Jim Rogers 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[winston]

Jim Rogers: Short JP Morgan Chase By: Dan Weil

Most bank analysts say JP Morgan Chase is the strongest U.S. financial institution left standing.

Investment guru Jim Rogers disagrees completely.

“I’m short JP Morgan,” he tells Bloomberg TV.

“They have a gigantic derivatives position. Their off-balance-sheet derivative positions are among the top three in the world,” if not the largest, he said.

Rogers said earlier this year he was short Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and a host of other big financials via an exchange-trade fund. We all know how that turned out.

The bank’s credit-card loans also are a disaster waiting to happen, Rogers says.

“There are plenty of reasons to short JP Morgan, but that doesn’t mean it can’t rally for a while, and it probably will.”

As for the U.S. bank industry in general, “I don’t think it’s in good shape,” Rogers says. “They should have a good rally after their huge declines. But are they sound again? Absolutely not.”

He sees the recent run-up in stock prices as a bear market rally.

“I don’t see how there can be much more,” Rogers says. “The world is in serious trouble. There are more bankruptcies and failures to come.”

That doesn’t mean the rally is over, he says. It could last a few days, weeks, or even months.

“But this problem isn’t over yet, and the American government is making it worse by spending obscene amounts of money on the wrong thing,” Rogers warns.

Others see the bear market rally of which Rogers so clearly warns.

“There is nothing new here, every serious bear market has rallies like this,” James Melcher, president of hedge fund Balestra Capital, told The New York Times.

© 2009 Newsmax.

[winston]

Rogers: Washington Making It Worse By: Julie Crawshaw

Jim Rogers says he isn't buying stocks these days.

"I'd love to invest in equity markets around the world, (but) I can't find any I want to buy shares in, including the U.S.," Rogers told Fox News.

"The world's got a serious problem, mainly because these guys in Washington don't understand what's going on and they're making it worse."

The only place other than currency Rogers advises putting money now is commodities.

“We’re not going to have a period where the people who produce real assets are going to take over from the people who are money shufflers, and the power is moving to the farmers.”

All of which is great for commodities, Rogers notes. “We’ve got the lowest inventories in 50 years for agricultural products,” he says.

Fundamentals at Citibank and General Motors are not getting better, Rogers observes, but fundamentals for commodities are improving rapidly.

“Nobody can get a loan to open a mine … the world’s oil reserves are in fairly rapid decline,” Rogers points out, causing the on-hand supply of all commodities to dwindle, which pushes up prices.

Rogers might be early.

U.S. farmers are preparing to plant record amounts of soybeans and demand for corn is falling, driving prices to the lowest levels in more than two years, Bloomberg reports.

“This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s,” Commodity Information Systems President Bill Gary says.

“I don’t see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years.”

© 2009 Newsmax.

[winston]

Jim Rogers: How He's Investing After the Crisis

As the global investor and adventurer offers lessons to his daughters in a new book, he still favors commodities and scorns diversification

By David Bogoslaw

Veteran investor and world traveler Jim Rogers' new book, A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing, will be published by Random House on Apr. 28. BusinessWeek investing reporter David Bogoslaw spoke by telephone with Rogers, who now lives in Singapore with his wife and two young daughters (ages five and one). Here's what he had to say about investing, the financial crisis, and lessons learned.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/co ... 131044.htm

[winston]

Jim Rogers: Diversification a Scam By: Julie Crawshaw

Diversification is something that stock brokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn't get sued for making bad investment choices for clients, says commodities bull Jim Rogers.

"Henry Ford never diversified, Bill Gates didn't diversify," Rogers told Business Week.

"The way to get rich is to put your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket very carefully. And make sure you have the right basket."

Rogers notes that many diversified investors have lost huge sums of money over the past couple of years and advises investors to stick with what they know and forget about competing with Warren Buffet.

If the world economy is going to revive, commodities are going to lead it back up,Rogers says.

If the world economy is not going to revive, commodities are still the place to be especially with governments printing so much money.

Diversification is the end result of applying asset allocation strategies, which derive from modern portfolio theory, an offshoot of economics from the early 1950s.

Asset allocation holds that investors should combine various asset classes that do not correlate perfectly to achieve a diversity that protects some asset classes when others are adversely affected.

"There is a saying that you have to concentrate to get rich and diversify to stay rich, and over the past couple of years that has not worked, Paul Vaillancourt, senior vice-president of Franklin Templeton Investments, told Canada.com.

I don't want to say diversification is a myth, but it is overdone."

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk ... 05873.html

[winston]

Rogers Skeptical On This Stock Rally By: Dan Weil

Investment icon Jim Rogers may have covered the short bank stock positions that he established last year, but that doesnt mean he has suddenly turned bullish on stocks or the economy.

I'm am skeptical about the [stock] rally and the world economy for the next year or two or three, he told Barrons in a recent interview.

But he remains a bull on commodities. if stocks go down, I can make money with commodities, Rogers says.

He doesnt believe in the stock rally in emerging markets any more than in developed ones.

I've sold all emerging markets stock, except the ones in China, Rogers says.

I've bought more Chinese shares in October and November during the panic, but I have not bought China or any other stock markets since then. I'm not buying anything in China right now because the Chinese market ran up maybe 50 percent since last November.

That gain has made China the world's strongest stock market over the past six months, he points out. I don't like jumping into something that has been that run up, Rogers says.

Still, I'm not thinking of selling these stocks either. I think if it goes down, I'll buy more.

Rogers says he has been buying commodities recently through the four indices named after him.

Other experts, such as Marc Faber and Steve Leuthold, part with Rogers, saying U.S. stocks can rise substantially from current levels.

© 2009 Newsmax.

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk ... 07097.html

[winston]

Summary of Jim Rogers' Recent Portfolio

Jim Rogers has been in the media a lot over the past couple weeks and we wanted to provide a summary of these thoughts. He is a noted investor and founder of the highly successful yet now defunct Quantum Fund (with George Soros). Rogers has been out providing his opinion on various topics and giving us a deeper glance at some of his portfolio plays. We've compiled a list of some of his major positions below. Firstly, we'll examine some of the plays he's revealed just over this past week.

http://www.marketfolly.com/2009/03/summ ... folio.html

[winston]

By Halia Pavliva, Bloomberg

Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he is concerned some institutional gold reserves may be sold.

“I own some gold, but I am not buying at the moment because the IMF, which is one of the largest owners of gold in the world, is desperate to sell its gold,” Rogers said in an interview with Bloomberg radio. “I’m not selling my gold.”

The IMF “is trying to get permission from everybody,” Rogers said. “If and when they sell their gold, they may set a bottom. Who knows? It may go down to $700. They got a lot of gold to sell. If it does, I hope I’m brave enough and smart enough to buy more.”

[winston]

Dollar Rally Will End, Rogers Says; May Short Stocks (Update1) By Chen Shiyin and Haslinda Amin

May 12 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s rally is set to end in a “currency crisis,” investor Jim Rogers said, adding that he may bet on a slide in equities after they jumped 34 percent in the U.S. in nine weeks.

The rally in the dollar has been driven by investors covering their short sales, Rogers, 66, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Singapore. He may consider adding to his holdings of the yen and prefers the euro to the dollar or the pound, the investor added.

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” Rogers. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”

The dollar has rallied against all of the so-called Group of 10 currencies except the yen over the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. currency was at $1.3576 per euro today from $1.3582.

So-called short sellers borrow securities and sell them on hopes of capturing a profit by replacing them after prices fall.

The rally in U.S. stocks also signals a “correction,” Rogers said. He’s avoiding equities for the next two to three years because prospects haven’t changed, he added.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 34 percent from its March 9 low, erasing its losses for the year. The gauge plunged 38 percent in 2008, its worst year since the Great Depression.

‘Time for a Correction’

“The market in the U.S. went up very powerfully for nine weeks in a row so of course it’s time for a correction,” Rogers said. “Fundamentals haven’t changed if you ask me. I don’t see the stock market as a great place to be in the next two to three years.”

Equity markets may dip below recent lows as more troubles lay ahead in the financial market, Rogers said in an April 13 interview with Bloomberg TV. Rogers is the author of “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.”

Rogers owns some Chinese and Japanese stocks, and also continues to hold some shares of airlines, he said without naming any companies. Stocks in emerging nations that supply natural resources may also perform better than U.S. shares, Rogers added.

Commodities are still among the best bets for investors because of constrained capacity, the investor said. He has been buying agriculture-related commodities and prefers silver to gold, palladium and platinum, Rogers added.

[b0rderc0llie]

he said for some time now...dollar rally will end...

i say... market will crash in the future too....sure will happen one...

If I can hold a position till a certain scenario is realized in the future, profits can be made. I do not have to be correct in the short term, as long as in the longer term I am correct. The costs I have to pay is the cost of keeping the position, that is, opportunity cost and carrying costs.

[kennynah]

to be successful at short term plays demand that traders possess specific skillsets....long term plays require another set of skills....

i dont believe they are similar.... different risks and rewards in both different situations...

one can be long term wrong but short term profitable...and conversely..

do i even make sense...hahahahaha....

talk talk only lah.... pass time...