InvestIdeas

Bond markets are moving again, and you should pay attention.

Let's look under the hood together

https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 2984113152

Powell hikes 75 basis point and yet Nasdaq & Bitcoin are going to the moon.

What the heck?

While I disagree with the unfolding market narrative here, let me try to explain why we are witnessing such a rally.

With this 75 bps hike, the Fed just reached its estimate of neutral rate - from here, they aren't contributing to economic overheating anymore


https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 9586295812

The Crazy Market Rally Explained

Powell: ‘‘We are now at levels broadly in line with our estimates of neutral interest rates, and after front-loading our hiking cycle until now we will be much more data dependent going forward’’.

Source: The Macro Compass

https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/ ... ly#details

The US job market has now recovered ALL jobs lost during the pandemic

Today's report is definitely enough to kill any chatters on a Fed pivot but there were many other nuances worth discussing.

In a nutshell: short-term inflationary, long-term bad for growth.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 4188217346

Bear Market Rally or Turning Point? | Alfonso Peccatiello
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=i5eR2CZqLSw

Was this CPI report a breath of fresh air for the Fed and markets?

Yes.

Does it also validate the ''Just Buy Everything''?

No.

A thread on today's US inflation print and its market implications.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 2111173634

The Fed and ECB Are ‘Choking’ the Economy; Horrific Winter Awaits Europe: Alf Peccatiello
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uK9BKs7r2Lk

The Moment of Truth For Markets, Is The "Party Over?" | Alfonso Peccatiello
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ayVGs42NYUs

Putin vs Europe - The Long War
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/ ... ar#details

...is that 12/19 FOMC participants expect Fed Funds between 4.50 - 5.00% by December (!) 2023.

The predictive ability of the Dot Plot is poor, but its signaling effect here is clear - we are ready to keep things really tight for really long.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 0403464194