Jim Rogers 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[b0rderc0llie]

If stocks are in currencies which are worthless... how does one buy cotton, silver and sugar if they are in the same worthless currency?

I have an idea. If the commodities are in USD, then hedge the currency by shorting the USD.

For myself, I hedge my USD investments by borrowing USD from the bank. In that way, I do not have to worry if USD moves up or down.

[winston]

Jim Rogers: Commodities, ETFs Are the Solution by Tom Lydon

As the markets and exchange traded funds (ETFs) rally from lows seen earlier this year, many experts have thoughts on what’s next. Jim Rogers weighs in with some food for thought about commodities and currencies.

http://www.etftrends.com/2009/06/jim-ro ... ution.html

[kennynah]

For myself, I hedge my USD investments by borrowing USD from the bank. In that way, I do not have to worry if USD moves up or down.

gow do you account for your initial base currency fluctuation against the USD ? by shorting the USD by the same amount that you borrowed....until you fully repay all your USD loans?

[b0rderc0llie]

gow do you account for your initial base currency fluctuation against the USD ? by shorting the USD by the same amount that you borrowed....until you fully repay all your USD loans?

Suppose I want to invest usd $1 in the US market. I borrow usd $1 from the bank, using my sgd assets as collateral. I will keep rolling over the loan, paying the interest but not repaying the capital, for as long as I like.

When I decide to repay the loan, I can choose to liquidiate my US assets to repay in USD, or I can use my SGD assets to convert into USD to pay back.

[kennynah]

i understand...but surely, there's still the exchange flucs between the assets in SGD and USD, right?

suppose, your assets is valued by the bank as S$10mil and you pledge this as collateral for a loan of USD700K...there's the exchange rate pegged by the bank...

months later... suppose you decide to pay off the loan using the collaterized assets...which is valued in SGD, right? surely, the exchange would have fluctuated, no? this is where my question lies... how do you protect yourself against adverse fluctuation?

or have i missed the mark by so much, that you are rolling off your chair laughing now???

[b0rderc0llie]

suppose, your assets is valued by the bank as S$10mil and you pledge this as collateral for a loan of USD700K...there's the exchange rate pegged by the bank...

The USD700K will be invested in the US market. When I want to pay off the loan, the USD700K invested in the US market will be used to pay back the loan. Once the loan is repayed, there is no more hedge for any remaining US assets.

[kennynah]

ok da....next time, i use my fighting spiders as SGD collateral for USD loan...i PM you lah....now talk also no point... but thanks for sharing....

[winston]

Lutnick: Rogers Four Years Early on Dollar Crash by Julie Crawshaw

Jim Rogers is right when he says the dollar is in serious danger, but he’s early — four years early, says Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick says.

“When the U.S. economy starts to pump and grow, which isn’t going to happen until 2014 or 2015, then you’ve got serious inflationary bite,” Lutnick told CNBC.

Lutnick says double-dip recession means Treasuries — and the dollar—will be in demand over next two to three years.

“People are saying, ‘The Chinese are going to quit buying,” Lutnick says.

“And they’re going to buy … what?”

Lutnick believes that economic stresses coming in 2011 and 2012 caused by the commercial real estate market falling apart and leveraged buyouts coming due will constrain inflation for a while.

“I think we’re going to grow for a while,” he says. “And then I’m going to join Jim Rogers’ side and say inflation’s coming.”

Rogers, meanwhile, remains convinced that Fed actions, policy, and government borrowing intended to stem this crisis spell doom for the U.S. dollar.

The rise in Treasuries indicates “crazy inflation coming and gigantic debt, which the U.S. government is going to have to sell,” Rogers told CNBC.

“I’d rather short bonds than short stocks for the foreseeable future.”

“I’m afraid they’re printing so much money that stocks could go to 20,000 or 30,000,” Rogers says. “And I expect there will be a currency crisis later this year or maybe early next.”

The U.S. dollar “is a terribly flawed currency,” Rogers notes.

“Somewhere along the line somebody is going to say, ‘I’m going to start selling mine before everybody else does, and there’s your crisis.’”

This time the crisis will be major currencies, and “it will be widespread,” Rogers says, adding that the fundamentals are getting worse for virtually everything except commodities.

© 2009 Newsmax.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/markets/lu ... 22772.html

[winston]

Jim Rogers Portfolio & Thoughts: A Recent Summary

It's been a while since we last covered Jim Rogers in full, so we figured now would be a good time to assemble a collective update.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/06/jim- ... ecent.html

[winston]

Jim Rogers says has no short positions, selling dollars

SINGAPORE, June 25 (Reuters) - Investor Jim Rogers said on Thursday that he sees prolonged economic problems and while he did not see much worth buying, he is not shorting any assets either.

He repeated a previous comment that he is selling his U.S. dollars and that commodities were the best investment bet.

"I have no shorts for one of the first times in my life," Rogers, a co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, told Reuters TV in Singapore. "On the other hand I don't see much to buy." He said huge borrowing by governments, particularly in the United States and Britain, would hurt their currencies and lead to future problems, though he picked the Canadian dollar as one of the "soundest" currencies.

"I've got out of my pounds. I will be getting out of my (U.S.) dollars soon," he said, repeating his view that commodities were the best place to be with metals having gained more than stocks this year and long-term potential for soft commodities.

"I'd rather be a farmer than a stockbroker for the next couple of years," he said. "No-one you went to school with became a farmer... so we have a shortage of farmers." Rogers, who lives in ethnically Chinese Singapore, co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1970. The fund, since closed, returned 4,200 percent in the next decade, compared with a 50 percent gain in the S&P 500 index.

"If you're in London you're in the wrong place at the wrong time... You gotta move east."