Bill Gross

[Musicwhiz]

He's right on the title.

Looking back on 2008 and 2009, most people would have simply wished for a return OF investment, rather than return ON investment. It's sad but true.

[millionairemind]

Investment Outlook
Bill Gross | January 2010
Let’s Get Fisical
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+M ... y+2010.htm

If 2008 was the year of financial crisis and 2009 the year of healing via monetary and fiscal stimulus packages, then 2010 appears likely to be the year of “exit strategies,” during which investors should consider economic fundamentals and asset markets that will soon be priced in a world less dominated by the government sector. If, in 2009, PIMCO recommended shaking hands with the government, we now ponder “which” government, and caution that the days of carefree check writing leading to debt issuance without limit or interest rate consequences may be numbered for all countries.

Additionally, if exit strategies proceed as planned, all U.S. and U.K. asset markets may suffer from the absence of the near $2 trillion of government checks written in 2009. It seems no coincidence that stocks, high yield bonds, and other risk assets have thrived since early March, just as this “juice” was being squeezed into financial markets. If so, then most “carry” trades in credit, duration, and currency space may be at risk in the first half of 2010 as the markets readjust to the absence of their “sugar daddy.”

[winston]

Exercises In Supreme Hypocrisy: Bill Gross Edition by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2010

In a pathological example of nearly clinical hypocrisy, PIMCO's Bill Gross yesterday dedicated 4 meandering essay pages full of polemical ramblings to the characterization of America's sad political and financial hybrid reality.

Yet the billionaire's saddest message is precisely the self-deluded aggrandizement that Gross decries yet willfully takes advantage of every single day. Because after bemoaning the fate of America's broken political system, and ridiculing the Federal Reserve's kleptocratic-friendly ways, it is precisely people like the PIMCO chairman that are most guilty of taking advantage of every single loophole presented to them, even as they criticize just this activity.

We were so appalled with the result of this query that we decided against checking further back in time to see just what the price of bribery for prior presidents was. However, we did check how much of a "special interest" PIMCO itself is - to our (lack of) surprise, Mr. Gross, your company has spent at least $431,101 to curry favor with assorted representatives of the government in precisely the very action whose daily occurrence you lament

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exerci ... ss-edition

[mojo_]

If so, then most “carry” trades in credit, duration, and currency space may be at risk in the first half of 2010 as the markets readjust to the absence of their “sugar daddy.”

Thought many "gurus" say the "sugar high" will run out only in 2H2010?
And a few say the "sweetness" is actually being spread out over a few years?

[kennynah]

how do you pronounce his name ..is it "gr-awes" or "gr-ohs" ?

[iam802]

I believe this article is published Dec last year...can't confirm date. (Dec 10, 2009??)

====
Pimco's Gross: No Fed move before 2011

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B84OI20091210

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth is likely to remain weak in 2010, forcing the Federal Reserve to keep short-term interest rates at current ultra-low levels throughout the year and even in early 2011, influential bond fund manager Bill Gross said on Wednesday.

Gross, who runs Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund, sees job creation in the United States poised to resume soon, but said it would likely run at an average of 100,000 a month in the early stages -- too small to meaningfully bring down the unemployment rate.

The Fed will keep rates at rock-bottom levels until the nation shows "stable and substantial growth," he told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York, via a teleconferencing TV link from his headquarters in Newport Beach, California.

Because even a very small increase interest rates could cause the market to expect much greater hikes, the U.S. central bank will be forced to act very cautiously, said Gross, who as Pimco's co-chief investment officer helps oversee more than $940 billion in assets.

"If they move by even 25 or 50 basis points, the market will interpret that as 200, 300, 400 to come," he said. "And so the Fed is cemented (at ultra-low levels) until the economy can stand 'the shock' of higher interest rates that that signal would produce."

Gross, in a follow-up email message, said there is a possibility the U.S. central bank could keep interest rates near the current levels near zero percent even in early 2011. There is a 20 percent chance of that, he said, adding, "That's a really seat-of-the pants, flying blindfold estimate."

Gross highlighted to the Summit that Goldman Sachs recently told clients that the Fed could keep its benchmark federal funds rate -- the rate that banks charge each other for overnight lending -- close to zero percent quite possibly throughout 2011.

At the Fed's policy-setting meeting next week, Gross said that while some of his Pimco colleagues believe there could be some language changes in its accompanying statement at the close on the meeting, "That's not my view."

"The Fed has hawks and doves. The doves have won the battle up until this point and they think they continue to win the battle because the doves have the major players, including the Fed chairman," Gross said, referring to Ben Bernanke.

Policy makers known as hawks are those who are most emphasize the need to control inflation, a stance that favors tighter monetary policy, while doves are those who worry more about the need to stimulate the economy, prompting a call for looser monetary policy.

Gross added that he isn't entirely convinced that the Fed's quantitative easing -- extraordinary measures designed to stimulate the economy in addition to its near zero percent interest rates -- will end on schedule.

"There are so many uncertainties and I think the Fed recognizes that, and not just from the standpoint of the policy rate but the standpoint of quantitative easing," he said.

After this year's rally, U.S. equities are now priced at levels that anticipate a stronger economic recovery than Pimco's baseline outlook would suggest, he added.

The long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, meanwhile, is vulnerable to the gradual wind-down of the Fed's quantitative easing measures expected in the new year, he said.

[LenaHuat]

If so, then most “carry” trades in credit, duration, and currency space may be at risk in the first half of 2010 as the markets readjust to the absence of their “sugar daddy.”

Thought many "gurus" say the "sugar high" will run out only in 2H2010?
And a few say the "sweetness" is actually being spread out over a few years?

Bill Gross is right on the spot abt 1H2010. Do read and re-read him and Mohammed El-Erian.
I consider PIMCO one of the best macro readers.

[LenaHuat]

Gross' Feb letter is out. Read this:-
Ring of Fire

[winston]

Gordon Brown's election strategy was dealt a further blow today after the boss of the world's biggest bond house warned investors to avoid the UK economy.

Bill Gross, who runs Pacific Investment Management Co mutual fund, said the British economy was lying on 'a bed of nitroglycerine'.

In his monthly newsletter, Mr Gross said: 'The UK is a must to avoid. Its gilts are resting on a bed of nitroglycerine.

'High debt with the potential to devalue its currency present high risks for bond investors.'

Source: Daily Mail

[winston]

So the emerging markets are going to grow on their own ? Like there would be a series of 4t stimulus programs ?


Pimco's Gross: China, India, Brazil Better Bets Than U.S. By: Dan Weil

Bond management king Bill Gross favors investing in emerging markets over developed ones, thanks to superior economic performance in the former.

“Risk/growth-oriented assets, as well as currencies, should be directed toward Asian/developing countries less levered and less easily prone to bubbling,” Gross, chief investment officer at Pimco, wrote in his monthly investment outlook.

“When the price is right, go where the growth is, where the consumer sector is still in its infancy, where national debt levels are low, where reserves are high, and where trade surpluses promise to generate additional reserves for years to come.”

In other words, investors should seek economies that now focus on savings, but will gradually shift to consumption, Gross says.

“China, India, Brazil and more miniature-sized examples of each would be excellent examples.”

As developed economies such as the United States and Europe work to slash their humongous debt burden, they will lose their positions as drivers of the global economy, Gross says.

“Invest less risky, fixed income assets in many of these same (emerging market) countries if possible.”

If you need a developed market, try Canada, Gross says.

“Its conservative banks never did participate in the housing crisis, and it stayed closer to fiscal balance than any other country.”

When it comes to emerging markets, Mark Mobius, chairman of Templeton Asset Management, is probably the biggest bull.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he expressed particular enthusiasm for stocks in China and Brazil.

http://moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Pimco-G ... /id/348883