Alfonso Peccatiello (ALF)

[behappyalways]

Last week, Japanese authorities intervened to try and draw a line in the sand in USDJPY at roughly 146.

Japan has accumulated $1.2 trillion in FX reserves, roughly split as follows:
- $1.0 trillion in foreign securities (mostly USD & EUR bonds)
- $0.2 trillion in deposits at foreign Central Banks or invested in FX derivatives (mostly to lend $)

https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 5173707780

[behappyalways]

Alf@MacroAlf

Something very important is going on in the pension fund industry.
Why was the Bank of England forced to intervene as the lender of last resort?
Is something going seriously wrong?
https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 7725968385


FX Markets Are On Fire
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/ ... re#details

[behappyalways]

The US added 263k jobs last month.

The trend in job creation is moving donwardwards but the 3m moving average remains very robust at +370k.

For inflationary pressures to ease, this number needs to move down to the 100-125k area.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 9474737152

[behappyalways]

Policymakers in many countries are now expecting a recession to hit soon.

But that's not the real deal here.

The biggest problem is that their long-term growth model could well be broken for good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 4013070336

[behappyalways]

The Pension Funds Drama Explained
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/ ... ma#details

[behappyalways]

An important thread on bond markets and systemic risks ahead
https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 2224687104

[behappyalways]

Mastering monetary plumbing is very important to understand global macro.

And if you do, you also understand that the risk of a systemic/liquidity crisis will be materially increasing over the next 6-9 months.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 9035984896

[behappyalways]

Massive Fed meeting, and huge market reaction.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MacroAlf/sta ... 1961769986

[behappyalways]

Bear Market Rally or Turning Point (Again)?
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/ ... ll#details

[behappyalways]

To YOLO or Not To YOLO?
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/ ... ot-to-yolo