end up coming as a very big surprise….”

http://pragcap.com/david-rosenberg-the- ... port-shock
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Fri Aug 17, 2012 6:35 am

Nothing from this guy lately. Is it because the market is rallying ?
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Tue Sep 25, 2012 6:46 am

[b]Rosenberg: Earnings Expectations are “Far Too Optimistic” by Cullen Roche

David Rosenberg’s latest contains some good insights on the current state of corporate earnings.

Rosenberg says earnings are far too optimistic and likely to be ratcheted down.

It’s very early in earnings season, but this is a trend we’ve already noticed in some bellwether names like FedEx and Norfolk Southern.


http://pragcap.com/rosenberg-earnings-e ... optimistic
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:20 am

Rosenberg: The Best Advice I Can Give You…. by Cullen Roche

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff catches a lot of flak over his macro bearish views, but he’s also offered some excellent insights over the last few years on micro positioning.

In his latest note he says “cash is not king” and offers a few alternatives.

His best idea in this section:

http://pragcap.com/rosenberg-the-best-a ... n-give-you
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:40 pm

On Bloomberg:-

He likes Corporate Bonds.
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Re: David Rosenberg

Postby winston » Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:37 am

Interest rates have been low for the past few years. So why the change in position now ?


David Rosenberg: The Most Compelling Argument for Equities by Cullen Roche

David Rosenberg hasn’t exactly been the biggest equity market bull. So, when he highlights the most compelling argument for equities I think it’s worth listening. Rosenberg says the low interest rate environment continues to force investors into equities:

“The Fed has also completely altered the relationship between stocks and bonds by nurturing an environment of ever deeper negative real interest rates. Therein lies the rub. The economy and earnings are weak, and getting weaker, but the interest rate used to discount the future earnings stream keeps getting more and more negative, and that in turn raises future profit expectations.

It’s that simple. And the fact that the S&P dividend yield is triple the yield in the belly of the Treasury curve has also lifted the allure of equities, or at least those that have compelling dividend yield, growth and coverage characteristics.

I think that for those investors who are running into cash or cash-like instruments or government bonds in the name of safety need to realize that interest income is in a full-fledged bear market and dividend income is in a massive bull market.

This is again at least partly related to what the Fed is doing because its incursion into the fixed-income market has dragged five-year Treasury yield down to 60 bps, at a time when the dividend yield in the stock market is closer to 2.3%, for a 170 bps gap we haven’t seen since 1958.”


http://pragcap.com/david-rosenberg-the- ... r-equities
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