Barton Biggs

[winston]

Biggs: U.S. Stocks Poised to Surge 15 Percent By: Julie Crawshaw

Contrarian investor Barton Biggs, managing partner at Traxis Partners LLC, expects stocks to soon jump.

“I think we’ve got a move of 10 to 15 percent in the next couple of months here in the U.S. and 15 to 20 percent n the emerging markets,” Biggs says.

“Earnings are coming in very strong and I think the U.S. and global economy are gaining momentum as we come into spring this year,” he recently told Bloomberg.

“I think there’s too much bearishness … everybody’s seeing bubbles everywhere. Maybe they’re going to be right (but) I think in the shorter run, things are going up,” Biggs says.

Biggs likes emerging market stocks now, especially China and India.

In the United States, he says that big-cap quality stocks are the cheapest part of the market.

He also thinks the “new normal” envisioned by Pimco co-chair Mohammed El Erian has been erroneously accepted as conventional wisdom, which he says is usually wrong.

“I don’t know what the environment’s going to be, but it’s not going to be the ‘new normal,’” he says.

The “new mix” is out to topple the “new normal” as the paradigm for U.S.'s economic future, Business Week reports.

The 5.9 percent annualized surge in fourth-quarter growth — the fastest since 2003 — was powered more by exports and business investment than the traditional drivers of consumption and housing.

This new mix of demand will boost the economy by 3.7 percent in 2010 and pave the way for 3.5 percent annual average increases thereafter, says Joseph Carson, an economist at AllianceBernstein.

http://moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Biggs-U ... /id/352815

[LenaHuat]

BB's bullish take on equities:
barton-biggs-says-u-s-stocks-may-rise-10-to-15%

No one tracks BB? I do.

[millionairemind]

BB's bullish take on equities:
barton-biggs-says-u-s-stocks-may-rise-10-to-15%

No one tracks BB? I do.

Lena,

The 10% move is almost over liao.

mm

[LenaHuat]

Hi MM
Yes, U are right and I'm waiting for him to speak when the 15% is hit

[iam802]

Seems like Bloomberg is recycling their content.

---
Biggs on 20% growth again.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... hares.html

May 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could jump as much as 20 percent, led by technology companies, as the global economy rebounds from Europe’s debt crisis, said Barton Biggs.

“I’m betting the next move in the U.S. market is going to be up 15 to 20 percent,” Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP and whose flagship fund returned three times the industry average last year, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “I would just point out that the world is having a strong economic recovery, and so is Europe.”

Biggs recommended buying U.S. stocks last year when benchmark indexes sank to the lowest levels since the 1990s. He did not give a timeframe or refer to any specific stock index in his comments today. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.1 percent to 1,155.10 as of 11:56 a.m. in Tokyo.

The stock gauge climbed 4.4 percent yesterday, the most in more than a year, after European policy makers announced an almost $1 trillion loan package to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. The S&P 500’s advance followed an 8.7 percent slide since April 23 -- and the biggest weekly retreat since the start of the bull market in March 2009 -- on concern Europe’s leaders weren’t doing enough to avert the threat to global credit markets.

An index of the S&P 500 Index’s computer hardware companies was the biggest contributor to yesterday’s advance.
“There are plenty of opportunities in the U.S.,” Biggs said, adding that shares in drug developers look cheap and that property companies are also attractive. “It’s by no means a foregone conclusion that we have a crisis every three years and, my God, that the world is coming to an end. I don’t believe that’s what’s happening at all.”
‘Severe Tensions’

Governments of the 16-euro nations agreed May 9 to lend as much as 750 billion euros ($958 billion) to the most-indebted countries to resolve the region’s debt crisis, while the European Central Bank said it will counter “severe tensions” in “certain” markets by purchasing government and private debt.

Europe’s debt problems illustrated the need for nations in the region to evolve towards a federal system of government capable of enforcing more “discipline” on countries, said Biggs.

“In the long run, Europe will have to become similar to the United States,” he said.
--Editors: Nick Gentle, Darren Boey.

[LenaHuat]

Hi iam802
Thanks a million for this update.
I disagree with BB this round. Looking at the history of WWI and WWII, I don't see Europeans aspiring for a federal system like the US. Someone on Bloomberg bemoaned that this EU 1 trillion package is bigger than the Marshall Plan for WWII reconstruction of Europe, even after adjustments for inflation

The US is recovering, albeit very slowly and the new structure for her to grow by leaps and bounds are not in sight. I don't see the next big technological or medical leap that will create immense wealth for the country. Labor restructuring will be painful for the next 3 years at least. Large US corporations derive substantial revenue from Europe. If Europe stumbles, well earnings get hit.

China will slow down considerably. President Hu is stepping down in 2012 and the CCP has got lots of pressing social issues that must be placed under control before he leaves the stage. The Gini coefficient for China now stands at 0.47.

[profittaker]

Hi Lena, I learn something new from this forum everyday!

The Gini coefficient for China now stands at 0.47.

While developed European nations and Canada tend to have Gini indices between 24 and 36, the United States' and Mexico's Gini indices are both above 40, indicating that the United States and Mexico have greater inequality. Using the Gini can help quantify differences in welfare and compensation policies and philosophies. However it should be borne in mind that the Gini coefficient can be misleading when used to make political comparisons between large and small countries (see criticisms section).

The Gini index for the entire world has been estimated by various parties to be between 56 and 66.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gini_since_WWII.svg

[winston]

Biggs: U.S. Stocks Poised to Surge 15 Percent By: Julie Crawshaw

Contrarian investor Barton Biggs, managing partner at Traxis Partners LLC, expects stocks to soon jump.

“I think we’ve got a move of 10 to 15 percent in the next couple of months here in the U.S. and 15 to 20 percent n the emerging markets,” Biggs says.

[millionairemind]

Barton Biggs Says Stock Market Set to ‘Pop’ in Days (Update1)
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By Shani Raja and Susan Li

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock markets are oversold and may rally strongly over the next few days, said investor Barton Biggs.

“I think they’re going to stabilize in this general area, and then we’re going to have a significant move to the upside,” Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP and whose flagship fund returned three times the industry average last year, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is down 10 percent in May, poised for its worst month since February 2009, as credit- ratings downgrades of Greece, Portugal and Spain added to concern some European nations will struggle to fund deficits.

“The market is very, very oversold, and I think we’re going to have a big pop to the upside some time in the next couple of days,” said Biggs. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see us go to a new recovery high, just to make everybody squirm.”

The S&P 500 lost 0.6 percent yesterday as reports China may review investments in European government bonds spurred concern the credit crisis will worsen. The China Investment Corp. is considering lowering the percentage of assets it allocates toward Europe, Reuters cited Gao Xiqing, president of the sovereign wealth fund, as saying.

“The European concerns are serious, and I take them seriously,” Biggs said in the interview. “I just don’t think that the worst is going to happen.”

Biggs recommended buying U.S. stocks last year when benchmark indexes sank to the lowest levels since the 1990s. On March 22 this year, Biggs told Bloomberg TV that U.S. stocks had the potential to rally a further 10 percent. The S&P 500 has shed 8.4 percent since then.

[LenaHuat]

“The market is very, very oversold, and I think we’re going to have a big pop to the upside some time in the next couple of days,” said Biggs. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see us go to a new recovery high, just to make everybody squirm.”

Today is day 1.
Ooops, according to iam802, tonite is going to be a long nite.