Anthony Bolton

Anthony Bolton

Postby iam802 » Sun Oct 05, 2008 7:41 pm

Anthony Bolton: I’m buying shares once again

http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/new ... &ea=177267


Anthony Bolton, the legendary ex-Fidelity fund manager, says he is spending his own money to buy shares again in the market.

‘I have bought shares in the last couple of weeks for the first time for some time,’ he told the BBC Today programme. ‘I see a lot of value in certain areas of the market.’

‘I have been somebody who for quite a while has been cautious about the equity markets. In fact I started my caution about two years ago – I was a bit early. I have to say the events of the last few weeks for the first time have made me feel more optimistic that we are getting near the low in the markets.’

Other highlights from the interview:

On the financial crisis: ‘Well I have to say I haven’t seen anything quite like this and the credit crisis that led to the banking crisis has some similarities with the 1970s which I did experience but the fact that it’s global and the extent of it is quite different.’

On whether it can get worse: ‘It can certainly get worse although I think a lot of the ingredients are now there to restore confidence – at the heart of banking is confidence

On bank deposit guarantees: ‘We’ve seen that come in Ireland and one of the problems in this global world that we live in is it’s quite difficult for authorities to do it in one market and not to have effects on other markets. So I think it’s possible that will happen here as well. It would certainly restore confidence thought it might be quite a costly move.’

On investing: ‘Investing in the stock market at first looks so easy – you buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high. But when you actually live though it it’s much more difficult. All the environment tries to make you do the opposite of what it should do – it sucks you in when markets are high and the world looks wonderful.

‘I think the real lesson in times like this is not be shaken out when the environment is very uncertain because those are the conditions that make the lows in stock markets.

‘I’ve found over the years that investing is about buying the fundamentals of companies as investments. But the stock market is also a place of fashions. It is a voting machine as much as a weighing machine. So when everyone votes one way to me that suggests risks and that’s not a good thing. On the other hand, at times like the moment when people are very negative, I want to be a contrarian and go against that.’

On recession in the UK: ‘That is the reasons that share prices are so low, they already have factored in a recession.’

On the Lloyds TSB/HBOS deal: ‘My personal view on this is that it will succeed and go through on the original terms. I think most parties would like it to succeed on that basis. I think it will be a very good thing for the banking market generally and I think the combined company will be an attractive investment.’

1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby kennynah » Sun Oct 05, 2008 9:49 pm

any relations to michael Bolton?
anyways, how would one define a right trade? Some say, it's one that makes n so those that dont are wrong.
Perhaps, like many here, the above definition cannot be further from the truth. In this regard, it is not the end result that determines if a good or bad trade was made. Rather, the definition of a poor or proper trade is one measured by the level of planning, entry execution n consideration to risk management, adjustments n exit strategies.
Hence, good trades will at times fail to profit. But on balance, well thought out trades will benefit from long term success term vs bad ones that inconsistently turn in one off winners n offer false sense of correct trading

Relating this to the likes of above article, there's really no right or wrong take on going Long at this juncture. There's only right n wrong trades
I hope to hear your views
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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby iam802 » Sun Oct 05, 2008 11:03 pm

You probably answer your own questions when you mention about entry execution, risk mgnt and exit strategies.

Those are always the necessary steps regardless if one is doing short term trades or FA investment etc.

Every individual's trade is different because the criteria for success is different.

We can have 3 person trading or buying (or selling) the same stock, and all 3 can have different timeframe and objective.

To the day trader, he may sell short at the first rally and buy back during the pullback.

To the guy who intend to hold it for long term, he may enter the same trade and hold it for 3-5 years etc.

And I think Anthony Bolton did mention, you can pick up some good stocks now (go long)...but at the same time be prepared to short it .

I think the key point is : Have a plan.

And in your plan, put in place strategies for offensive and defensive moves.

So, you see... I go one big round and never answer anything, right?
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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The Ichimoku Thread | Option Strategies Thread | Japanese Candlesticks Thread
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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby kennynah » Mon Oct 06, 2008 1:01 pm

your answer is the best 802.... as in all things in life...almost nothing is clearly in black and white... they are in shades of grey...

i particularly appreciate your view on "time frame"

thanks.
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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby millionairemind » Sun Dec 14, 2008 12:15 pm

Anthony Bolton calls share rally in new year
Commercial property and the banks will lead new bull surge, predicts veteran stockpicker
Kathryn Cooper, Money Editor

ANTHONY BOLTON, one of the City’s most respected fund managers, has urged investors to prepare for a new bull market early next year, led by banks and property stocks.

The veteran investor, who ran Fidelity’s Special Situations fund for 28 years before standing down in 2007, believes that the FTSE 100’s November low of 3,781 will prove to be the bottom of the downturn, with shares rallying sharply in the first three months of next year.

Bolton also called the bottom of the commercial-property market, in which real-estate stocks slumped 47% over the past 12 months. He said that he would be happy to buy commercial property at yields of 7.5%, despite warnings from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors last week that prices could fall a further 25%.

Speaking to The Sunday Times about the investment outlook for 2009, the stock-picker said that all the signals he usually uses to pinpoint a rally were in place.

“Everything I need to see for a bottom is there. Valuations look cheap and you often get this kind of high intra-day volatility at a turning point,” he said.

“All the pieces are in place for a rally in the first quarter. The first stage of the bull market will be quite strong and be followed by a long period of consolidation. In the long run the market could return to its peak [6,930 in December 1999] but it could take quite some time.”

He would buy a basket of UK bank stocks at current levels, including those bailed out by the taxpayer – Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds TSB and Hali-fax Bank of Scotland.

He said: “Sentiment has become extreme and governments have strengthened their balance sheets. One or two may have to raise additional capital, but that is why you should own a basket.”

On commercial property, he said that yields of more than 4 percentage points above Bank rate more than compensated for the risk that some tenants might go bust.

Central to Bolton’s optimism is his view that while the recession will be as bad as during the 1980s and 1990s, it will not be as severe as the 1930s.

“The economy and unemployment are going to get worse but markets tend to bottom six to 12 months before the economy. It is the worst financial crisis I have ever experienced, but governments are doing more than I have ever seen them do before,” he said.

Bolton expects next year’s rally to be led by financial stocks and so-called consumer cyclicals such as retailers.

“Commodity and mining shares were the main players of the last bull market and you don’t find that what has led the last bull market leads the next one,” he said.

Bolton does not always get it right – he first said he saw value in the markets at the end of September. The Footsie then fell a further 14%.

“I wasn’t going to get right the week or the month, but I hope I got the right quarter. I made some more personal investments in October and again in November,” he said.
"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he has been wrong" - Bernard Baruch

Disclaimer - The author may at times own some of the stocks mentioned in this forum. All discussions are NOT to be construed as buy/sell recommendations. Readers are advised to do their own research and analysis.
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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby winston » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:02 am

And how much does he know about Chinese shares and their peculiarities ?

==========================================

Simon Read: Be wary of Bolton's Chinese comeback tour

The investment industry welcomed the news last week that fabled Fidelity fund manager Anthony Bolton is returning to the fray. What may have surprised many is his decision to move to Hong Kong and manage a China fund.

Bolton says China's growth story is an almost unprecedented investment opportunity. He believes that China is in the first year of a multi-year bull-run and it's that opportunity which has persuaded him to return to fund management.

He has a fantastic track record, managing the Fidelity Special Situations fund for 28 years during which he achieved an annualised return of 19.5 per cent, compared to just 13.5 per cent for the FTSE All-Share Index. Anyone who stuck with him from the start – in December 1979 – with a speculative £1,000 would have seen their cash grow to a decent £148,200.

But investors excited by the prospect of Bolton's return and eager to invest in his new fund – which launches next spring – should think carefully. Would you have invested in China anyway? The answer for many, I suspect, is no.

For that reason I would wait before backing Bolton on this occasion. One City trader compared his return to that of a prize fighter making one last comeback. While I hope that Bolton does score a knock-out, there is clearly a risk that this is one fight too far for the fund manager.

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/spen ... 30380.html
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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby winston » Wed Nov 10, 2010 8:21 pm

Fidelity's Bolton Defies China Bears With 27% New Fund Return By William Mellor

Two of his picks, The United Laboratories International Holdings Ltd. and Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd, have almost quadrupled in value since the beginning of the year.

“One of the things I like about China is that there are some great skeptics out there,” he says just before a July signing session for a Chinese edition of his second book, titled “Investing Against the Tide,” (Pearson Education, 2009). “If we were sitting here and China was everyone’s favorite and valuations were high, I would have to temper my optimism.”

Bolton says China’s economy will be driven in the future more by domestic consumption and services than the exports that made it the workshop of the world. Consequently, he’s buying retailers, auto companies, drug makers and, in defiance of concerns about a potential credit crisis, financial services companies.

Bolton’s confidence stems partly from the conviction that small and medium-sized Chinese companies are less well researched than their Western counterparts and offer big growth opportunities.

In a country that’s now home to some of the world’s largest companies, Bolton has dug out such little-known stocks as CNinsure Inc., an insurance agent and broker in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou that trades on the Nasdaq Stock Market and has a market value of $1.2 billion.

The stock, which has risen 20 percent this year, has featured among Bolton’s top 10 monthly holdings alongside more- predictable bets such as China Mobile Ltd. and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s biggest phone company and bank, respectively.

Bolton says he’s excited about CNinsure partly because it reminds him of MLP AG, a German insurance company that he successfully bet on in the 1980s and 1990s.

“History never repeats itself,” he says, using a Mark Twain bromide that’s become a favorite Boltonism. “But it sometimes rhymes.”

Stellar Performer

More dramatic has been the performance of another smaller company featured in Bolton’s top 10 in August and September: United Laboratories, a Hong Kong-listed maker of generic antibiotics and insulin for diabetes sufferers with a market cap of HK$21 billion. Its shares soared 290 percent this year to Nov. 9, making it the best-performing company in the 320-member Hang Seng Composite Index.

“I’m lucky,” Bolton says. “I did not get the whole move, but I got a decent slice of it.”

Bolton’s fourth-biggest holding as of Sept. 30 was carmaker Brilliance China, which manufactures BMW 3 and 5 series sedans in a joint venture with Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and minibuses in partnership with Toyota Motor Corp. Its shares have shot up 267 percent this year to make it the second-best performing Hong Kong composite index stock after United Laboratories.

Although Bolton says he focuses on small and medium-sized enterprises, he’s also invested in some of the world’s corporate giants. Almost nine percent of the fund has been used to buy shares in the world’s third and sixth biggest banks, HSBC Holdings Plc and Bank of China Ltd. Another 4.5 percent is riding on China Mobile, the planet’s biggest phone carrier.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-0 ... eturn.html
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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby winston » Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:03 pm

UPDATE 1-Fidelity guru Bolton gets rude awakening in China

* Fidelity China fund buys back 350,000 shares
* Fund's shares are down about 25 pct this yr, underperform mkt
* Shares are at a discount to NAV, which is down about 20% this yr

By Nishant Kumar

HONG KONG, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Fidelity's China fund has been forced to buy back a portion of its shares to bolster investor confidence in the faltering fund, in a stern test of star manager Anthony Bolton.

Bolton, whose contrarian bets made him a top UK fund manager for over two decades, moved to Hong Kong last year to manage the Fidelity China Special Situations fund .

The fund, launched to great fanfare in April 2010 invites prospective investors to "Experience the changing balance of world economic powers" in a banner splashed across the top of its website.

But with its underperformance -- the fund trails its benchmark index this year by about 5 percentage points -- investors have started to worry more about the changing balance of their holdings.

They recently pushed the share price below its net asset value, meaning some are willing to exit the fund below its market value.

In a sign that Bolton is preparing for the long haul, Fidelity China said late on Thursday it bought back shares of the London-listed fund, which has a market capitalisation of about $920 million.

The move comes after the closed-end fund lost about a fourth of its share price this year, underperforming the market and peers.

Its net asset value is now down about a fifth. By comparison, the benchmark MSCI China Index has lost about 15 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/ ... 9V20110909
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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby winston » Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:02 pm

Hmmm.... maybe we're getting close to the bottom, especially when rock-star fund managers are struggling ......

==========================

Anthony Bolton, the famous fund manager who launched his China Special Situations Fund amid much fanfare earlier this year, is hiring 5 external research firms to spot China groups that are overstating their sales growth.

He said the challenge of “can you believe what you’re told” and “are the figures real figures” is “definitely an issue”.

Bolton’s action suggests the heavy mist overhanging China stocks, including the S Chips is unlikely to lift anytime soon, eg by debunking the whole myth of stocks being attractive simply because they sport very low PEs. (Several S Chips are on low PEs, at least for now or until the denominator were to drop drastically.)

Source: Lim & Tan
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Re: Anthony Bolton

Postby winston » Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:25 pm

So how much has this "expert" lost already ? 38% last year ?

Fidelity’s Bolton Says China Hard Landing Unlikely, Sees Value in Stocks By Bei Hu

China’s slowing economy is unlikely to have a hard landing and cheap stock valuations may pave the way for “a big move” in Chinese markets, said Anthony Bolton, who manages the Fidelity China Special Situations Fund. (FCSS)

Economic growth in China may slow to between 7 percent and 8 percent this year, Bolton, president of investments at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, which manages or administers $208 billion of assets, told reporters in Hong Kong today.

Fidelity is now favoring companies that will benefit from discretionary consumer spending, Raymond Ma, manager of Fidelity’s China Consumer Fund, said at the same briefing.

“What I see is very attractive valuations today in China against history,” Fidelity’s Bolton said. “It will become apparent in the next 12 months that the house of cards view of China that some international investors have is going to be wrong. That will lead to quite a reassessment of the international views on China.”

The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 22 percent last year as China’s central bank raised interest rates and banks’ reserve ratios to curb inflation. The index trades at 9.3 times estimated earnings, near the record low of 8.8 times reached on Jan. 5, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Chinese authorities may further ease credit tightening after inflation, particularly food price increases, slowed recently, said Stephen Ma, manager of Fidelity’s China Opportunities Fund and Taiwan Fund. Companies in China still plan to raise salaries for workers amid slowing growth, which will boost consumption, according to Raymond Ma.

Special Situations

Bolton’s Fidelity China Special Situations Plc tumbled 38 percent last year, compared with a 20 percent decline by the MSCI China Index.

The China fund’s performance was hurt by its focus on small- and medium-capitalization stocks that tend to experience sharper falls in a market downturn, said Bolton.

Stock swings were more extreme and the challenges faced by some companies more serious than he had expected, he said.

The Financial Times reported in August that Bolton had suggested he may not stay as the manager of the China special situations fund after April 2013.

Bolton said today he may make a decision in the first half of this year about whether to stay on beyond that date as manager of the fund

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-1 ... tocks.html
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