InvestIdeas

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Commodities and investment guru Jim Rogers is still bullish on commodities, in particular agriculture, even as investors are regaining some confidence in the equities market and are hopeful that the worst of the U.S. subprime fallout is over.

"I''m not buying financial stocks and am short on banks...We''ve just had the worst credit bubble in our time, and this sort of bubble doesn''t just clear in a year or two," said Rogers at a press briefing Thursday.

Rogers said he''s still long on gold and plans to buy more if prices consolidate further to $750-$800 an ounce.

"I''ve started to think about buying base metals such as zinc and nickel, which have recently fallen around 50%. If they fall further, I''ll be buying," he added.

Crude oil, which Wednesday reached an intraday record high of $123.93 a barrel, is going to go "very much higher," said Rogers, and could well breach $150 a barrel.

"No new major oil fields have been discovered in the past 40 years," said Rogers.

Rogers started the Rogers International Commodity Index in 1998. Over the past 10 years, the index has posted a return of 354% compared with the Reuters-CRB Commodity Index''s 144%.

Fixing My Big Investment Mistake This Year
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Today, I'll share with you the biggest mistake I made this year.

I didn't follow the "secret." It's a simple secret. And I should have known better.

This secret is important... It is the only way I know for you to really make ridiculous gains from investing without taking on crazy risks. The man I first heard the idea from actually did make ridiculous gains following it...

Jim Rogers made more than 4,000% in his Quantum Fund in the 1970s, when the overall stock market only rose 47%. (Then he retired in 1980, at age 37.)

Jim's track record when he ran the Quantum Fund may be the best of anyone, ever. He was interviewed after he retired for a book called Market Wizards (which first came out in the late 1980s). In that book, he said something that has stuck with me since:

Markets often rise higher than you think is possible,
and fall lower than you can possibly imagine.

This was a revolutionary idea for me, at the time – a true "secret" to ridiculous gains.

Using his own secret, Jim Rogers could have bought oil at $13 a barrel a few years ago, and he could still be holding it at $130 a barrel today. Your typical investor would have sold somewhere along the way. But not Jim.

(If anyone actually did buy at $13 and hold to $130, it was probably Jim. He started his Rogers Commodity Index Fund back in 1998, when oil bottomed, and he's still a commodities bull today.)

In the mid-1990s, Jim and I sat next to each other at a black-tie dinner. We talked for hours. He struck me as one of the most original thinkers I'd met. After that dinner, I went back and re-read his chapter in Market Wizards.

I realized his quote, "Markets often rise higher than you think is possible, and fall lower than you can possibly imagine" was incredibly powerful. Once I adopted it, it allowed my readers to make huge fortunes...

The most recent huge winner is Seabridge Gold. I recommended shares of Seabridge at $2.64 to my subscribers a few years ago. Today it's up to $23. We knew the markets could go higher than we imagined, so we didn't get out too early. I might not have had the conviction to hold it that long without help from Jim Rogers.

Jim Rogers' quote has made me – and my subscribers – large amounts of money. But this year, my biggest mistake was forgetting the other half of the quote: Markets can fall lower than you can possibly imagine.

Banks and homebuilders – two things I believe are cheap and hated – have fallen lower than I could have possibly imagined. I bought in too early. I thought I saw a glimmer of an uptrend. So far I've been wrong. Jim's rule was right, as always. So right now, I'm watching my trailing stops closely on these.

If you want to make a whole lot of money investing, you have to stick to your rules. Jim Rogers' rule is one of the most difficult to stick with... but it is one of the most profitable.

Oil moving up 900% is a great example of the market rising higher than you think possible. And financial stocks and housing, unfortunately, are a good example on the downside.

"Markets often rise higher than you think is possible, and fall lower than you can possibly imagine."

This rule will make you a lot of money. And both halves of the rule are equally important.

Source: Daily Wealth

The World's Cheapest Stock Market is Ready to Soar
By Tom Dyson

Jim Rogers picked up the phone and called a German stockbroker. He asked the broker to buy him a portfolio of German stocks...

"I think you're about to have the biggest bull market you've had in two or three generations," Rogers told the broker, noting he planned to hold the stocks for three years.

The request confused the broker. Normally, clients would ask him for research or his opinion. He wasn't used to Rogers' forthright manner. Besides, Germany had been in a bear market for two decades. The broker couldn't believe anyone would be crazy enough to put so much money into German stocks.

"The broker was dumbfounded," says Rogers. "He thought I was a madman."

It was 1982. The German stock market crumbled in 1962 and had traded sideways ever since. Meanwhile, the German economy had boomed, and companies multiplied their earnings, revenues, and profits.

The situation caught Jim Rogers' eye...

"So there was basic value there," Rogers said in a 1989 interview. "If there is very good value, then I'm probably not going to lose much money even if I'm wrong."

Buying value is a great strategy... but it doesn't work without timing. For instance, Rogers could have bought into Germany five years earlier on the same theory... and sat on dead money for five years.

So Rogers waits for a catalyst. In this case, the catalyst was an election. Rogers knew Germany would throw out the socialists and elect the pro-business Christian Democrat party. He figured German firms would pile money into the economy if the Christian Democrats won the election.

Rogers was right. The pro-business party won the election, and between 1982 and 1985, German stocks nearly tripled.

Jim Rogers is a legend. His book Investment Biker influenced me more than any other finance book I've ever read. I first picked it up 10 years ago, and I've followed Jim Rogers ever since. I've watched his interviews on television, read newspaper stories about him, and attended a couple of his lectures. He doesn't make many investments. And he's always forthright with his opinions. It's never hard to figure out what he's doing with his money.

I can tell you, Jim Rogers is never wrong. Just look at the two trades he's recommended so far this decade. In 1999, he started telling people to buy commodities. He set up an index to track commodities – the Rogers International Commodities Index – and published a book about commodities in 2004. The Rogers International Commodities Index is up 470% since inception.

China was his second trade of the decade. He's been talking up China since the early part of this decade, too. The Chinese stock market went up 400% between 2006 and 2007...

Now Jim is recommending a new trade.

He started investing in this idea in March. It was the first time in his life he'd ever bought a stock in this country. Then, in April, he told an audience he liked this country so much he'd like to live there. The local stock market jumped 2% when traders heard Rogers make these comments...

This stock market has lagged the rest of the world for 10 years. It's the cheapest stock market in the Datastream database of international stock indexes.

And we have a catalyst. Just like in Germany, a new political party recently won power in this country... And it promises to make major changes.

Jim Rogers tripled his money in Germany. I think he'll triple our money in this market, too. I'll tell you the name of the country in my next column.

Winston's Comment: Taiwan ?

Source: Daily Wealth

I think its Taiwan too. From fundsupermart unit trust selector, I noted that Taiwan is the worst performing fund for the last 10 years! This shows that Taiwan stock exchange has been on the side-ways for the last 10 years while regional indexes soar. There's also the positive political catalyst.
- More of this discussion in the Taiwan thread!

Winston,

If I recall correctly, you were already following Taiwan's news during the election period.

So, you must have positioned correctly. Huat already!

罗杰斯 （Jim Rogers）日前在造访台湾时强调
21世纪是中国人的世纪，繁荣不会只有21个月



罗杰斯：全球股市牛市已去，惟对内地股市仍乐观

据内地报引述商品大王罗杰斯表示，由於全球进入高通胀时代，股市牛市已寿终正寝，但对内地股市仍坚持乐观的看法。

他表示，看好的市场主要是投资5至10年的上升空间，并不在意4-5个月的短期表现。(财华社)

罗杰斯：牛市已去但看好中国 　　

尽管今年以来内地股市被“腰斩”，但一直唱多中国机会的杰姆·罗杰斯仍不改初衷。他表示，他看好的市场，主要是投资五至十年的成长空间，他不在意四五个月的短期表现。

由于全球进入高通胀时代，罗杰斯觉得“股市牛市已寿终正寝”，这点与他之前的合作伙伴索罗斯近期发表的观点颇为一致。不过，在对大中国区股市的看法上，罗杰斯仍坚持相对乐观的看法。


罗杰斯日前在造访台湾时强调，21世纪是中国人的世纪，繁荣不会只有21个月，今年的投资机会还是都在中国大陆及台湾。他虽然在台湾、中国大陆的投资都受到损失，但他持续看好两岸和平契机，发展中国家的股票他都卖了，只剩下中国大陆股和台股。


罗杰斯说，“如果你在1908年放空美国的话，也许有一个月或一年觉得自己聪明，但长远来看可能是你投资最大的错误！这就是我对中国大陆及台湾的看法。”他说，会发生金融风暴的地方是美国，劝大家像他一样抛掉美元资产。他同时认为，商品多头至少持续到2019年。


　　
杰姆·罗杰斯

　　1970年创建了投资基金量子基金。量子基金连续十年的年均收益率超过50％。1980年后，罗杰斯开始了自己的投资事业。目前已经成为全世界最伟大的投资家之一。

　　罗杰斯早在1999年环游地球时就在中国开了B股账户，到现在收获颇丰。由于他持续看好中国经济，并就中国股市发表了很多积极的评论，而前两年的大牛市行情也令他的观点得到印证，因此，在中国拥有众多拥趸。

　　坊间人士估计，目前他的出场费高达数十万元，加上他的书籍在中国大卖，这两块取得的收入很可能超过他投资内地股市的收入，因为他投资的只是部分B股，他的大部分投资是在海外上市的中国概念股。

罗杰斯投资三法则:不要别人告诉自己该怎么做　

面对风云莫测的市场，吉姆罗杰斯,这位投资界的重量级人物有什么独门妙计吗?我们可以从中学到什么？


一、独立思考法则 “我总是发现自己埋头苦读很有用处。如果我只按照自己所理解的行事，既容易又有利可图，而不是要别人告诉我该怎么做。”罗杰斯的投资理念就是寻找一些不被关注的股票：“当年我来中国的时候，所有的人都劝说我千万不要买B股，所以我当时就毫不犹豫地买了，事实证明并没有错。”
　
这意味着，每个人应该有自己的投资方式和理念，不管是投资股票还是货币或其他，当然独立思考的前提是要建立在对市场客观、深入研究的基础上。大部分人会随大流，而事实上很少有人能靠随大流发财。

　　二、绝不赔钱法则 “除非你真的了解自己在干什么，否则什么也别做。”“所以，我的忠告就是绝不赔钱，做自己熟悉的事，等到发现大好机会才投钱下去。”据此，我们可以得出这样的结论：要充分了解自己的财富管理人，比如所选择的基金公司是否值得托付，基金经理是否经历过熊市及牛市全面的洗礼，基
金产品长期的历史业绩是否优良，这些都是做好投资的重要前提。

　　三、静若处子法则 “投资的法则之一是袖手不管，除非真有重大事情发生。大部分的投资人总喜欢进进出出，找些事情做。他们可能会说‘看看我有多高明，又赚了3倍。’然后他们又去做别的事情，就是没有办法坐下来等待大势的自然发展。”罗杰斯对“试试手气”的说法很不以为然，这实际上是导致投资者投资失败的重要因素。(记者 胡芳)

　　（新华网 ）

Some1 please correct me if I am wrong, didn't Jim say to invest in China last year when SSE was around 5000 pts??? If that is the case, from the passage below, with SSE currently <2800 and he still has not invested, can we trust what he says in the media???

Or has he already sold his stake and now waiting to get in again??

Rogers Tells Investors Not to `Give Up' on China (Update3)

By Zhao Yidi

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, told investors not to ``give up'' on Chinese shares after the country's stock index fell almost 50 percent this year.

``Start buying when others say `never again','' Rogers, 65, said today at an investor conference in Nanjing. There is ``much money to be made'' from investments in Chinese stocks, he said.

China's CSI 300 Index has slumped 52 percent from its Oct. 16 peak on concern government measures to curb consumer prices will hurt earnings growth. Rogers, who first started buying Chinese stocks in 1999, said he hasn't sold any of his holdings.

``It's still a growth story in China,'' said Andrew Sullivan, a sales trader at Mainfirst Securities Hong Kong Ltd. ``It still has a good manufacturing industry.''

China's economy expanded 10.6 percent in the first quarter even as export growth cooled and industrial companies' profit growth slowed as oil and gas costs surged. Chinese stocks slumped yesterday on speculation the government will increase interest rates to help tame inflation.

Rogers told Chinese investors that the current correction is ``the way the market works,'' and they shouldn't be a ``market timer'' trying to figure out when is the bottom. ``You should get in at a time like now,'' Rogers said. ``I'm starting to think about buying again.'' He said he'd be ``investing in China for the rest of the century.''

About 200 people -- a full house -- paid as much as 50,000 yuan ($7,300) to hear Rogers speak at the two-hour event. The cheapest ticket was 3,800 yuan. Some approached him for his autograph and photos after the speech.

`Learn About Commodities'

Investors should also ``learn about commodities,'' Rogers said. Oil prices, which reached a record in New York trading yesterday, will go higher, he said.

Crude oil for August delivery rose 57 cents, or 0.4 percent, to a record close of $140.21 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, extending its gain this year to 46 percent.

The price of oil will keep rising, ``unless someone finds a major oil field very quickly, in accessible areas,'' Rogers told Chinese investors. ``The oil trend is still high even though the U.S. is trying to curb oil speculation,'' said Sullivan.

Rogers told investors to ``stay away from'' the dollar. The U.S. currency is within 2 percent of a record low against the euro reached in April as the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to stave off an economic recession.

U.S. stocks ``are going to go down,'' Rogers said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9 percent yesterday, extending the decline for the 30-stock measure to 10 percent this month, the worst June since 1930.

The U.S. may be in its ``worst recession since World War II,'' Rogers said, adding that the subprime mortgage crisis in the world's biggest economy ``has many years to go.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Zhao Yidi in Beijing at at [email protected]

Rogers Tells Investors Not to `Give Up' on China (Update3)
By Zhao Yidi

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, told investors not to ``give up'' on Chinese shares after the country's stock index fell almost 50 percent this year.

``Start buying when others say `never again','' Rogers, 65, said today at an investor conference in Nanjing. There is ``much money to be made'' from investments in Chinese stocks, he said.

China's CSI 300 Index has slumped 52 percent from its Oct. 16 peak on concern government measures to curb consumer prices will hurt earnings growth. Rogers, who first started buying Chinese stocks in 1999, said he hasn't sold any of his holdings.

``It's still a growth story in China,'' said Andrew Sullivan, a sales trader at Mainfirst Securities Hong Kong Ltd. ``It still has a good manufacturing industry.''

China's economy expanded 10.6 percent in the first quarter even as export growth cooled and industrial companies' profit growth slowed as oil and gas costs surged. Chinese stocks slumped yesterday on speculation the government will increase interest rates to help tame inflation.

Rogers told Chinese investors that the current correction is ``the way the market works,'' and they shouldn't be a ``market timer'' trying to figure out when is the bottom. ``You should get in at a time like now,'' Rogers said. ``I'm starting to think about buying again.'' He said he'd be ``investing in China for the rest of the century.''

About 200 people -- a full house -- paid as much as 50,000 yuan ($7,300) to hear Rogers speak at the two-hour event. The cheapest ticket was 3,800 yuan. Some approached him for his autograph and photos after the speech.

`Learn About Commodities'

Investors should also ``learn about commodities,'' Rogers said. Oil prices, which reached a record in New York trading yesterday, will go higher, he said.

Crude oil for August delivery rose 57 cents, or 0.4 percent, to a record close of $140.21 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, extending its gain this year to 46 percent.

The price of oil will keep rising, ``unless someone finds a major oil field very quickly, in accessible areas,'' Rogers told Chinese investors. ``The oil trend is still high even though the U.S. is trying to curb oil speculation,'' said Sullivan.

Rogers told investors to ``stay away from'' the dollar. The U.S. currency is within 2 percent of a record low against the euro reached in April as the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to stave off an economic recession.

U.S. stocks ``are going to go down,'' Rogers said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9 percent yesterday, extending the decline for the 30-stock measure to 10 percent this month, the worst June since 1930.

The U.S. may be in its ``worst recession since World War II,'' Rogers said, adding that the subprime mortgage crisis in the world's biggest economy ``has many years to go.''

millionairemind wrote:If that is the case, from the passage below, with SSE currently <2800 and he still has not invested, can we trust what he says in the media???

Hi MM,

<< Rogers, who first started buying Chinese stocks in 1999, said he hasn't sold any of his holdings. >>

He is just thinking of averaging down.

I think a better strategy is to put in a Trailing Stop Loss. That way, one can locked in any profits when the market move against them.

Take care,
Winston